Seeking Alpha

John R. Conway

View as an RSS Feed
View John R. Conway's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Call Option Trade On AT&T [View article]
    True I will not be getting the dividend, but my basis on this trade is that stocks that are blue chippers and pay out the dividends (like AT&T) won't likely see a big sell off until dividend pays out. Also, AT&T is a slower moving stock so you can continue to add to your position (average down method) in case you lose money on calls. If AT&T drifts down to 26 or 27 I could get called away, but I'll look forward to the next dividend.
    Jan 9, 2012. 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Investments For 2012: Stocks That Will Make More Than 10% [View article]
    While I don't follow housing stocks, I think that housing stocks often get mixed up in macroeconomics rather than investors focusing on profits, sales and number of contracts closed. If your a returning military member this is a great time to buy a house. I believe that housing could be a positive 2012 surprise. Lets face it, most of horrific news is already known about the housing sector. If housing was terrible (as it was in 08 and 09) I don't think we would see signs of improved economic growth and most likely housing would be a drag on the Dow as it was in previous years. As a homeowner myself, I don't like seeing all the foreclosures, but banks can't hold foreclosures forever. Housing may be seen as speculative, but in a large portfolio you have to need at least one speculative pick.
    Jan 6, 2012. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AT&T's Boring Dividend Is Better Than The Market [View article]
    Ryan, why not use options. Im in the same boat as you, since I only use around 2000 dollars (the min for a margin account and to trade options with td ameritrade) But, you can buy options on stocks like AT&T for a fraction of the cost. I currently like using (ITM) on blue chips as long as the market trends higher since (T) has some index weighting in the Dow 30. True you don't get the dividend or big price movement in AT&T, but you get a safe stock than can allow you to make money.
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AT&T's Boring Dividend Is Better Than The Market [View article]
    True (VZ) has been outperforming for a while, but VZ is at its 52 week high. AT&T still has a little more room left for its 52 week high. I believe the trend will continue for blue chippers that pay 4% and above dividends on the bullish side. There are a lot of stocks that are blue chippers and pay 4% or higher dividends that are trending higher
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tobacco Industry: Philip Morris A Better Alternative Than Altria [View article]
    I would also agree with Arthur and Sammy. The technical formation you see in (MO) before the selloff was a upward bullish channel formation. The stock was above this indicating an overcrowded trade. The 26/27 level is a good price to get in on the current correction. There is a lot of stocks above their 52 week highs and all it takes is one negative article or a market sell-off and the same thing will happen to them as (MO). One example of an overcrowded trade is (MCD) which has a similar chart pattern to (MO)
    Jan 3, 2012. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Call And Put Options To Pay For Stock And ETF Positions [View article]

    Thanks for the "old school" classic option plays that you can use on your position. In my opinion this is why options work since you can always have a hedge and at the same time keep picking up shares on a dip. In a way, this is similar to using the average down method. The only concern a investor will have is that by selling a call on your position you are capping your upside gains. But if you are a long term investor your right; you have to use a hedge and options if timed correctly can be a great hedge for insurance.
    Dec 30, 2011. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons In Averaging Down And Rolling Your Options [View article]
    When it comes to averaging down this can always be argued with valid points to weather you want to add to your position or not. This just depends on your risk tolerance. In my opinion this strategy works well for high market cap/ 4% dividend plus stocks that don't have large swings (more boring companies like T, IBM, GE, PFE for example) since you get a nice dividend for protection.
    Dec 29, 2011. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons In Averaging Down And Rolling Your Options [View article]
    I believe what Kevin is pointing out is market sentiment If you believe the product or service that a company is trying to sell has negative sentiment, this can help you in doing research and making your prospective trade. Market sentiment is also useful in understanding your stock compared to others in its sector and how they are perceived ( one example being from a consumers point of view) as mentioned with the reference to Rimm in the article
    Dec 29, 2011. 11:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons In Averaging Down And Rolling Your Options [View article]
    If you have a long term horizon on a stock averaging down is just part of the game especially on blue chip/ high dividend payers. I would say buy and hold is more of a fool's game
    Dec 29, 2011. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tobacco Industry: Philip Morris A Better Alternative Than Altria [View article]
    While consumption has gone down in the US, prices on the other hand have gone up. This has helped offset the decrease in consumption. In 2012, if we experience some of the same headwinds as we did this year MO and PM will continue be attractive for their dividends. MO is solely a play on US growth, since over 70% of revenue comes from inside the US. While prices in New York are over $9 per pack, prices in the greater Midwest and the south are relatively under $5 pack. Check out this website that shows you price per pack per state as well as how much each state collects in revenue,

    I will agree with you on that PM has international exposure and internationally smoking is perceived in a different light then in the US. If you want growth PM is going to win out, but if you want high dividend and betting US equities will go higher, MO is for you. Right now the avg price per pack across the US is $5.13 and in my opinion until this becomes unaffordable for the majority of people in the US, look to see Altria help cash-strapped states with taxes from the sale of its cigarettes.
    Dec 29, 2011. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: What Happens When A Stock Takes A Tumble [View article]
    He is the chairman and controlling shareholder. One could derive that he has some say/responsibility/ideas on how to turn things around.
    Dec 27, 2011. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears: What Happens When A Stock Takes A Tumble [View article]
    I would agree with your observation, "I think it was another put seller who was in pain." Generally when a stock drops this much and the reasons are known this can be a good time to sell a put. However, this stock could have a couple of more days of downside. Generally if I was to sell a put I would want to do this on something that I want to own. Unless Lampert has some hidden ammo to drive the stock higher I don't like the retail brick and mortar space. If Target and Walmart start selling appliances and other items Sears has had an advantage in; look out Shld could see more downside. Like Rimm, I believe this would be a good trade, but not an investment.
    Dec 27, 2011. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Into 2012: Part 1 [View article]
    Looking at the 1 year chart of HON I would wait for around 60. This is around the one year high. I don't follow HON on a daily basis, but on the macro view of the market, trying to time a short term steep down turn is difficult and from now until going into the new year I'm fairly bullish and I'm actually enjoying negative headlines coming out of Europe, this turns up to be a good buying opportunity to buy on dips for your large cap stocks; as long as the news isn't disastrous. If you have a large holding of HON have you looked at doing a collar?
    Dec 27, 2011. 02:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Into 2012: Part 1 [View article]
    Your covered call piece on your largest holdings is spot on. With a lot of stocks at/or near 52 week highs selling calls is a great way to bring in extra income and have protection. I believe investors have mostly learned their lesson from this year and will be seeking protection for positions going into 2012.
    Dec 26, 2011. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Among the stocks making new 52 week highs as year end approaches are faithful big-caps across a number of industries - Wal-Mart (WMT), Pfizer (PFE), Verizon (VZ), and McDonald's (MCD). All yield more than the 10-year Treasury and likely have more adaptive managements than that in D.C. What's not to like?  [View news story]
    I agree-- the media does tend to over hype some 52 week highs. I haven't traded MCD lately, but I see your point on a technical basis that one has to be careful as valuations start catching up with the stock
    Dec 21, 2011. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment