John Polomny

Behind the Numbers: Problems Loom for OPEC

You miss the purpose of quite a few of these articles. They exsist to drive traffic to the authors site were a pitch is made for some type of newsletter or forecasting service. So looked at in this light this article makes perfect sense.


On Jan 25 03:00 PM NutritionFacts wrote:

> What a useless addition to SA this is.
> Next time you write something perhaps ask yourself the following
> before you submit it to SA:
>
> 1. Does the piece tell us something that we don't already know and
> have not known for months
> 2. Will the information or insigths contained in the piece allow
> us to make money in some way.
>
> I submit that had you asked those questions of the above piece, the
> answers would be no, and no.
>
>

Crude Reality: How Long Can Oil Stay Down?

As usual no discussion about depletion. The IEA report cited that without substantial investment in new fields that world oil supply could decline 8% per year. In the short term you may be right. However depletion continues unabated and with investment being curtailed by lower prices it is just a matter ot time until demand exceeds supply and the price rises. No V you are correct but probably a U.

Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and Boone Pickens - Bullish on Oil

Long term 3-5 years oil is going to increase in price. The collapse in oil prices is causing cancellation of drilling and oilfield development plans. However based on the recent IEA report the depletion rate in exsistng fields may be as high as 8% per year. The depletion rate and the eventual rebound in the world economy is going to lead to another oil price shock. As always timing of the event will seperate proftiable trades from unprofitable ones.

Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years

The comments here are correct in that an increase in Iraqi production will be more then overwhelemed by depletion elsewhere. However I think there are some excellent speculations available with respect to some of the oil juniors operating in Kurdisan especially. Niko Resources is of particular interest.

The Oil Price Conundrum

I like the oil ETF USO here as I can can write covered calls on the shares. With the price of oil way down it is probably going to base around this level. As the world economy comes back the oil price will move higher and this covered call writing strategy becomes an ATM machine.