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John R. Conway

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  • Tobacco Industry: Philip Morris A Better Alternative Than Altria [View article]
    I would also agree with Arthur and Sammy. The technical formation you see in (MO) before the selloff was a upward bullish channel formation. The stock was above this indicating an overcrowded trade. The 26/27 level is a good price to get in on the current correction. There is a lot of stocks above their 52 week highs and all it takes is one negative article or a market sell-off and the same thing will happen to them as (MO). One example of an overcrowded trade is (MCD) which has a similar chart pattern to (MO)
    Jan 3 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Call And Put Options To Pay For Stock And ETF Positions [View article]
    Ken,

    Thanks for the "old school" classic option plays that you can use on your position. In my opinion this is why options work since you can always have a hedge and at the same time keep picking up shares on a dip. In a way, this is similar to using the average down method. The only concern a investor will have is that by selling a call on your position you are capping your upside gains. But if you are a long term investor your right; you have to use a hedge and options if timed correctly can be a great hedge for insurance.
    Dec 30 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons In Averaging Down And Rolling Your Options [View article]
    When it comes to averaging down this can always be argued with valid points to weather you want to add to your position or not. This just depends on your risk tolerance. In my opinion this strategy works well for high market cap/ 4% dividend plus stocks that don't have large swings (more boring companies like T, IBM, GE, PFE for example) since you get a nice dividend for protection.
    Dec 29 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons In Averaging Down And Rolling Your Options [View article]
    I believe what Kevin is pointing out is market sentiment If you believe the product or service that a company is trying to sell has negative sentiment, this can help you in doing research and making your prospective trade. Market sentiment is also useful in understanding your stock compared to others in its sector and how they are perceived ( one example being from a consumers point of view) as mentioned with the reference to Rimm in the article
    Dec 29 11:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons In Averaging Down And Rolling Your Options [View article]
    If you have a long term horizon on a stock averaging down is just part of the game especially on blue chip/ high dividend payers. I would say buy and hold is more of a fool's game
    Dec 29 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tobacco Industry: Philip Morris A Better Alternative Than Altria [View article]
    While consumption has gone down in the US, prices on the other hand have gone up. This has helped offset the decrease in consumption. In 2012, if we experience some of the same headwinds as we did this year MO and PM will continue be attractive for their dividends. MO is solely a play on US growth, since over 70% of revenue comes from inside the US. While prices in New York are over $9 per pack, prices in the greater Midwest and the south are relatively under $5 pack. Check out this website that shows you price per pack per state as well as how much each state collects in revenue, http://bit.ly/snQSW0

    I will agree with you on that PM has international exposure and internationally smoking is perceived in a different light then in the US. If you want growth PM is going to win out, but if you want high dividend and betting US equities will go higher, MO is for you. Right now the avg price per pack across the US is $5.13 and in my opinion until this becomes unaffordable for the majority of people in the US, look to see Altria help cash-strapped states with taxes from the sale of its cigarettes.
    Dec 29 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: What Happens When A Stock Takes A Tumble [View article]
    He is the chairman and controlling shareholder. One could derive that he has some say/responsibility/ideas on how to turn things around.
    Dec 27 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: What Happens When A Stock Takes A Tumble [View article]
    I would agree with your observation, "I think it was another put seller who was in pain." Generally when a stock drops this much and the reasons are known this can be a good time to sell a put. However, this stock could have a couple of more days of downside. Generally if I was to sell a put I would want to do this on something that I want to own. Unless Lampert has some hidden ammo to drive the stock higher I don't like the retail brick and mortar space. If Target and Walmart start selling appliances and other items Sears has had an advantage in; look out Shld could see more downside. Like Rimm, I believe this would be a good trade, but not an investment.
    Dec 27 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Into 2012: Part 1 [View article]
    Looking at the 1 year chart of HON I would wait for around 60. This is around the one year high. I don't follow HON on a daily basis, but on the macro view of the market, trying to time a short term steep down turn is difficult and from now until going into the new year I'm fairly bullish and I'm actually enjoying negative headlines coming out of Europe, this turns up to be a good buying opportunity to buy on dips for your large cap stocks; as long as the news isn't disastrous. If you have a large holding of HON have you looked at doing a collar?
    Dec 27 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Into 2012: Part 1 [View article]
    Your covered call piece on your largest holdings is spot on. With a lot of stocks at/or near 52 week highs selling calls is a great way to bring in extra income and have protection. I believe investors have mostly learned their lesson from this year and will be seeking protection for positions going into 2012.
    Dec 26 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Among the stocks making new 52 week highs as year end approaches are faithful big-caps across a number of industries - Wal-Mart (WMT), Pfizer (PFE), Verizon (VZ), and McDonald's (MCD). All yield more than the 10-year Treasury and likely have more adaptive managements than that in D.C. What's not to like?  [View news story]
    I agree-- the media does tend to over hype some 52 week highs. I haven't traded MCD lately, but I see your point on a technical basis that one has to be careful as valuations start catching up with the stock
    Dec 21 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Among the stocks making new 52 week highs as year end approaches are faithful big-caps across a number of industries - Wal-Mart (WMT), Pfizer (PFE), Verizon (VZ), and McDonald's (MCD). All yield more than the 10-year Treasury and likely have more adaptive managements than that in D.C. What's not to like?  [View news story]
    Well if your trying to trade like Warren Buffet, then yes over a 5 year period, in WMT-PFE-and VZ these companies may not work well for you. But, if you kept collecting the dividend and added shares on pullbacks I would rather be in these stocks then treasuries or possibly a Money market account. So what tech stocks from 1999 does MCD remind you of? There's not to many tech companies from the late 90' s that I remember that have the market cap/dividend that MCD has.
    Dec 21 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are The Major Banks Near A Generational Bottom? [View article]
    Bret,

    If the markets are going to move higher and if were in a short term market rally the financials have to participate to see the big rally's we've been seeing. While I like your trade on BAC buy the Jan 2013 puts and sell Jan 2013 for a zero net cost (price subject to change) because this is the great thing about options low cost Max reward for as close to zero to net cost as possible. However, short term I would rather play the financial winners rather than the losers. Short term if BAC rally's lets say 10% this still isn't a huge move compared to Citigroup going up 10%. I think when looking at the financial sector its simply safer to play winners like Wells Fargo and US Bank, just to name two. With BAC if you are on the bullish side the question to be asked is BAC at the bottom? Right now IM not 100% Do you think BAC is going to same way Citigroup before the split. I remember when Citigroup got near that 5 dollar level and there were lots of Bulls saying it won't go under 5, but it did, did a 10 for 1 reverse split and is still down for the year on a split adjusted basis. Is it possible for BAC to follow the same fate as Citigroup? Bret I like your other trades and like BAC long term, im just concerned about short term I don't see much upside for the stock.
    Dec 1 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying LEAP Call Options On Ford, Alcoa, Citigroup [View article]
    Good article. The time you allow yourself can give you time to withstand any market downturns and to be able to buy more on a pullback. What do you think about GE as an alternative to AA? This seems like another stock that has taken a beating, but has a better dividend and is more diversified than AA. I have been thinking about buying LEAP's.
    Nov 28 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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