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John Polomny

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  • The Fed Is Not Monetizing U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    "I don't write these articles for my health. I write them because I am passionate about these issues and feel that there is a disturbing misunderstanding with regards to our monetary system."

    This may be true but you also write these articles on SA because it has over 600K readers and it is a cheap way to drive people to your website.
    Feb 9 12:08 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Fed Should Raise Rates to Get Banks Lending Again [View article]
    I have a question. Looking at the St. Louis Fed data it appears that both TOTALSL(Consumer Lending) and BUSLOANS (Commercial and Industrial Loans at all Commercial banks) have finally bottomed and are now turning up. Granted it is early but is this an indication of the beginning of a new credit cycle? What would be the appropriate data points to be looking at that would indicate bank lending recovering? I would also note that both the KBE (bank ETF) and XLF (Financials ETF) have had their 50dma cross over their 200dma's. I t appears these lagging sectors are indicating a return of strength in the financials. Any thoughts from the board?
    Jan 25 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Gold and Silver Stock Picks for 2011 and Beyond [View article]
    The only fool is you. The correlation the author referenced is between negative Real Interest Rates and gold not real estate, which has proven out for decades. Furthermore gold supply has been declining not rising as you indicate. This is true even though the price has risen every year for the last ten years. You are only the 100,000 commenter on SA that has poo poohed gold the last few years. Eventually the price will decline but not until all of the various monetary situations are straightened out around the world.
    Jan 23 08:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Lights, Global Floods, Australian Coal [View article]
    Take a look at Prophecy Resource Group. They just commissioned a new mine in Mongolia and signed an offtake agreement yesterday for shipment of coal to eastern Russian export ports.
    Jan 5 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • State Tax Revenues See Largest Increase in More Than 10 Years [View article]
    Well some of the trillions that have been rammed into the economy by the Federal government and various QE adventures by the Federal Reserve were bound to trickle into tax revenue for the states. The only problem I see with this little fantasy is that oil and foodstuff inflation is going to be an issue in 2011. In fact I would wager that oil prices over a $100 a barrel, which we will see by the end of Q1 2011, will have us talking about a new recession by Q4 2011. With interest rates already at zero and no appetite in Congress for massive new spending I would suggest that this recent increase in state tax revenue will be like a fart in the wind by early 2012.
    Jan 3 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Several Impressive Signs of Economic Strength [View article]
    Unfortunately oil will rise over $100 per barrel early next year and that will put the kibosh on the so called economic recovery. With input costs rising companies will either have to raise prices or allow margins to compress as they absorb the input cost increases.
    Dec 30 02:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Bullish on Natural Gas [View article]
    The process is liquifaction not liquidation. Nat gas long term yes. 2011 probably not. However Encana is looking cheap.
    Dec 27 02:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary to Popular Belief, Federal Revenue Growth Is Impressive [View article]
    It would be nice to see some research on whether this government has ever been able to restrain spending. I suspect not. How much growth would we need to be able to pay for the unfunded SS and Medicare liabilities?
    Dec 27 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CNBC’s 'Gold Bubble in 2011' Prediction Is Nonsense [View article]
    I am not a gold bug which is evident from my prior postings on this thread. I told you in an earlier post that I want to invest in profit making companies, and I do outside the US, but I also know that the fake psuedo economic recovery you are touting will fail becuae it is not based on anything except faith, hope, change and alot of debt. By the way I define a depression as when the standard of living of a country is declining. I would suggest that for tens of millions of people being out of work and on food stamps with no prospects would constitute a depression or lower standard of living. You are confusing pump priming stimulus, FED induced zero interest rates, and FED debt monetization which has barely made government economic indicators turn green as a recovery.

    "US GDP is growing. We are *NOT* in a recession any more."

    These are government prodcued numbers that are incumbebt on maore debt and monetization by the FED. It simply is not sustainable.

    I now know why your bio says you are a former hedge fund manager.
    Dec 21 03:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CNBC’s 'Gold Bubble in 2011' Prediction Is Nonsense [View article]
    The same argument can be made for any asset class. What is your point? Hard assets are now having their time in the sun. paper assets are not. This is nothing new.
    Dec 21 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CNBC’s 'Gold Bubble in 2011' Prediction Is Nonsense [View article]
    Jeffry we are still in a depression. Nothing has been repaired in the economy. The facts are that the Federal government in conjunction with the Federal Reserve has propped up the economy and interfered with the market clearing forces of debt destruction. Historically these type of actions lead to weaker currencies, inflation, and lower standards of living. Gold has and probably will correct. So what, this is a good thing as nothing goes straight up.

    I want to invest my capital in profit making ventures instead of preserving capital in gold. However with unending Federal government deficits over one trillion per year (with zero impetus bv either party to cut spending), $900 billion in unpaid for tax cuts, unfunded SS and Medicare liabilities over $100 trillion dollars, state and local governments hundreds of billions in debt (not including their unfunded pension liabilities), two unpaid for and continuing wars, a Federal Reserve that is monetizing treasury debt, and poor demographic trends in the US I would say that yes having some gold in ones portfolio is prudent even at $1400 per ounce.

    Notwithstanding your histrionics about Pets.com (which I shorted for a nice profit), and the references to the real estate bubble (which I did not participate in) all I can say about your assertion that, "Owning gold might make sense, the but the price at which you buy it makes a world of difference. There is just way too much potential downside at $1400/oz." is that stocks were in a twenty year bull market commencing in 1982 and bonds are arguably ending a thirty year bullmarket. At times those secular bull markets had cyclical bear markets. They stayed in secular bull markets because the fundamentals were conducive to them continuing. The same is true with gold in my view. Again my view is that gold along with other hard assets is in a secular bull market due to fundementals. There have been corrections and there will continue to be corrections. I see that from other comments you have made that you are negative on gold for 2011. You may be correct however you have made no argument here that will convince me to sell my gold.
    Dec 21 11:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why CNBC’s 'Gold Bubble in 2011' Prediction Is Nonsense [View article]
    "Most of the economic indicators have been flashing positive, and things are getting better."

    Yes the government produced economic indicators are showing some positive gains. That tends to happen when you throw trillions of dollars of borrowed money at an economy. I would not say that things are getting better for most people. We now have one in seven people on food stamps. There is no new innovation or technology that is going to lead to job growth sufficient to significantly lower the unemployment rate. In addition even with the slight increase in economic activity oil prices are nearing $90 per barrel and once they get over $100 (most likely by the second quarter of 2011) that is the end of your so called economic recovery. With rates already at zero and deficits over a trillion per year what are the braniacs going to do when the economy threatens to dip back into recession. Yes the gold price may decline but to say the secular gold bull is over is incorrect.
    Dec 21 10:14 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Budget Update: Continued Improvement [View article]
    According to John Williams of Shadowstats if the government accounted for the unfunded liabilities of SS and Medicare on a net present value method the real deficit would be near $4 trillion. The US economy will never grow fast enough to pay for these liabilities. This will eventually lead to outright default or more likely devaluation of the currency.
    Dec 10 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Reasons Why Gold Will Hit $1,900 in 2011 [View article]
    "An indirect way to play this sector is via the classic "pick-and-shovel" approach, in which my network of industry sources has provided me with some impressive internal numbers"

    Take a look at Energold and their man portable drills. The company is run by Fred Davidson who is a very frugal manager that runs a tight ship. They also own a big chunk of Impact Silver.
    Dec 3 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Won't Policymakers Discuss Foreign Oil Imports? [View article]
    "Why Won't Policymakers Discuss Foreign Oil Imports?"

    The reason politicians do not discuss serious problems like oil imports, deficits, ongoing wars, etc...is that they do not want to disturb the child like fantasies of the american people. Due to two and four year election cycles there is no profit for the politician in bringing up problems that would require real pain to solve. That is not how one gets re-elected. Secondly why would you expect any of these people in government to have a solution? Have you ever had the misfortune of talking with some of these rumheads? Most of them have never done anything and never been anywhere and you look to them to solve serious problems. Good luck with that one. The US will continue to import oil and the percentage imported in relation to total use will increase until we can't do it anymore. Just like we will continue to borrow and spend until we cannot do it anymore. Once these behaviors are forced to change by the markets than there will serious readjustments that will negatively impact people who refused to deal with reality.
    Dec 1 09:39 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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458 Comments
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