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John Ward
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Equities trader. I currently live in California. Email: john.authorego@gmail.com Twitter: JWard_73
  • September 30, 2010


    Just when it looked as though the market was about to get parabolic…

     

    The good news is Thursday’s session didn’t close as ugly as it looked it might when noon rolled around and we were at the lows of the day.  In the end, it couldn’t be said that there wasn’t at least a modicum of support.  The bad news was the action in some of the leaders.  Stocks like FFIV and NFLX reversed hard, while others: VMW, AAPL and APKT, just to name a few, fell on heavy volume.  A pullback here shouldn’t take anybody by surprise.  It’s not set in stone, of course, but one has to at least admit the possibility.  It wouldn't have been unreasonable to pare back some positions in the face of such a hard reversal.

     

    A few “notables” displaying resilience:        

     

    BORN

    RAX

    PAY

    ADTN

    AGP

     

    Take nothing for granted here.  Don’t get complacent.  No need to run for the hills, yet remain alert and, above all, stay humble.  You’re Dante and the market’s Virgil right now.  Listen to what is being said.  Thursday may have been a one day affair, or it could be the beginning of a very normal and orderly pullback or, perhaps, something more sinister.  To resist forming an opinion takes mental toughness.

     

    That being said, going long VXX or SQQQ or both could be profitable for those who are fleet of foot.  Still, shorting here does seem a tad premature.  Yet I did take note of three stocks that might break the hardest should we fall:  ANF (cover above 9/30 high), JPM (cover above the 50dma) and MA (cover above the 200dma).  Truth be told, though, there just isn’t much to short.  Also, consider that everybody sees FFIV and NFLX, VMW and AAPL and APKT.  Probably best to just cool your heels and let things play out…. 



    Disclosure: Long: BIDU, NFLX, RVBD, PCLN, DGP
    Tags: FFIV, NFLX, VMW, AAPL, APKT, BORN, RAX, PAY, ADTN, ANTM, VXX, SQQQ, ANF, JPM, MA
    Sep 30 10:38 PM | Link | Comment!
  • September, 27, 2010

    The market pulled back on Monday in rather orderly fashion, more or less, and seeing that volume was low it would be tough to look at the session in a negative light.  I’ve yet to see any evidence that would suggest this rally is anything but healthy, even in the face of weakness in financials.  Remember, we’re not economists, we’re traders/investors; our area of expertise is supply and demand.  The world might be ending, but if they’re bidding stocks up, we buy.  Execution is made that much easier by ignoring entirely both the political and financial media, including those websites and blogs that, frankly, are more guilty pleasure than anything.  Trust your own judgment.     

     

    “First tier” leadership is extended for the most part, though there are those that could be offering entries in the form of add-on bases like the ever famous “three-weeks-tight,” for example: RVBD, ADTN, PAY, ACTG, CTSH, ONE come to mind.  “Second tier” leaders are now making themselves known and I’d be at a loss to explain how this could possibly be a negative.     

     

    “A” Group

    BIDU

    AAPL

    CRM

    NFLX

    MELI

    NTAP

    OPEN

    ARUN

    GMCR

    AMZN

    FFIV

    PCLN

    VMW

    ROVI

    RAX

    TIBX

    MMYT

    ADTN

    PAY

    RVBD

    APKT

    CMG

    LFT

    ULTA

    GOLD

    PRGO

    CXO

     

    “B” Group

    LOGM

    OSIS

    GSM

    CIS

    SFSF

    ASPS

    ZOLL

    AGP

    CRIC

    HMSY

    AGP

    JOBS

    SIMG

    ACTG

    CTSH

    EZCH

    VSI

    BRK/B

    IGTE

    RES

    CYBX

    ACOM

    SVN

    EBIX

    SLXP

    XXIA

    PPO

    HLF

    RURL

    SPRD

     

    “Recent IPOs”

    ST

    CRU

    MOTR

    AUMN

    CIS

    KH

    IL

    MERU

    ONE

    RP

    MDMD

    HSFT

    QLIK

    The screens I run night in and night out continue to snag more and more stocks and both my watchlists continue to materially outperform the market; most importantly, my portfolio is up 146% YTD.  The trend is up and to fight it is futile, regardless of the problems our country may be facing....   



    Disclosure: Long: BIDU, CRM, NFLX, MELI, PCLN, VMW, DGP
    Sep 28 1:07 AM | Link | 4 Comments
  • August 26, 2010

    Thursday’s session was an interesting one in that many a market participant seemed confident a bounce was imminent and for about an hour they were quite correct.  Still, volume wasn’t exactly impressive as we rose and, once resistance reared its ugly head, the market turned tail and surrendered to the prevailing trend.  Volume ran lower all day and, to tell you the truth, I was hoping the session would just close flat.  The market had other things in mind, however, as apparently there were those who simply couldn’t hold into Friday’s Q2 GDP revision. 

     

    Where we go from here is anybody’s guess.  What is possible and what is probable must be considered, however.  There are quite a few once-promising stocks that, instead of evolving into the second wave of leadership that was needed, have for now fallen out of favor, stocks like WBMD and PWER. Yet I guess it depends on how you look at it.  You could say that some of these once-promising stocks are promising yet again, except this time as future short targets: THOR and FNSR, for example; however, there are others that could simply be basing, like GIL (double bottom).  At any rate, it always helps to monitor these situations to see how they resolve themselves as they tend to herald the market’s true intentions.

     

    Don’t get me wrong, there are not a few stocks that have held up well during the market's recent correction.  It goes without saying that these must absolutely be watched closely.  To my mind, they are the linchpin of this market.  If they can consolidate properly, breakout and then get reinforced by a second wave of leaders, then this market stands a chance of staging a rally; if they fail, say goodnight.   

     

    Now it’s no secret that trading has been especially slow of late – in fact, trading this month is on pace to be the slowest in over a decade.  That’s saying something, considering that there’s a thing called the internet and that our markets are now accessible to investors the world over with just a click of the mouse.  Volume has tripled over the last decade and yet for all intents and purposes our markets are pretty much where they were in August, 1999.  Take a look at a monthly chart of the Dow if you don’t believe me.  Now I’ve been taught that heavy volume without further price progress is churning and that churning is distribution.  Now if the market were a stock I’d say that we’ve really been doing nothing but churning for the last 11 years.  I’d also take note of that big, multi-year Head and Shoulders pattern.  But the market is not a stock so there’s no use in noticing I suppose….




    Watchlists

     

    Longs:

    “A” Group

    AKAM

    FFIV

    RVBD

    VRX
    VMW

    CRM

    ISLN

    ROVI

    PCLN

    NFLX

    CMG

    PAY

     

     

    “B” Group

    CIS

    HSFT

    QLIK

    TIBX

    OPEN

    SXCI

    ADTN

    IPGP

    SPRD

    CTXS

     

    Shorts:

     

    SNDK (on a bounce off the 200dma into, say, $40-42 area of resistance)

    SBUX (could short it here, cut loss 10dma)

    GS (fell below 50dma on an uptick in volume)



    Disclosure: Long: SQQQ, SPXU, TZA, DGP; short: AAPL, GOOG
    Aug 26 10:58 PM | Link | Comment!
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