John Polomny

Swine Flu and the Mexican Narco State: No Time to Be Long

The Mexican government gets 40% of its revenue from Pemex. The production from its fields is declining rapidly. In fact Cantarell, which at one time was the worlds third largest oil field, declined by 30% 2009 vs. 2008. Within the next few years the country will be a net oil importer. How will the government replace the 40% of revenues they suck out of Pemex every year. I would suggest that if you removed 40% of any country's government revenue the country would become a failed state. It is all about oil exports in Mexico. I could care less about pig flu or narco gangs they are irrelevant.


On Apr 27 11:01 AM diogeron wrote:

> Mexico is hardly a "failed state." We should be more worried about
> Pakistan than Mexico. I spend a lot of time in Mexico and unless
> you are in one of the few towns where the violence is, you are safer
> by far than you are in most American cities. That doesn't mean I
> would invest in the peso to be sure, but the hyperbole about the
> "failed state" status of Mexico is getting tiresome. Calderon is
> taking on the narco gangs and the gangs are taking on each other.
> In the short run, it's messy but in the long run, it might be positive
> for both us and Mexico. We have a perfect symbiotic relationship
> with Mexico: We buy their drugs. They buy our guns.

Swine Flu and the Mexican Narco State: No Time to Be Long

You did not mention the problem Mexico has not only with lower oil prices but the fact that its major fields are in terminal decline and that Mexico will cease to be a oil exporter in a couple of years. Mexico is a failed state and all the people that pooh poohed the idea of border controls will see their folly when tens of millions of Mexicans try to migrate North.