John Petersen

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

The ultimate silliness of the AGW debate is that regardless of what nanny decides for the US and Europe, other parts of the world will simply rub their hands together and say "Oh goodie, more for us." The hard reality is that total global consumption of carbon will be a flatline in either event.

Why Is Congress Agnostic About Natural Gas?

The biggest problem NG faces is that nobody understands that it's different from its traditionally more important sister oil. My back of the napkin performance figures for a CNG HEV are stunning. The darned thing would be within 10% of an EV in terms of CO2 emissions and at least 25% cheaper to buy. When you factor in the reality that all of the fuel revenue would stay in North America instead of going elsewhere the logic is undeniable. I find it particularly curious that Toyota and Honda seem to be stepping away from the plug-in circus and taking a hard look at natural gas.

China Repeats U.S. Energy Policy Mistakes

Fitz, I have a new article coming out today (I hope) that does a 10-year roll forward of gasoline prices based on an assumption that the 17.5% annual rate of increase we had for the last decade will continue for the next decade. You'll be appalled to know that if prices continue to increase at historical rates, we can look forward to $5.60 gasoline by 2014 and $12.54 gasoline by 2019. The old line from WW-II was there are no atheists in foxholes. The same concept should apply much more quickly to CNG agnostics.

How Natural Gas Can Save the U.S. Economy

I've been at least tangentially involved in the oil and gas business since I graduated law school and for most of that time NG maintained a fairly constant 6:1 price parity with oil that only gave a slight edge to oil based on the relative ease of transporting it. With the current disparity between NG prices and oil prices, it's a fairly safe bet that all industrial users who can switch have already done so. This really is beginning to look like a fundamental disconnect between NG prices and oil prices that strongly militates in favor of moving a big chunk of the transportation burden to NG, and if we want to take it a step further NG-HEVs like the Camry.

Making Natural Gas Transportation a Reality

Fitz, another wonderfully informative piece (as usual). A new article came out in Wired this morning and really made my day. It will probably leave you feeling a bit vindicated too.

The City of Seattle has reported that its fleet of plug-in Prius retrofits only averaged 51 mpg over the last year as compared to the 100 mpg everybody expected. Apparently comparable results are being seen by the Idaho National Laboratory which is following a nationwide test fleet.

The title is priceless - Plug-in Hybrids: More Hype than Hope?

www.wired.com/cars/coo.../

H.R. 1835: Legislation for Natural Gas Transportation

While I spend all my time writing about storage, I'm a firm believer that we need to use every available tool in the box and focus first on slowing the export of cash in exchange for oil. As that battle progresses, we can devote more attention to building out new power generating facilities and the smart grid and developing EV solutions that work. The biggest problem I see with trying to force longer term solutions into the short term is that you don't give the key technologies enough time to really mature. In my mind, this is one of those journeys of a thousand miles and I don't think any of us can do more than vaguely describe some of the mile-markers we are likely to pass en-route to the finish line. I'll guarantee that none of us can accurately describe 2060.

Book Review: Robert Hefner's 'The Grand Energy Transition'

Another great article Fitz! I just did a quick Google search using the terms methane and atmosphere. I found references to Mars, Pluto and an extrasolar planet in the first page of results. I also seem to recall something from high school science about the earth having a methane rich atmosphere before the first life forms emerged. I'm a big fan of some alternatives and an unrepentant critic of others. To my simple way of thinking the only relevant question is "Are we better off with it than we would be without it?" Using that metric, natural gas will always win. Solar and wind may be better still, but the core technologies that exist today are not as good as they will be in the future. So let's take the baby steps and work toward the plentiful energy future that Heffner, Milunovich and others foresee.

Buffett on Alt Energy

It's also worth noting that MidAmerican recently bought a 10% stake in BYD for $230 million. BYD claims to be the world's largest manufacturer of Li-ion batteries for portable electronics and has recently introduced a PHEV-60 in China. Since the PHEV costs almost 60% more than the gas powered version of the same car, it's hard to tell whether the PHEV is intended as a serious product or a PR tool. In any event, I view the BYD investment as recognition that the energy storage sector is due to catch up with the rest of the AE industry.

Plug-In Natural Gas Hybrid Vehicles: A Game Changer

Way to go Fitzman! I spend all my time discussing the battery and storage sector because that's what I know best, but we have to stop assuming that what we currently know and already have is the best that will ever be. The times they are a changing and the rate of change will do nothing but accelerate. A good step in the right direction would be recognizing that none of the proposed solutions people are pounding the table over today are perfect and we need to welcome new ideas and test them thoroughly before accepting or condemning them.

Obama 'Shines' Natural Gas

AMEN Fitzman