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John Petersen

 
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  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    I don't think the revenue bump is anywhere near as important as successful completion of a three-year performance test by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia's counterpart to the DOE. Completion of a test of that magnitude is exactly what a company needs to begin the selling process in earnest in places like Australia.
    Dec 28 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    There will probably be at least a couple more rounds of financing like this one before BCON is able to stand on its own two feet. Getting DOE money to build a facility and prove a technology is a good thing, but until the technology advances to a point where BCON is making money, either the old stockholders have to put up more money to cover losses or new stockholders have to come in with new money. The only alternative is closing the doors.

    Stock prices always decline in the wake of an offering, but they usually perform better after people are done being mad. Ener1 did a very similar transaction on September 3 and is up about $0.50 since then. Hopefully BCON will get a boost too.
    Dec 23 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    The problem with prophecy is nobody is always right, even though I want to be. That's why I always push the diversification thing even though I don't do it well myself.
    Dec 22 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    I'm not aware of anything particular going on at ZBB but that really doesn't mean much because I try real hard to stay away from the third rail of inside information. ZBB is another one of those companies that's been beaten down pretty badly and wouldn't take a whole lot of good news to score a quick double or triple.

    I wish C&D had turned out better but things like an intangible asset impairment of the magnitude they took are terribly hard to predict. I've been mentally predicting that outcome for HEV for a couple years now and it hasn't happened so my prophecy record when it comes to asset impairment is zero for two.
    Dec 22 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    It looks to be structured similarly to a note offering that Ener1 closed in early September, but the prospectus I can currently pull down from the SEC has an awful lot of blanks that will be filled in within a day or two. FWIW Ener1's stock has firmed a lot since the note offering.

    I have to believe that a big part of BCONs low stock price ties back to its weak financial condition and a good-sized preferred stock offering will certainly solve that issue.

    Many investors fret and worry about "dilution" whenever a financing transaction comes along. The problem is they think in terms of a company with a fixed number of shares and have a visceral negative reaction to owning .00009% of a bigger company instead of owning .0001% of a smaller one.

    I take a bartenders view. Before an offering each stockholder had a mug of beer sitting on the bar. Somebody came along and added a shot of whiskey and then removed a shot glass of the mixture. Any way you look at it, each stockholder has a stronger after the trade than he did beforehand. Ultimately it takes money to make money and BCON will be able to do some wonderful things with the additional working capital.

    I believe BCON is close to starting its climb out of the trough of disillusionment. Another financing will give it the wherewithal to do that.
    Dec 22 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    C&D will most definitely be on a solid footing. It's pro forma financial statements are on page 119 of its proxy statement and show it emerging with about $100 million in equity and $77 million in working captial.

    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

    The big unknown is the future market price. With 600 million shares out the book value should be in the $0.17 per share range, which is just a hair off from today's $0.18 close. Exide and Enersys both trade at roughly 2x book value which would imply a high-end market price of $0.34 for C&D. What the market actually does is anybody's guess.

    My bet is that they'll do a reverse split in the 1 for 10 to 1 for 20 range to move the price up high enough for a national market listing, but that's all speculation on my part.
    Dec 21 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    I think it was entirely due to market conditions where a couple big holders that had to sell for reasons unrelated to Axion's business started pushing and shoving around the pay window and forced too much stock into a developing market too quickly.

    The current price for a hundred share block in the open market is the same price Blackrock, Manatuck Hill and Special Situations paid last December for three blocks of 8 million shares each. When you consider that Axion's entire trading volume for all of 2009 was less than 8 million shares, being one of four buyers of 8 million shares each would not be attractive to somebody looking for a short swing trading profit.

    Since last December, Axion has announced a relationship with Norfolk Southern to develop a hybrid retrofit for existing diesel locomotives at an estimated cost of $500,000 to $750,000 per unit and published results of a long-term testing program with BMW.

    I've been here before with other small companies and know that the market takes the time it needs to absorb the excess supply. Once the excess supply dries up, the price typically rebounds. I have no idea how much longer that process will take, but certainly hope it ends soon because it's embarrassing to have my run-away favorite trading at this price.
    Dec 21 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    The fundamentals that made ACPW attractive in 2008 because of its balance sheet, business progress and fine technology make AXPW equally attractive. I would never have expected the crushing selling pressure Axion encountered over the last year and believe its stock is at the bottom of the trough of disillusionment. The only thing I can't predict with certainty is when the rebound will occur or how sharp it will be.
    Dec 21 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    They've been selling systems in China for a while and that activity is what convinced them a Beijing office was worthwhile.

    I think China will be a wonderful market for ACPW because like many developing countries grid stability is a problem. When I spoke with ACPWs CEO he told me that many places in China only promise 99.1% reliability. Unfortunately things like datacenters and heavily automated factories require 99.99999% reliability. That means they have to install a power infrastructure solution or leave their entire operation at risk.

    Over a long period of time China may become a less desirable market, but there will be many years of profitable growth in the interim.
    Dec 21 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Power: A Solid Investment Opportunity and a Valuable Object Lesson for Investors [View article]
    The one thing ACPW had which Beacon doesn't have is working capital. I'm impressed by the progress Beacon is making with its installation and expect its revenues to start ramping soon. Until it gets a little more healthy from a balance sheet perspective I don't know that I'd look for a breakout. Companies that need cash always get beaten up on financing. So my inclination would be cautious until the financial position improves.
    Dec 20 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long Active Power [View article]
    Isadore, this is one of those times when reasonable men can look at the same evidence and reach different conclusions. I wrote this article at the request of another Seeking Alpha contributor who wanted to know why I was long ACPW. I've explained my reasons and am happy with them. You've explained your reasons for thinking that another company makes more sense. Neither of us is wrong, we just have different opinions.
    Aug 18 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long Active Power [View article]
    Isadore, like children small companies grow at their own rates and frequently our expectations lead to disappointment that's a bit out of place. Flywheel systems are very complex and have a long sales cycle to begin with. Right now, the numbers all seem to be heading in the right direction. So I'm more than happy to give ACPW the time it needs to continue implementing the plan.
    Aug 18 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long Active Power [View article]
    I've always read that consistency and diversification were the key to successful investing. Let's hope the future evolves the way we think it can.
    Aug 16 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long Active Power [View article]
    adamnb, I think you're probably referring to my quarterly update at the beginning of this month on how cheap continues to outperform cool. The link to that article is:

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    The link to an archive page that will take you to all my prior articles is:

    seekingalpha.com/autho...
    Aug 14 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long Active Power [View article]
    ari5000, I have a Twitter account johnlpetersen but am enough of a luddite to have qualms about yet another electronic service to keep track of. I'm still using a Motorola Razr because I don't want the connectivity of an iPhone even though I believe it a superior product. I'm sure to join the new millennium sooner or later, but not just yet.
    Aug 12 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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