Comments on John Wake's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-wake/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-693159 693159 Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:55:48 -0400 Prices have been indeed slammed by foreclosures, and now prices will rise off of this artificial bottom, just like a parabolic sell off in the stock market, prices are artificially squashed due to too many bank owned properties. If you look at the cost of building one of these homes right now, they are possibly 80 k undervalued to current building prices. No new homes will be built until prices of these homes climb from here. Smart real estate investors are buying up these homes like crazy, now is the time, buy buy buy. 70 k homes renting for 800 per month, are you kidding me? Even if rents dropped to 550 per month, they would still be worth buying.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138036-phoenix-housing-inventory-down?source=feed#comment-509163 509163 Tue, 19 May 2009 01:30:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138036-phoenix-housing-inventory-down?source=feed#comment-507627 507627 Sun, 17 May 2009 19:14:52 -0400
1) People have decided to keep their homes instead of sell.

2) Prices have dropped too low for some to sell (negative equity) or
a refusal to sell (struggle and wait) rather than "giveaway" their
largest asset.

Unless it's the first above, we can expect any attempt at price increases to be met with an accompanying rise in inventory for sale , stunting prices.

Thus "jumping in" is not necessary - prices will bump along for awhile before any meaningful rise that holds.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138036-phoenix-housing-inventory-down?source=feed#comment-507544 507544 Sun, 17 May 2009 16:58:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138036-phoenix-housing-inventory-down?source=feed#comment-507195 507195 Sun, 17 May 2009 11:25:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-341676 341676 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 14:29:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-341198 341198 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 07:39:45 -0500
The statistics have been compiled based on information provided by 12,000 corporate executives throughout the world. A system of rating the banking systems of individual countries was conducted by participants answering a number of questions and rating the banks on a scale of one to seven, one being in need of government support seven being entirely healthy.

Canada’s baking system, lead by Royal bank, CIBC, Scotiabank, TD Bank, Bank of Montreal and National Bank, received the highest rank in the world, scoring 6.8 on the rating scale.

The top 10 safest countries for banking are currently as follows:

Canada (6.8)
Sweden (6.7)
Luxembourg (6.7)
Australia (6.7)
Denmark (6.7)
Netherlands (6.7)
Belgium (6.6)
New Zealand (6.6)
Ireland (6.6)
Malta (6.6)

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-340788 340788 Mon, 29 Dec 2008 15:22:20 -0500
John Wake, M.S., is an Associate Broker with HomeSmart Real Estate in Scottsdale, Arizona. John takes a highly analytical approach to managing his clients' purchases and sales of luxury real estate in Scottsdale and Paradise Valley, Arizona. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-340630 340630 I agree with Scotty above... The increasing of the value of a home > is actually of little value to the Owner. The increase in value only > adds more to your Property tax bill... if you sell, you will still > need to live somewhere and the price of a new home will be higher > so you will have to spend all of your gain for the next home...or... > if you rent the monthly costs will be higher, again eliminating your > "perceived" gain. > With that in mind... ***where is the advantage for a Homes value > to Increase?*** Of course, if someone dies, the heirs get more money > if the home goes up in value..but does anyone buy a home planning > for their heirs to make more money when they die? I certainly hope > not. > The farther down the price of homes drops... the better off everyone > will be as their is hardly any advantage for the Homeowner to have > the value increase. > Lets put the extra money in something else to keep the economy humming.]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:27:37 -0500

On Dec 28 06:02 PM ATWshop wrote:

> I agree with Scotty above... The increasing of the value of a home
> is actually of little value to the Owner. The increase in value only
> adds more to your Property tax bill... if you sell, you will still
> need to live somewhere and the price of a new home will be higher
> so you will have to spend all of your gain for the next home...or...
> if you rent the monthly costs will be higher, again eliminating your
> "perceived" gain.
> With that in mind... ***where is the advantage for a Homes value
> to Increase?*** Of course, if someone dies, the heirs get more money
> if the home goes up in value..but does anyone buy a home planning
> for their heirs to make more money when they die? I certainly hope
> not.
> The farther down the price of homes drops... the better off everyone
> will be as their is hardly any advantage for the Homeowner to have
> the value increase.
> Lets put the extra money in something else to keep the economy humming.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-340586 340586 Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:57:01 -0500
Maybe they won't go any higher for a long time, and that defines intrinsic worth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-340415 340415 Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:02:48 -0500
Here's the deal. The swing has swung too far. I bought a house in Phoenix in 2001, sold it in 2005 for a profit. Now that same model home, same neighborhood, is selling for exactly what I paid in 2001. And I bought mine with a substantial discount over the others that bought in there.

Like any city in the US, the farther out you go from the city, the harder the fall. But let's be realistic here. If we're already at 2000-2001 prices, which we are in many areas around Phoenix, and clearly 2001 was pre-bubble, then wouldn't you say we've gone far enough?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-340040 340040 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 20:34:33 -0500
I'm not saying prices won't go back to 1997 levels. At the current rate of decline, home prices could be there in six months or so. But then again, if we extrapolate the current rate of price decline, homes will be free in 2 years... so extrapolation is not such a great economic forecasting technique.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339972 339972 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 18:02:57 -0500 With that in mind... ***where is the advantage for a Homes value to Increase?*** Of course, if someone dies, the heirs get more money if the home goes up in value..but does anyone buy a home planning for their heirs to make more money when they die? I certainly hope not.
The farther down the price of homes drops... the better off everyone will be as their is hardly any advantage for the Homeowner to have the value increase.
Lets put the extra money in something else to keep the economy humming.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339964 339964 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 17:44:41 -0500
"Prices must drop to 1997-98 levels in all markets, period. The banks must be held accountable for this mess and they must suffer along with everyone else.

Also, the 1997 tax exemptions on home sale capital gains ought to be repealed. This was an underlying factor and rarely discussed incentive for the price bubble. If and when prices do stablize, we do not want to trigger off another bubble with this ill-advised exemption.
Reply"

Pre-Bubble means about 1998 and possible add 10 years of normal inflation
and maybe that's where the trail leads? I also might add owning a home is
much more expensive than 10 years ago thanks to much higher property taxes
and much higher insurance rates, water and utilities, stricter codes, and
maintenance costs. The worst should be over but I expect another 4-5
years of mostly sideways movement.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339960 339960 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 17:28:59 -0500
Usually after bubbles of that magnitude, the overshoot the other way can be huge. One only has to look at the Naz or any other bubble that has occurred. Real estate in Phoenix, Florida and especially Las Vegas have a ways to go still to the downside.

Too many clowns get stomped on trying to call bottoms. If you cant handle a 10% drop in prices from here or more, then why try to catch a falling knife.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339893 339893 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 15:14:17 -0500 www.youtube.com/watch?.... copy and paste to your web browser ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339881 339881 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 15:00:20 -0500
copy and paste to your web browser ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339802 339802 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 12:39:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339790 339790 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 12:10:54 -0500
That would be collusion. That would be a criminal act. Only a total scumbag would even think of such an anti-competitive, socialism-for-the-home... policy.

Have you ever heard of a home buyer? Do you not realize that it is innocent, responsible home buyers that you hurt when you seek to maximize the price of a basic, necessary good: shelter?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339769 339769 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 11:41:46 -0500
Also, the 1997 tax exemptions on home sale capital gains ought to be repealed. This was an underlying factor and rarely discussed incentive for the price bubble. If and when prices do stablize, we do not want to trigger off another bubble with this ill-advised exemption.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339738 339738 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 11:13:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339737 339737 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 11:12:19 -0500
cost benefit analysis and time value of money in this environment where every bank needs as much cash on the books would lead them to the quickets solution - sell as quick as they can, and get rid of inventory to raise cash. same thing every retailer is doing by slashing costs this holiday season - sell inventory as quick as possible b/c it is not stabilizing anytime soon. if they aren't buying now, then what pushes buyers to start buying in the next 6 months. especially with estimated 500k more job cuts per month over next 3-5 months.

phoenix was the poster child of quick "noveau" money - home equity, real estate developers, brokers, agents, construction, etc. everyone wanted the quick buck now, to further their glitzy Hummer, 5 BR Palm Springs like lifestyle, with nothing put away for savings, nor any real thought to real value creation. Phoenix is one big house of cards. Scary part - the movie Pump up the Volume was a great foreshadowing of the damage to come.

if you throw out "easy" solutions, do some more due diligence on what it actually takes to implement those solutions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339677 339677 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 09:45:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339671 339671 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 09:38:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339670 339670 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 09:36:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339661 339661 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 09:27:28 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339657 339657 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 09:20:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339656 339656 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 09:20:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112390-over-correction-in-the-phoenix-housing-market?source=feed#comment-339624 339624 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 08:30:47 -0500
With rising unemployment we still have yet to reach the bottom unless if it is government induced.

In which case it is artificial.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71182-the-reverse-ripple-theory-of-metropolitan-home-price-corrections?source=feed#comment-146688 146688 Mon, 07 Apr 2008 19:36:47 -0400