John Polomny's Instablog

Selling Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Thu, 09 May 2013 11:01:10 -0400

I am selling out my position in the Vietnam Opportunity Fund. I am looking at a round a 40% gain so I am going to take it. The reason is the nervousness I have with the economy in Vietnam coupled with the fact there are issues with getting out of this in an orderly fashion. It can be done with limit orders in a reasonable amount of time but with markets trading at all time highs I think it will be difficult to sell this security if we have a market break. I really do not like what is happening with the economy in Vietnam relative to other opportunities in Mongolia, Myanmar, Cambodia, etc.. I am taking my 40% gain and moving on for now.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Cortex Reports Network Stats For April 2013

Thu, 09 May 2013 10:54:43 -0400

Link to press release:

Cortex Business Solutions Inc. reports the following network statistic updates for the month of April 2013. This report is issued by the second Thursday of each month.
Summary
Since our last report, 4 new buying organizations have been signed:
Callon Petroleum Company
I-Dent
Rock Energy
West Valley Energy Corp.
Year over year, transactions on the network increased 38% from 695,886 in April 2012 to 958,997 in April 2013.
Total Customer Contracts increased 25% from 7,339 in April 2012 to 9,147 in April 2013.
114 new suppliers were added to the Cortex Network in April 2013.
51 Hubs are now live on the Trading Partner Network, an increase of 200% year-over-year.

I was a little nervous last month as transactions appeared to be slowing. However this month they are showing 38% year over year growth. This will be a little lumpy going forward I think but as the network continues to grow virally I still anticipate further growth each month. At some point the effects of compounding takes over. Hopefully this will be reflected in a higher stock price.

Disclosure: I am long [[CTXZF.PK]].

Buying Turquoise Hill On Speculation Of Oyu Tolgoi Settlement With GOM

Wed, 24 Apr 2013 08:41:53 -0400

Pretty decent report out from BDSEC about imminent settlement between Rio Tinto and the Government of Mongolia regarding the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. It appears that the President of Mongolia has directed his cabinet to "speed up actions on ... permits". The Minister of Mines was quoted as saying "Oyu Tolgoi will start exporting in June". These recent developments have not been reported in the western press and the dearth of reporting gives a window of opportunity for speculators to buy shares of TRQ at below the cost of invested capital in the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Once this news gets out it is quite reasonable to expect a positive reaction for the price of TRQ shares. Here is the link to the report. I am buying shares at this level as a speculation on resolution notwithstanding the fact that the copper price is weak as I expect a snap back after this issue is resolved.

Disclosure: I am long [[TRQ]].

Mongolia Growth Group March Shareholder Letter

Fri, 19 Apr 2013 12:09:23 -0400

The weather is thawing in UB along with a heating up of realestate prices and activity:

With the warmer temperatures, leasing activity is beginning to pick up. Once again, we are seeing increases in rents as the 2013 season begins. Just as interestingly, we see very robust demand for high quality locations.
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In summary, I feel that we are at the start of the period where Mongolian interest rates begin to decline to rates similar with more developed countries. This all seems to support a new growth phase in property prices following the dip in prices in the last half of 2012. More importantly, evidence on the ground seems to support this thesis as we've seen some increases in prices as the weather has grown warmer.

You can read the entire letter here.

In addition BDSEC, the largest broker in Mongolia, put out research on MGG with a $6.00 price target. Here is the link to that report. The stock dropped as low as $3.00 yesterday and I was in buying shares. It has since rebounded some today.

Disclosure: I am long [[MNGGF.PK]].

Caledonia Mining Reports First Quarter Production

Thu, 11 Apr 2013 14:13:13 -0400

First quarter production at Blanket Mine:

Caledonia Mining Corporation ("Caledonia") (CAL.TO)(CALVF)(CMCL.L) is pleased to announce gold production from the Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe ("Blanket") during the first quarter ending March 31, 2013 (the "Quarter").
10,463oz of gold were produced during the Quarter, a 14% increase on gold production in Q1 2012 (9,155oz).
Gold production for the Quarter is subject to minor revisions following the receipt of final assays for the last two deliveries to Rand Refineries.
Commenting on the Q1 2013 production, Caledonia's President and Chief Executive Officer, Stefan Hayden said: "Gold production reported in Q1 reflects production up to cut-off for the Quarter, which was on 26th March due to the early incidence of Easter and therefore reflects only 84 working days. The daily rate of production achieved in the Quarter was slightly ahead of target."

Disclosure: I am long [[CALVF.OB]].

Cortex Business Solutions Reports March 2013 Network Stats

Thu, 11 Apr 2013 12:29:34 -0400

Cortex reports March 2013 network stats:

Since our last report there were no new buying organizations that signed.
Year over year, transactions on the network increased 18% from 821,893 in March 2012 to 973,196 in March 2013.
Total Customer Contracts increased 26% from 7,179 in March 2012 to 9,033 in March 2013.
127 new suppliers were added to the Cortex Network in March 2013.
48 Hubs are now live on the Trading Partner Network, an increase of 182% year over year.

Transactions have been slowing down the last few months but this is due to a slowdown in activity in the oil and gas markets they serve, however they are still showing double digit growth year over year. As the company diversifys into other industries this should pickup going forward.

Disclosure: I am long [[CTXZF.PK]].