John Polomny

Why Minimum Wage Increases Are Good, Just Not Now

I am suprised that Mr. Riddix doe not know that the minimum wage dispoportionaily hurts lower skilled workers and African Americans. The arbitary raising of wages by the state does not come with a consumate increase in productivity. Therefore if the employee is not productive at hi/her new wage then the business will terminate him or not hire him to begin with. Henry Hazlitt, who lived during the lst depression wrote an excellent book called "Economics in One Lesson" which dispels wive tales like minimum wage laws, the broken window fallcy, and that wars create wealth.

Whidbey: Please link to the academic studies you are referring.

The Deflation That Wasn't

That 30% is asset price deflation not monetary deflation. The main problem in the inflation/deflation debate is the failure to properly define terms.


On Apr 29 03:25 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> How does a 30% retraction in home pricing factor into this. I guess
> I sufferd an imaginary loss. How come vehicle prices are 20% lower?
> Which makes my trade in worth nothing.

Potash: Why I'm Bearish

You can only forgo nutrient application for so long before crop yeild suffers. It is situation with Potash that farmers can pay now or pay later. Many are gambling that the nutrient prices will fall before crop yields fall.

Swine Flu and the Mexican Narco State: No Time to Be Long

The Mexican government gets 40% of its revenue from Pemex. The production from its fields is declining rapidly. In fact Cantarell, which at one time was the worlds third largest oil field, declined by 30% 2009 vs. 2008. Within the next few years the country will be a net oil importer. How will the government replace the 40% of revenues they suck out of Pemex every year. I would suggest that if you removed 40% of any country's government revenue the country would become a failed state. It is all about oil exports in Mexico. I could care less about pig flu or narco gangs they are irrelevant.


On Apr 27 11:01 AM diogeron wrote:

> Mexico is hardly a "failed state." We should be more worried about
> Pakistan than Mexico. I spend a lot of time in Mexico and unless
> you are in one of the few towns where the violence is, you are safer
> by far than you are in most American cities. That doesn't mean I
> would invest in the peso to be sure, but the hyperbole about the
> "failed state" status of Mexico is getting tiresome. Calderon is
> taking on the narco gangs and the gangs are taking on each other.
> In the short run, it's messy but in the long run, it might be positive
> for both us and Mexico. We have a perfect symbiotic relationship
> with Mexico: We buy their drugs. They buy our guns.

GM Lays Out Its Post Bankruptcy Plan

"The prospect of a GM owned and operated by the federal government and its workers makes me shudder. I suspect that it might make a few competitors rather nervous as well. How about “green cars” that pass the politically correct test, produced and financed at a subsidized cost. Want to compete with that?"

Sure no problem. So Obama and Geithner are going to out compete Toyota and Honda? I'll take that bet as the politicians will run this company for the benefit of the their real constituents the UAW. They might be able to subsidize the cars and mandate green vehicles but they cant force peole to buy their modern day Ladas and Zhigulis.

Swine Flu and the Mexican Narco State: No Time to Be Long

You did not mention the problem Mexico has not only with lower oil prices but the fact that its major fields are in terminal decline and that Mexico will cease to be a oil exporter in a couple of years. Mexico is a failed state and all the people that pooh poohed the idea of border controls will see their folly when tens of millions of Mexicans try to migrate North.

Is a Copper Bubble Now Forming?

The question I have and that was not addressed in the article is how much supply destruction has taken place. The mining complex has been consolidated over the last few years into just a handful of players. They are mindful of previous price collapses and I have seen quite a few announcements of production curtailments. It is possible for the price to go up if the supply is falling faster then a falling demand.

How the Fed Will Ease Rates

So maybe they get a short term reduction in rates. Long term there are structural debt problems that cannot be solved with nonsense like this suggestion of terminating the sale of 30 year bonds. I guess if you want a trade this will work. Long term all roads lead to inflation in a social democracy.

Three Reasons to Be More Bullish on Natural Gas than on Oil

What about depletion and the collapsing rig count? The last time the rig count dropped this much the natural gas price advanced 80% over the following 12 months.


On Apr 22 09:47 AM scfranklin94 wrote:

> No need to get bullish on NG just yet; we'll probably hit the limits
> on storage by September, forcing massive shut-ins. Aubrey is dreaming
> if he thinks NG is going to be back to $9 by December. Most likely
> scenario is that gas declines to $2.50 by Sep/August and then that
> will be the time to buy. This coming winter will have record storage
> on hand, so even if it is as cold as this last one, prices probably
> won't rebound greatly until a year from now. If the winter of 2009-10
> is a warm one, be prepared for an end-of-winter storage number of
> 2 Tcf or more, which will keep a lid on prices until 18 months from
> now.
>
> So will NG prices go up in the long-term? Of course, but it might
> be a year to 18 months.

All Aboard the Railroad Revival

Yes passenger rail riders have increased and Amtrak still loses money. I am for more passenger rail as long as it can stand on its own economics. Currently that is not the case and will not be the case until oil prices rise substantialy and stay high in a resource constrained world.

The Fed's Exit Strategy

Spot on analysis Tim but the question for traders is what timeframes are we talking. There will obviousily be a time when reflation trades will be back in vogue does anyone know when and how long they will last before the FED begins withdrawing liquidity? Is the current nascent rally in some of the base metals the first whiffs of smoke for an inflationary fire to come?

Firming Commodity Prices Signal Economic Stabilization

There is a worldwide money pump going on of course commodities are going to rally. The thing that worries me is what happens when the FED has to eventually turn of the liquidity when inflation returns in the reported numbers and begins affecting people. I like the analogy I heard from a pundit. When a tiger (deflation) is chasing you do not worry about the python (inflation) you are running towards.

The False (Chinese Driven) Rally in Copper

LME stocks of copper are falling therefore the price is going up. There is a worldwide money pump going on and this kid thinks base metals are going down. Ok so go short base metal miners that have already fallen 90%. I am putting this guy on my contrarian watchlist.

Base Metal Momentum Unlikely to Last - Genuity Capital

LME copper invetories are falling and I think that many copper producers will be hesitant to restart furloughed production. In addition the worldwide money pump will be sufficient to propel base metal prices higher. The Chinese are slowly but surely out in the market exchanging their increasing worthless dollar hoard for hard assets.

A Few Thoughts on the Paying of Taxes

"If there's one thing about the tax system that I find particularly galling, however, it's the government's failure to raise revenues in ways that would also serve to improve social welfare -- by taxing "bads" instead of "goods."

As Milton Freidman said many times to many world improvers and do gooders like this author, "Where are we going to find all of these angels to reorder society for us, I dont even trust myself to do that".

This author is a statist that believes that it is possible to live for free off his neighbor. Taxation is theft. This is simple to understand in that people are threatened with violence if they do not pay. No difference between the government and a mugger on the street.