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John Petersen
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John Petersen is the executive vice president and chief financial officer of ePower Engine Systems, Inc., a Kentucky-based enterprise that has developed, built and demonstrated an engine-dominant diesel-electric hybrid drivetrain for long-haul heavy trucks that promises fuel savings of 25 to 35... More
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Fefer Petersen & Co.
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  • Using Trading Volume To Estimate Liquidity

    One of the more important measures investors consider when analyzing a stock is it's relative liquidity. Sometimes it's obvious and sometimes you need to dig a little deeper. The following table identifies the 16 companies in my current tracking list and ranks them in order of declining liquidity as measured by the number of times per year their issued and outstanding stock turns over in the open market.

    As a general rule, companies toward the top of the list have a lot of interest from hot money and companies toward the bottom have little or no interest from hot money.

    A123 SystemsAONE146,862,868719,888,7004.90
    Exide TechnologiesXIDE78,283,690248,781,5003.18
    Tesla MotorsTSLA104,604,044299,374,9002.86
    Johnson ControlsJCI680,455,2031,441,801,8002.12
    Maxwell TechnologiesMXWL28,212,49459,471,9002.11
    Active PowerACPW95,427,235167,400,1001.75
    Kandi TechnologiesKNDI27,447,59329,572,0001.08
    UQM TechnologiesUQM36,531,53036,241,9000.99
    China BAK BatteryCBAK63,816,27654,441,2000.85
    Valence TechnologyVLNC169,976,618144,226,4000.85
    Altair NanotechnologiesALTI69,452,48750,895,9000.73
    Axion PowerAXPW.OB113,211,09178,538,2000.69
    ZBB EnergyZBB41,055,07928,436,6000.69
    Ultralife CorporationULBI17,360,43511,280,6000.65
    Highpower InternationalHPJ13,582,1066,188,7000.46

    While Turnover Frequency is not an obvious metric for retail investors, it is a critical pricing consideration when a company is negotiating deal terms for a new offering and the general rule is the lower the Turnover Frequency, the higher the discount.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

    Apr 28 12:43 PM | Link | 61 Comments
  • Paul Graham's Startup Curve – Too True To Be Funny
    The most recent SAI Chart of the Day, Paul Graham's Startup Curve, was far too accurate to be funny. It shows his view of the process startup companies must go through on their way to becoming viable business enterprises. While I've used the Gartner Group's Hype Cycle graph to describe the process for several years, I think the Startup Curve is even closer to the truth. So without further adieu here it is:

    The good news for investors is that I think many companies in the energy storage sector are somewhere in the Wiggles of False Hope and appoaching The Promised Land. The bad news is the Wiggles of False Hope can last longer than many investors imagine. That makes attention to detail and recognition of progress essential character traits for elephant hunters. The process takes time and can't be rushed, but once the major technical risks are past, the payoff for long-suffering patience can be enormous.
    Mar 16 1:21 AM | Link | 4 Comments
  • Tracking XIDE Since July 2008
    A number of readers have asked recently whether I'm still bullish on Exide Technologies (XIDE) and I thought I'd share my current thinking in a brief Instablog. The following graph shows my calculated 10-, 20-, 50- and 200-day volume weighted moving average prices for Exide since July 2008 when I started writing about investing in the energy storage sector. While the price is not quite at the 5-year low of $2.29 for the 10-day WMA it's darned close.

    The thing with Exide is that it's at a bare bones valuation right now. The darned stock trades at 60% of book value and a measly 8% of sales. They are facing some headwinds but with market expectations this low it won't take much for the stock to double or triple. Exide is currently a $2.90 stock, but it's been an $11.70 stock in the last twelve months.

    Exide has $514 million in working capital and $426 million in equity. I see no meaningful risk that it will go out of business and that sets up a dynamic where the worst case scenario is sideways movement while the best case could be a strong move to the upside. I like those odds!

    I don't pay much attention to US weather conditions, but temperatures in Europe this quarter were brutally cold and just as a warm Q-3 hurt Exide's business in Europe a glacial Q-4 should help Exide's business in Europe.

    Over the last four and a half years I can identify three different runs where Exide gained more than 100% over the course of a few months. If your objective is to buy low and sell high now seems like an opportune time to position your portfolio.

    Tags: XIDEQ
    Mar 08 10:20 AM | Link | 9 Comments
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