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John Vincent

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  • Tracking Carl Icahn's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Thank you for reading.

    The eBay stake was not in the Q4 2013 13F report on which this article was based. That position became public information when eBay disclosed the details in its 4th quarter press release filed on 1/22/2014 - it is a 0.82% stake in common shares & options. Follow the link for details: http://bit.ly/Ol05Ny .

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 21 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Carl Icahn's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    The following report filed on 12/9/2013 says indicative NAV as of 11/30/2013 was $8,668M: http://1.usa.gov/MJYG26 . At ~114M units outstanding, that translates to ~$76 per unit. The premium to that NAV is around 45%.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 21 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking George Soros's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi Nate,

    Thank you for your comment.

    Soros has had a short position in SPY since 2011 but the position sizing has shifted substantially almost every quarter. The current sizing is the highest it has ever been.

    It is hard to make a clear biasing judgment with long calls/puts in the 13Fs because the information is incomplete - the strike prices and the expiry dates are not disclosed. Further, Soros' active trading style makes following him a futile strategy - a better strategy is to see what trends he is focusing on and make an assessment based on that.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 20 07:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Carl Icahn's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Thank you for your comment.

    IEP is a holding company with an investment segment. The holding company owns several businesses including majority ownerships in ARII, TPCA, FDML, and CVI and 100% ownership in several private businesses. The investment segment has large positions in CHK, FRX, NFLX, RIG, AAPL, HLF, NUAN, and TLM . Please check out the following presentation (Slide 5 and Slide 9) for a more complete understanding: http://bit.ly/1boyYv7

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 20 05:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking John Paulson's Paulson & Company Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Thank for your comment.

    I am not certain that Paulson had over-subscription privilege. The following link says the sponsors and their affiliates (Apollo Global & TPG Global) intend to exercise over-subscription privilege: http://bit.ly/1jQ4ll7 . While they have collaborated in a number of deals with Paulson, I am not sure whether they did on this one. Do you have a link that confirms your information?

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking John Paulson's Paulson & Company Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi David,

    Thank you for your comment.

    The last line in the spreadsheet is a consolidation of equity positions that are very small (less than 0.5% of the overall US long portfolio - it does not mean they are small caps stocks) and notes (disclosing debt holdings is not a regulatory requirement but for some reason Paulson has them in the 13F).

    Interesting observation on his Gold position.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 02:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial Holdings Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Thank you for your comments.

    Super-investor presence is huge in SD and it has increased over the last year. Here are the top ones:

    Leon Cooperman - 40.5M shares
    TPG-Axon - 36.2M shares
    Prem Watsa - 32.46M shares
    Mount Kellet - 25.22M shares

    The presence is very strong on CHK as well. But arbtrader's point is key - while super-investor presence helps with initiating a position, unless the investment is based on some formula, what helps you hold against volatility is your confidence in your own research.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Glenn Greenberg's Brave Warrior Advisors Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    It is corrected now.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Thank you for reading.

    It will be interesting to see the valuation of Lands' End. Given they paid $1.9B in cash in 2002 for that business, it is highly unlikely that ROIC on that will be any good.

    Hershberger, I am not certain SHLD will receive cash from the spinoff, although some debt will probably be transferred. Do you have a link to the information you quote?

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 01:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Einhorn's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi Jan,

    OIS received a lot of ink last year due to the Ira Sohn pitch by Einhorn. Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital is the only one among the super-investors with a long position in OII, per Dataroma: http://bit.ly/1kUSUJb.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Glenn Greenberg's Brave Warrior Advisors Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi vigma,

    Thank you for reading and digging out the figures. I will put in a correction request.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 19 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Einhorn's Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi Jan,

    Thank you for your comment.

    I checked the 13Fs going back five years and can't find OII listed. So, not sure.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 17 07:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Glenn Greenberg's Brave Warrior Advisors Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi vigma,

    Thank you for your comments.

    I looked in Google Finance and it shows KMR trading at $72.32 on 12/17/2013 and $78.34 on 10/22/2013 - the discrepancy may be because I did not go to the level of checking intra-day quotes. What data source are you looking at?

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 16 12:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    Hi Retail Investor,

    Thank you for your comment.

    Agree on the reward potential of FNMA that you summarized - one has to be comfortable with the "binary outcome" nature of this before starting a position. Appreciate the link to your research - some good ideas to dig into!

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 16 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Portfolio - Q4 2013 Update [View article]
    The 2/2009 Outstanding Investor Digest interview revealed his thinking at the time:

    "We were buying below liquidation values. I still believe that Sears is quite reminiscent of Warren Buffett’s days with the Berkshire textile mill and that inflection point when he decided it was time to move on and reallocate the cash to more productive uses. There’s nothing I see at this point which tells me that will not happen at Sears…"

    More recently, he said the key to the value of Sears RE is understanding the history of anchors in malls in the US.

    Overall, it boils down to "blind-trust" in Eddie Lampert's capital allocation skills.

    All the best,
    John.
    Feb 16 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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