John Polomny

Three Reasons to Be More Bullish on Natural Gas than on Oil

What about depletion and the collapsing rig count? The last time the rig count dropped this much the natural gas price advanced 80% over the following 12 months.


On Apr 22 09:47 AM scfranklin94 wrote:

> No need to get bullish on NG just yet; we'll probably hit the limits
> on storage by September, forcing massive shut-ins. Aubrey is dreaming
> if he thinks NG is going to be back to $9 by December. Most likely
> scenario is that gas declines to $2.50 by Sep/August and then that
> will be the time to buy. This coming winter will have record storage
> on hand, so even if it is as cold as this last one, prices probably
> won't rebound greatly until a year from now. If the winter of 2009-10
> is a warm one, be prepared for an end-of-winter storage number of
> 2 Tcf or more, which will keep a lid on prices until 18 months from
> now.
>
> So will NG prices go up in the long-term? Of course, but it might
> be a year to 18 months.