John R. Conway

Long/short equity, research analyst, gaming, restaurants
John R. Conway
Long/short equity, research analyst, gaming, restaurants
Contributor since: 2011
All day breakfast should of been done a long time ago. Profit margins are still good for breakfast, but higher egg prices will be around for a while. Not sure if this is going to move the needle on MCD stock
I like the freestyle machines to, been a long time since there has been an update to the soda machine. Wish coke would go into spirits ( wine, wine coolers, etc)
I agree with the stock at $42 and some change this is a good time to start/add to a position, since the last time we got to these levels was in July and Oct of 2014. With $MSFT up over the last two years I believe it's healthy/welcoming to see a drop like this otherwise the expectations start becoming unrealistic. If we can see $MSFT below $40 this will become even more attractive.
cool idea, thanks
I agree and I have been there several times (mostly across Missouri and Illinois). One of the things I like about the concept is the BBQ influence they have on their menu. BBQ is a tough concept to roll out in a chain restaurant ( since BBQ varies across regions). but TXRH does a good job with a price point that won't break the bank.
The electronic toll road that keeps on paying--Long $MA
Seems to be selling well in Minnesota. The interesting thing is that most consumers don't know it's a coke product.
Great feature and can't wait to read more
2014 already looking good for CF longs!
If you use Sharebuilder this can help cut down on transaction costs. Overall, this isn't the strategy for somebody that is nearing retirement, but even if you can get close to 20% gains every year that's still pretty good.
I agree, I don't even think I would call this an article.
Overall, I would rather wait for conditions to get better in sit-down casual dining before getting into Darden. In the short term (next 2-3 months) I don't see much upside as over the last couple of conference calls the company has had issues getting more customers to visit Darden, while providing balance in their specials. I used to own Darden, for a long time and it was a solid investment (1999-2006) through company stock plan. However, the issues they have had this year will take some time to sift out, providing a buying opportunity along the way. IMO, Over the last 5 years Darden has been stuck in a range and I would rather buy at the low end of the range, and sell at the high end.
Richjoy makes a good point "Is it a good opportunity to start a position in DRI?...I suppose it depends upon your strategy"
Have your thoughts changed now?
right now no parties are interested and the stock is getting close to tangible book value as predicted in this article. Yes I have taken 2 years of economics.
Thanks for the mention, Left Banker. In my opinion I don't think there will be a div increase and still sticking to my opinion of mid/low 40's before getting in. The stock had a decent run-up before earnings, but there hasn't been much that has changed with DRI since their last quarter. The same problems that DRI has been reporting about, are the same problems that have plagued them the last two quarters. DRI still a good buy and hold stock, but if you are looking for share appreciation/share growth, not going to happen here for a while.
With the stock 16% decline today and with the stock touching the upper $34 support level (not seen since April & June) wondering your thoughts. Do you think this is an overreaction or more downside to come?
Simple sounds like the best way to go. Easy to understand and doesn't look like a casino with lots of ads/bright lights or catchy headlines.
Thanks Adam, Overall in the casual dining segment Darden is prob the best pick, just not right now. With the company struggling the past 2 quarters this upcoming quarter should be interesting and provide an opportunity to pick up shares in the low 40's range.
You are a right they do have a value, but it's the interpretation of this value that can be difficult to value when the company is taking goodwill write-downs where this extra or premium value is less than what was thought. True these goodwill impairments don't affect cash, but are basically admitting mistakes. So, I understand what your saying in that somewhere inside of BBRY there is extra value hidden, but the verdict is not clear on that yet.
What I meant was the rollout of the product was a flop
I agree
I agree, In my opinion (at the current time) book value can be a tough number to go by, unless the quality of the assets have gone down faster than their true value. But, I am not seeing that at this moment.
I only have said that I wouldn't buy now based only on speculation with a track record of trying to make changes that haven't worked out.
Thanks for the comment, I mainly agree with you, but the only part that I disagree with you is that if some kind of deal gets done that stock price will jump. Why is someone going to pay a premium right now, when they can just sit and wait to get in on a better deal? In my opinion strategic alternatives should be a good thing, but for blackberry it isn't
You are correct in your first sentence, but there is plenty of people that are speculating/wanting to speculating in the stock on the hope that BlackBerry will be bought out, merge or go private. If this doesn't happen or you don't hear any follow-thru news, this will be another flop and the stock price will go lower. I would rather wait to the dust settles/wait for the stock to cool off/ as one has plenty of time.
Thanks for bringing $SHLD back into the limelight again. I believe Sears hasn't been left for dead, just can be a complicated stock to understand due to the many business's and operations the company has.
I'm not to keen when retail companies blame the weather:
"Sears reported a net loss of $279 million and an operating loss of $247 million. Part of this negative performance is due to the bad weather (a cold and rainy spring) during this period. Going forward, Sears should see improved results from better weather"
and then can somehow predict that the weather will get magically better. In my opinion when retailers blame the weather they are usually hiding/masking things they don't want to go into detail or report. I believe one of these issues is the structure of the upper management team across brands. Sears is structured like a military regiment with each company like a battalion with many layers of management. If managed properly they can be a powerful force, but I believe this is only area that needs more attention/improvement in order to drive sales.
For example, one area/business can do great, and another can struggle, but that's o.k. since this can offset each other. The area that is doing good is paid on performance, but the area that is struggling is getting their funds cut/making less money; which adds to lower morale. Instead of working together as a whole, in my opinion their is too much competition among the brands instead of a heavier focus on integration (just an example).
On the plus side Sears is way ahead most of their competition when it comes to the e-commerce side of business. The company has put a lot of money during the last five years into e-commerce, where others ( 3-5 years ago) waited. Overall good write, since Sears can be a difficult company to dissect.
I enjoyed the article and it seems like every year we have a newer stock that has a remarkable run-up and that is an industry game changer. Then the million dollar question seems to arise and that's when should we short it because it ran too high. In my opinion Tesla (TSLA) has some of the same behavior/sentiment issues that Netflix/Amazon/Apple and others have had before a pullback has lead to a buying opportunity (if your bullish).
In this article I wish there was some more analysis into possible margins concerns/ possible rising labor rates/expansion costs/etc that could cause a short term impairment to the stock slowing down. Right now you are paying for future prospects for the growth of Tesla which look promising, but I would rather wait for the stock to cool down rather than try and call a top.
Thanks for your comment
I like this HGTV deal, which can definitely bring some much needed exposure. As long as the housing story can stay intact, Basset is poised to take advantage of the upper middle class consumer and for houses/properties that desire quality furniture. Any ideas/timeframe on when management expects 5% margins? Good call on the floor of the stock, I will keep my eye on this one
The company still has an impressive backlog for future orders and continue to drive higher sales with limited competition. The company's business is typically seasonal and I would expect sales to continue to increase going into 4Q, which is typically a great quarter for the company. The stock has also performed well during the heated battles of gun legislation, being a great buy on pullbacks.
We have seen a nice pullback, since the article was written; below my expectations. I will be watching closely and looking to be a buyer of calls. Will keep updated.