John Petersen

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

The ultimate silliness of the AGW debate is that regardless of what nanny decides for the US and Europe, other parts of the world will simply rub their hands together and say "Oh goodie, more for us." The hard reality is that total global consumption of carbon will be a flatline in either event.

How Natural Gas Can Save the U.S. Economy

I've been at least tangentially involved in the oil and gas business since I graduated law school and for most of that time NG maintained a fairly constant 6:1 price parity with oil that only gave a slight edge to oil based on the relative ease of transporting it. With the current disparity between NG prices and oil prices, it's a fairly safe bet that all industrial users who can switch have already done so. This really is beginning to look like a fundamental disconnect between NG prices and oil prices that strongly militates in favor of moving a big chunk of the transportation burden to NG, and if we want to take it a step further NG-HEVs like the Camry.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy (Part II)

Another great article that only leaves one bone to pick. Coal and nuclear have to run 24/7 at stable levels or they break. NG can ramp up or down at the whim of the operator. To maximize the efficiency of base-load coal and nuclear, we need to get to cost effective energy storage so that none of the excess electricity is sent to ground. Then we can rely on a combination of NG, wind, solar and more storage to take care of daily and seasonal power demand peaks. Regardless, we need every tool in the box and a number that have not been invented yet. Thanks for taking a rational macro approach to a problem that most want to ignore.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

From a political perspective the great thing about long-term plans is you're never held accountable if the plans don't work. Instead the blame will fall on your successor, or, if you're a good enough planner, your successor's successor.

One of my favorite themes is that there are 6 billion people on this planet that want to earn a small piece of the lifestyle 500 million of us enjoy and for the first time in history, most of them know there is more to life than bare subsistence. That puts us in a position where the greatest challenge we face as a species is overcoming chronic shortages of water, food, energy and every commodity you can imagine. Alternative energy technologies that reduce waste and increase efficiency are ethically good. Alternative energy technologies that reduce waste of one resource but increase waste of another by a like amount are ethically neutral. Alternative energy technologies that reduce waste of one resources but increase waste of another by a greater amount are ethically wrong.

In the final analysis, several billion poor Asians don't care if we burn less fossil fuels because it makes their supply problems less vexing. We really need to focus on sustainable action to minimize waste in all it's pernicious forms; even if it's not as much fun for the political class.

It's always nice to read an article from another heretic.

Investing in the Pickens Plan, One Year Later

Natural gas has gotten the bum's rush by the DOE of late but that perspective may well change in coming months as it becomes more clear that many of the alternative energy beauty queens (including wind and PV solar power) are subject to substantial raw materials input constraints that will severely limit their ability to contribute to the ultimate solution. I'll be starting a series on these issues toward the end of the month.

Making Natural Gas Transportation a Reality

Fitz, another wonderfully informative piece (as usual). A new article came out in Wired this morning and really made my day. It will probably leave you feeling a bit vindicated too.

The City of Seattle has reported that its fleet of plug-in Prius retrofits only averaged 51 mpg over the last year as compared to the 100 mpg everybody expected. Apparently comparable results are being seen by the Idaho National Laboratory which is following a nationwide test fleet.

The title is priceless - Plug-in Hybrids: More Hype than Hope?

www.wired.com/cars/coo.../

H.R. 1835: Legislation for Natural Gas Transportation

While I spend all my time writing about storage, I'm a firm believer that we need to use every available tool in the box and focus first on slowing the export of cash in exchange for oil. As that battle progresses, we can devote more attention to building out new power generating facilities and the smart grid and developing EV solutions that work. The biggest problem I see with trying to force longer term solutions into the short term is that you don't give the key technologies enough time to really mature. In my mind, this is one of those journeys of a thousand miles and I don't think any of us can do more than vaguely describe some of the mile-markers we are likely to pass en-route to the finish line. I'll guarantee that none of us can accurately describe 2060.

Book Review: Robert Hefner's 'The Grand Energy Transition'

Another great article Fitz! I just did a quick Google search using the terms methane and atmosphere. I found references to Mars, Pluto and an extrasolar planet in the first page of results. I also seem to recall something from high school science about the earth having a methane rich atmosphere before the first life forms emerged. I'm a big fan of some alternatives and an unrepentant critic of others. To my simple way of thinking the only relevant question is "Are we better off with it than we would be without it?" Using that metric, natural gas will always win. Solar and wind may be better still, but the core technologies that exist today are not as good as they will be in the future. So let's take the baby steps and work toward the plentiful energy future that Heffner, Milunovich and others foresee.

Plug-In Natural Gas Hybrid Vehicles: A Game Changer

Way to go Fitzman! I spend all my time discussing the battery and storage sector because that's what I know best, but we have to stop assuming that what we currently know and already have is the best that will ever be. The times they are a changing and the rate of change will do nothing but accelerate. A good step in the right direction would be recognizing that none of the proposed solutions people are pounding the table over today are perfect and we need to welcome new ideas and test them thoroughly before accepting or condemning them.