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John Wilson

 
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  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    Interesting-
    US becoming some sort of camp with a high fence with wire barriers facing inward?

    State Dept. increases fee to renounce US Citizenship from $450 to $2350.

    Forbes:
    "State Department interim rule just raised the fee for renunciation of U.S. citizenship to $2,350 from $450. Critics note that it’s more than twenty times the average level in other high-income countries. The State Department says it’s about demand on their services and all the extra workload they have to process people who are on their way out."
    http://onforb.es/1xQCcl2
    Nov 23, 2014. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! EBOLA ?? Part 4 !! [View instapost]
    You live in NY IT, so which story is true about this woman's death who came from Guinea Africa three weeks ago?:

    NY Times story,
    Woman Who Died in Brooklyn Tests Negative for Ebola. http://nyti.ms/1xk74Fg

    or:

    Ebola cover-up: Guinea woman who 'dropped dead with blood pouring from her nose and mouth' in NYC declared Ebola-free
    Learn more: http://bit.ly/1xk733Y

    Since when does blood run out of your nose and mouth when you have a heart attack?
    Nov 22, 2014. 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Building A Core Investment Program For The Next 20 Years [View instapost]
    Peter
    Excellent coverage of the history of banking in the early US before the Revolutionary War, but why did you entitle it,
    "Building A Core Investment Program for the next 20 years?"

    Your recent comment posted today about naked shorting of gold on Doug Eberhardts latest article would make a good instablog article and you could expand on it too.

    So do you have a core investment program for the next 20 years?
    Nov 22, 2014. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    IT:
    Wondering if Fridays S&P500 huge gap higher -hitting 2071.46 in the first half hour on news China lowered interest rates could have been the top of this rally for now. It went down the rest of the day except last few hours rebounded a little and closed way off the high for the day.

    That looked like a big short covering rally. That huge spike would make a nice peak. We will see if there is any follow-through next week.

    Look at a two year daily chart of the S&P500. You will see what is know as the “megaphone pattern” that has formed, May through 11/21/14. It is a “broadening” type of formation as the highs get higher and lows get lower. It is somewhat ominous. Just do a little research on “Megaphone pattern” or “Broadening top pattern”.
    ======================...

    One question I had on Doug Eberhardt's last article was,

    "what percentage of US Citizens may actually own gold?"

    Does anyone want to take a shot at it and provide numbers or your estimate of gold [physical] stackers in the US?
    Nov 22, 2014. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    Doug, you have attracted some dynamite commenters above. I know you follow the comments of our friend Contrarianadvisor who says that there will be a deflationary bust and the Fed will really increase its easing and stimulus (don't know how you can ease below o.oo%) to fight deflation. What I have never been able to understand is how the "stimulus" money will get into the hand of the consumers to create money turnover or velocity. Questions above relate to this. I don't think "heroic" stimulus can really work.

    There is no mechanism or system to implement this.

    The Fed can supply trillions of dollars to the big banks but they are not going to hand it out to the great unwashed masses. They will only loan to well qualified borrowers. In a deflationary scenario such borrowers will not be found or will not be borrowing. The credit will sit on their balance sheets earning .25%

    Wait, though there IS a mechanism for transferring money to the consumer. I read about it in "Money Wars" by Jim Rickards.

    There is only one way it works though, and it does not work for everyone. If you get enough people to work for the government or work for government subsidized companies, and also get many people who are entitled to, well, entitled to entitlements, the government can then transfer large amount of money to them, and then you may get "money velocity."

    This is how inflation worked in the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation 1921 to 1924. The Republic was able to pay government employees ever increasing wages. Also gov't subsidized companies with unions were able to be recipients of higher transfer payments.

    What about everyone else who did not work for the government? The retirees on fixed income did not have tall building to jump off of. The expression,
    "Let's just put our heads in the oven and turn the gas on die," comes from this period. This is apparently what many older Germans on fixed pensions or savings did. Their life's savings became worthless in just a few months.

    We are almost to the point where this will work here. There are perhaps 40 million or more US citizens who work either directly or indirectly (contractors) for government in the US.
    http://bit.ly/1z66Nbd
    I work for a contractor who has about 12,000 CSR people just to talk to people on certain gov/t health programs, to explain how it works.

    Oh, and the people who don't work for the government... well there is the 47% who rely on some sort of entitlement. They would be in line for direct Federal transfers. So we do have the" socialistic foundation" in place for direct government stimulus via money transfer.

    The Socialistic Foundation: Gov't employment & entitlements.

    Too bad about the middle class though. They may be left out because they just are not in the transfer pipeline.

    I bet this will really make Vooter mad.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    Doug:
    I have tried to search out this info before and I don't think anyone knows the answer, but do you have any idea what percentage of US citizens may buy and hold gold? If only a small percentage actually have investments, like 10 or 20%, of these maybe only 5 to 10% might own gold. That would be only 0.5% to 1% of US citizens that may own gold.
    Nov 21, 2014. 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    AOG
    You totally get it - Unfortunately I am afraid our Choir is not very large.

    I'll compliment what you say about QE with this additional statement; it [QE] was executed only to recapitalize the Fed's friends, the member banks and also to enable the government's spending by keeping rates artificially low and to buy its bonds when other buyers were not showing up.

    Falling wages & lost jobs and rising living costs [notice I did not use the economic term "inflation"] are the ball and chain that is dragging down the middle class.

    The banks are doing well now. The consumer like you say though, is on food stamps, Medicaid and welfare. A large segment of the US population has already sunk below lower tier G20 standards.
    Nov 20, 2014. 11:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation Still A Threat To Gold? [View article]
    "With all that printing going on, money is not circulating in the economy..."

    Good observation Doug, especially when contrasted with your first chart for M2 money supply shooting up. and it raises the question,

    "why is money not circulating, and producing the desired multiplier effect that the Fed would like to see?"

    Before answering though we must remember these charts only reflect money in the US; the US economy though the world's largest, is still just one of many in the world. The US only futures markets, more than supply and demand factors currently influence gold pricing.

    The the two charts seem to say that though there is a lot of money being created, the US consumers do not have it to spend.

    What money they do spend will be used completely for housing/rent expense, food expense which is increasing rapidly, and health care expenses, e.g. LOL "Affordable Health Care," which probably went up 50% in the last 12 months.

    This leaves them with no money for them to spend to be multiplied, as their wages are decreasing They do not borrow because they cannot pay back loans. Fed policy cannot do anything about this. Wage stagnation with food, tax, and healthcare inflation. Consumers cannot turnover the money.

    It's not so much a question of "deflation;" its more of an issue of people (back in the USA) being broke. People who are broke won't buy gold.

    Then who is buying gold? Not the consumers who are represented by the money velocity chart. Who is buying it is a good question to ask.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 88..... [View instapost]
    Monsanto, the IG Farben of the NWO wants to make sure that you don't have any choice except GMOs and anything not a GMO they want to somehow own a patent on it or forbid you from growing it. Almost everything they have ever produced has been either proven to cause or has been suspected of causing cancer.

    The first step in having any possibility of good health is to stop poisoning yourself.

    Number one poison is Coke/Pepsi with HF corn sweeter. Next is Coke/Pepsi with Aspartame. Results of drinking it: out of control weight, type two diabetes, loss of teeth, low bone density, osteoporosis, various cancers. There are probably other things too. That link to Mercola will have lots of info.
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Please Do Not Overreact - Part 2 [View article]
    More people died at Chappaquiddick than at Three Mile Island.
    (though I am not a fan of nuclear power).

    Gold is more related to government expansion in size, spending, credit and money supply, and how those who hold money lose trust in govt.
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 87......... [View instapost]
    OW
    I think what JBT means is what do you do if Walmart runs out of stuff. What if there is a supply disruption and your Walmart which has about 2 or 3 days of merchandise based on just-on-time inventory management, runs out of food. All of your food and staples supply is coming out of one basket. In an emergency, they can sell out in one day.

    No one has gardens or food supplies, well a few people. IT has his silo and bunker. There is a real potential for people running of food in just two or three days due to any wide scale situation.
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Please Do Not Overreact - Part 2 [View article]
    Thanks Lucas
    But I'm confused if Gold is linked to oil and goes down when oil goes down, then what is oil going to be at when gold is at $20? And you will be looking at a future time frame when oil reserves are falling and demand for oil increasing.

    Re: Nixon, and closing the gold window, gold went up because the other nations were holding excess reserves of US dollars which the US created by its expansionary spending, like war - Viet Nam, using debt (credit), increasing the dollars in the world. They were just saying, "go ahead and increase the supply of dollars if you want to. Since you say dollars are equal to gold, we will trade your dollars back to you in return for the gold"

    Eventually there will be another turning away from the dollar. It will be linked to oil, but it will happen as the the other nations start buying oil in currencies other than the dollar as we continue to spend and increase the supply of dollars in the world. We are pushing them to do this now by thinking we can domineer Russia and China.

    Paul Krugman declared Obama is the best president? Well I guess that settles it.

    I will be looking for $20 gold and gasoline at 25 cents a gallon again.
    Happy holidays to you.
    Nov 17, 2014. 10:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GLD: Please Do Not Overreact - Part 2 [View article]
    Lucas
    Thanks for exposing "the right wing dreams that precious metals should increase,..." We should be relieved the Tea Party schemes for gold to go up are being frustrated. I should have suspected: I heard ISIS is going to issue gold coins, and now you say the Tea Party likes gold? Its starting to make sense.

    You are also right, we should be so grateful that "Obama achieved US energy independence..." Thanks Obama!

    Wow! gold could go down to where is was 1800 to 1899?? Wasn't that $20 an ounce? That will really be a bargain. Will you buy then, or will that price just be fair value?
    Nov 16, 2014. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SeaDrill Limited: High Yield, But Is It A Buy Yet? [View instapost]
    crademan

    My thoughts are that oil refiners like those in mentioned in the article below will benefit more from falling oil prices than the producers of oil like BP Chevron or Exxon. These producers suffer lower cash flow when oil prices go down.

    The Oil refiners [compared to producers] on the other hand benefit from the lower prices, because their COSTS are going down. The crude they buy to refine becomes cheaper. Refiners would be the way to play the drop in oil prices.

    http://yhoo.it/1BtrVxo;_ylt=AwrBEiQhmmZUNXoA...

    Some of the Oil refiners have already run up in price. They just came to my attention. Mentioned in the article above, Tesoro (TSO) has really run up. Marathon (MRO) and Hollyfrontier (HFC) have not taken off yet. I have not researched them yet. MRO looks like it has good potential for a turnaround. It has just perhaps hit a double bottom.

    BP is too big and being a producer and also spending money of oil exploration, with low oil prices, they are not going to have exploding earnings. Likely lower earnings.
    Nov 15, 2014. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 87......... [View instapost]
    After writing an instablog on SeaDrill over two weeks ago, I decided to develop it into an article and then submitted it. It was very different from the original instablog. It was rejected because it was to "political" and "charged" in dealing with US sanctions against Russia. SeaDrill is effected by these sanctions. I decided to post it as an instablog. Th sanctions it the most interesting aspect of this and they affect other investing areas too.

    What I found about about sanctions was really enlightening. Where do sanctions come from? Who decides to do them? Who puts them on? Whose interest does sanctions serve?

    The answer is not what you may have thought. My view on SeaDrill and RIG is a bit different than the regular, "Wow, the yield is really high - this is a buy"

    http://bit.ly/1GUvDR0
    Nov 13, 2014. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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