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John Vincent

 
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  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi All,

    Thank you for your comments.

    It looks like not listing the minutely small stakes has resulted in undue confusion. I will plan to rework the format of this article in the next iteration so that all positions are included. That way, discrepancies compared to what is reported at other sites can be largely avoided.

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 19 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi tuliptown,

    Thank you for your comment.

    Berkshire did have DE last quarter. It is not in the spreadsheet because the stake was very small. That position was eliminated this quarter.

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 19 06:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi ydk1940@hotmail.com,

    Thank you for your comment.

    Some of the apparent discrepancy is because this article focuses on the larger positions and ignores the changes to the very small stakes. The changes to the minor stakes are usually just noise and so not very relevant. Other discrepancies are because of wrong reporting at other sites. For example, if one looks at just the share counts, 8M shares of LMCK were added. But, that was because they distributed Series C shares - there was no change to the actual position.

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 19 06:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi Beursbox,

    Thank you for your comment.

    Verizon is listed under the heading "Kept Steady" in the text. It says the stake was increased ~36% LAST QUARTER, meaning Q2 2014. It was kept steady this quarter (Q3 2014) and that is what is shown in the spreadsheet. Hope this explanation clears up the confusion.

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 19 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Holdings - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi jpau,

    There is a small amount of THRX debt in the report and I am not sure why they keep reporting it - debt issues are not 13F securities and so there is no regulatory requirement to report them. Even so, that position is in every 13F report since Q1 2009.

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 17 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Corporation: 2019 Unsecured Debt And Warrant Rights Offering, And Its Impact On Share Price [View article]
    Hi Fair Value,

    Thank you for your comment.

    I believe you are correct. Do you have a reference that confirms this?

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 5 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Yacktman Asset Management Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi Key,

    Thank you for your comment.

    I am suggesting neither. In the case of AVP, a new buyer would have a cost-basis much lower than Yacktman's overall cost-basis. So, it is worthwhile to do further research and decide on your own whether to buy.

    The stake reduction this quarter was 0.24% which is too small to indicate he has started selling. Such pattern usually is the result of redemptions - managers generally try to keep the allocation constant against redemptions and so sell shares uniformly across the portfolio.

    All the best,
    John.
    Nov 5 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings Corporation: 2019 Unsecured Debt And Warrant Rights Offering, And Its Impact On Share Price [View article]
    Hi All,

    Thank you for your comments.

    The final prospectus differ from my assumptions in a few ways:

    a) Instead of one right per share, it is one right for 85.1872 shares. The ratio with respect to the warrants is the same and so my fair value estimate for the warrant remains the same. But, one right will allow purchase of $500 principal of the notes compared to $5.87. Also no fractional rights will be issued and so the small folks will get short-changed: 1) the value of the fractional rights will transfer over to the folks who make use of over-subscription privileges, and 2) some of the rights may not even get exercised (over-subscription comes into play again). Eddie Lampert & Bruce Berkowitz control over 70% of the shares outstanding & they will probably gain from this,

    b) The fair value of the rights will be around $315: my fair value estimate for a warrant was $18 and it was multiplied by 17.5994 (the number of warrants per right) to arrive at this value. It is likely that the rights will trade below this number and continue to go down (low liquidity, demand, and urgency to sell before expiry) till the last scheduled day of trading (November 13). Here again, the smaller folks are negatively impacted, and

    c) Amazingly, the stock has gone ex-rights as of 10/28/2014 although the final prospectus was issued only on 10/30/2014. The prospectus (http://1.usa.gov/1xGYX79) has the following line that clears this up: "If you sell or transfer any shares of Common Stock in a transaction that settles before the record date, you will not receive any Rights described in this prospectus supplement in respect of the shares sold"

    All the best,
    John.
    Oct 31 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi On Base,

    Thank you for your comment.

    Fisher's private client group touts personalized portfolios and so each portfolio is constructed based on client needs. The 13F lists the sum total of all such portfolio holdings (including institutional money) invested in US stocks.

    All the best,
    John.
    Oct 22 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Hi johnboy1865,

    Thank you for your comment.

    The references to Q1 2014 are correct. For LYG & SIEGY, the last significant activity happened in Q1 and hence the reference. For UBS, there was a large stake increase in Q1 2014.

    All the best,
    John.
    Oct 21 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Baupost Group's New Position Suggests A Possible Takeout And 100%+ Gains [View article]
    Although I wouldn't go to the extend of emphatically stating Klarman traded on inside knowledge that was bought and paid for, the pattern of trades are suspect: The position was at 29.7M shares in September 2013. The stake was increased by another 24M shares in the following months and reached 53.3M shares by March 2014. The acquisition followed in June 2014 at a huge 4x premium. The stake increases were as though Klarman had anticipated the acquisition. Please see my series on Klarman for the details Klarman's trading pattern on IDIX: http://seekingalpha.co...

    All the best,
    John.
    Oct 11 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indirect Routes To Alibaba: Yahoo Vs. Softbank [View article]
    Hi All,

    Both Yahoo & Softbank has options to reduce or even eliminate the tax impact. Without tax impact, the expected sensitivity to changes in Alibaba share price goes up to 59% for Softbank (compared to 38% assuming 36% tax impact) and 65% for Yahoo (compared to 40% assuming 38% tax impact).

    All the best,
    John.
    Sep 17 04:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Verizon Could Have 30% Upside In 12-18 Months [View article]
    Hi Thomas,

    Great article - Thank you.

    About REIT, it looks like their stance has changed. In the Goldman Sachs conference last week, the CEO said the following in reply to a question about Winstream's REIT structure: "So financially, it doesn't look like it would have the same impact for us and strategically it's probably not the right thing for us to do here."

    Regards,
    John.
    Sep 17 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Mondays - September 15, 2014 [View article]
    Hi Asif,

    Nice to see you back in SA.

    All the best,
    John.
    Sep 15 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Indirect Routes To Alibaba: Yahoo Vs. Softbank [View article]
    Hi CubRob,

    Thank you for your comment.

    BABA IPO pricing & the prospectus update were probably the key items that sparked the sudden interest.

    All the best,
    John.
    Sep 10 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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