John Petersen

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

The ultimate silliness of the AGW debate is that regardless of what nanny decides for the US and Europe, other parts of the world will simply rub their hands together and say "Oh goodie, more for us." The hard reality is that total global consumption of carbon will be a flatline in either event.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy (Part II)

Another great article that only leaves one bone to pick. Coal and nuclear have to run 24/7 at stable levels or they break. NG can ramp up or down at the whim of the operator. To maximize the efficiency of base-load coal and nuclear, we need to get to cost effective energy storage so that none of the excess electricity is sent to ground. Then we can rely on a combination of NG, wind, solar and more storage to take care of daily and seasonal power demand peaks. Regardless, we need every tool in the box and a number that have not been invented yet. Thanks for taking a rational macro approach to a problem that most want to ignore.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy

From a political perspective the great thing about long-term plans is you're never held accountable if the plans don't work. Instead the blame will fall on your successor, or, if you're a good enough planner, your successor's successor.

One of my favorite themes is that there are 6 billion people on this planet that want to earn a small piece of the lifestyle 500 million of us enjoy and for the first time in history, most of them know there is more to life than bare subsistence. That puts us in a position where the greatest challenge we face as a species is overcoming chronic shortages of water, food, energy and every commodity you can imagine. Alternative energy technologies that reduce waste and increase efficiency are ethically good. Alternative energy technologies that reduce waste of one resource but increase waste of another by a like amount are ethically neutral. Alternative energy technologies that reduce waste of one resources but increase waste of another by a greater amount are ethically wrong.

In the final analysis, several billion poor Asians don't care if we burn less fossil fuels because it makes their supply problems less vexing. We really need to focus on sustainable action to minimize waste in all it's pernicious forms; even if it's not as much fun for the political class.

It's always nice to read an article from another heretic.

Investing in the Pickens Plan, One Year Later

Natural gas has gotten the bum's rush by the DOE of late but that perspective may well change in coming months as it becomes more clear that many of the alternative energy beauty queens (including wind and PV solar power) are subject to substantial raw materials input constraints that will severely limit their ability to contribute to the ultimate solution. I'll be starting a series on these issues toward the end of the month.