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John Reese

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  • 5 Stocks - Including Apple - With Moats To Keep The Competitors Out [View article]
    Good points on growth, bgold. But better to buy before capex picks up while valuation is cheap than to buy when growth is popping, no?
    Apr 9 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why HCI Is Still A Buy After Last Year's Gains (And Last Week's Losses) [View article]
    The talk on HCI's recent decline is focused on its earnings, which surely played a role. But what's interesting is that when it got hit in January, that coincided with its announcement that it was the first Fla. P&C insurer to offer flood insurance. The more recent hit coincided not only with earnings but with new federal flood insurance legislation being passed, which I believe caps what insurers can charge. Is the street just really down on HCI because of flood insurance? I'd welcome everyone's thoughts.
    Mar 10 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Bubbles: Bargains Abound In This Overlooked Industry [View article]
    Yes, the CR looks only at current liabilities, not long-term liabilities -- can be a bit confusing.
    Dec 4 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Bubbles: Bargains Abound In This Overlooked Industry [View article]
    The current ratio is equal to current assets/current liabilities. The most recent data for JOY shows about $3.1B in total current assets and about $1.525B in total current liabilities. 3.1/1.525=2.03.

    http://bit.ly/1bE3KPI
    Dec 2 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Embrace The Headwinds For HollyFrontier [View article]
    They were pre-merger, but I believe that after a merger the new company's financials are revised to reflect what earnings would have been had the companies been together at that time.
    Oct 18 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Embrace The Headwinds For HollyFrontier [View article]
    Thanks for all of these points guys. The question that started this was a bit beyond my areas of expertise -- appreciate the feedback.
    Oct 17 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Embrace The Headwinds For HollyFrontier [View article]
    Yes, it's the "Magic Formula" strategy from Little Book.
    Oct 17 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 International Stocks Offering Big Value In Fearful Times [View article]
    TEO has set aside about P$3 billion for future dividends in the first two quarters of 2013, but hasn't yet paid one this year. It looks like the last dividend it paid was an annual dividend in May 2012, from which the yield I referenced is derived. Not sure why they haven't yet paid one this year -- typically they pay one in April or May, and I can't seem to find any explanation on their site. Definitely something to keep in mind when considering TEO -- thanks for pointing that out.
    Sep 3 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chevron Is A Buy [View article]
    It includes projected dividend payouts in the total return (by using estimating future EPS and the historical payout rate), but does not account for dividends being reinvested.
    Aug 20 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chevron Is A Buy [View article]
    The 16% figure is not a projection, but a historical growth rate based on the average of the three-, four-, and five-year EPS growth rates. Toward the end of the article I mention that the projected long-term growth rate is about 4.5%.
    Aug 16 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chevron Is A Buy [View article]
    The trade alert signal that triggered the "buy" signal on Chevron has historically averaged a 15.7% return over a three-month period. That gain would put CVX at $142.51 by the end of the alert period (Nov. 5). In terms of longer-term price targets, my Warren Buffett-based model expects an average annual return of 10.7% on CVX over the next decade, but I should note that overall the Buffett-based model does not have interest in CVX.
    Aug 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Buy-And-Hold Strategies That Beat The Market-Timers [View article]
    There surely were people who got back in below their exit point, but according to Hulbert's data they were few and far between -- only about 25% of newsletters/advisors beat the market between the '07 peak and March of this year, and he said that "none of them did so by getting out at or near the top and getting in at or near the bottom." The point I was trying to make is how hard it is to get the timing right, and how fundamental-focused, long-only strategies like the ones I mentioned can put up strong returns even during fear-filled, slow-growth periods.
    Apr 4 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Buy-And-Hold Strategies That Beat The Market-Timers [View article]
    Maybe I should have made this more clear, but when I'm talking about buy-and-hold, I'm not talking about just buying a stock and holding it forever. I buy stocks using fundamental and financial criteria, and then sell when a stock doesn't meet those criteria anymore (and I replace it with a new stock that does). I was talking more about sticking to a long-focused strategy for the long term, and not trying to jump in and out of the market based on short-term factors.
    Apr 4 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Way to Find Value [View article]
    Yes, we've had some pretty big winners from that list. Thanks for pointing that out, UbuTranscendent!
    Mar 5 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Too Much Portfolio Watching Is Hazardous -- And Unnecessary [View article]
    The Validea system is focused on identifying individual stocks, not ETFs, but if I were forced to choose one or two value ETFs it would probably be the Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF and the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF.

    http://bit.ly/15nFwTC

    http://bit.ly/XfoYv8
    Mar 1 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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