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John Wilson
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Long term buyer and holder of silver. I still have silver from when it used to be the actual US money- when it had intrinsic value. I plan to hold it and hopefully accumulate more. Began investing and charting on paper in the late 1980's (hey, a computer cost $5000 then). On Gold: it's not that... More
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  • Short Term Gold H&S Bottom 3/25/14

    Took some time out from doing my taxes tonight.

    Here is what I saw forming and completing on the Comex April contract chart, 60 minute bar: a "head and shoulders" pattern. It seems to show two pretty well formed shoulders, a left and right. Neckline is 1318.

    Very sharp "head" put in at 8:45 this AM (Tuesday 3/25)

    (click to enlarge)

    Completion of this Head and shoulders would signal the end of the recent sell down from 1390 to 1312.

    I may take a short-term position in view of completion of this "bottom" in this reaction in the Dec 31 to March 13 primary move. Do I know this will absolutely signal the end of the current sell down? I will not know until it completes or fails. It just looks very likely at this point.

    Consider what else is completing at the same time:

    This H&S bottom is occurring directly above the "Golden Cross" that is occurring below.

    Gold forms H&S on a 60 minute bar chart directly above the completing "Golden Cross" of the 50 and 200 day moving averages. see chart below.

    (click to enlarge)

    If this is a fake-out, it's almost impossible to do anything more than this to fake you out. Maybe its TOO obvious?

    What else is there to say?

    Disclosure: I am long GDX, SAND.

    Mar 25 11:23 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Browsing Through VAERS Database - Echoes And Voices Of Vaccine Victims

    Preface: Katie Couric was recently viciously criticized and rebuked by the attack dog arms of the media establishment because she dared to interview mothers of deceased daughters and surviving girls who were debilitated after being vaccinated with the HPV vaccine.

    http://katiecouric.com/videos/was-the-hpv-vaccine-responsible-for-one-girls-death/

    BTW HPV vaccine (you know who I mean) wears off within 5 years. Who wants to go through a round of three expensive and possibly dangerous shots every 5 years? The VAERS database is a HHS/govt reporting system where those who have suffered an adverse reaction after receiving a vaccination may report the event. They are not encouraged to report the adverse reaction and must usually do so on their own initiative.

    Many people do not know this reporting system exists. It is estimated that for every adverse reaction reported, there are about 10 that are not reported.

    Browsing through the VAERS database.

    http://vaers.hhs.gov/index

    These are a few records that I browsed and looked at doing a "keyword search." Your have to open a data file first. It will look like a continuous mass of text. You could save it and then import it into a spreadsheet doing a CVS import. You can still find reports of death and other adverse reactions by following my steps below.

    Open a data file, think of a word like "miscarriage" or "death" or "autism" Do a <ctrl+F> keyword search using the keyword. See what you come up with. The several accounts below were just from 2014. There are probably a lot of "miscarriage" events if you searched in 2009 or when the Swine Flu hysteria was at its peak.

    Actual VAERS accounts of adverse reactions or death:

    Miscarriage

    01/27/2014,"Case number PHEH2014US001723, is a combined initial and follow up spontaneous report received from the nurse on 20 Jan 2014 and 21 Jan 2014. This report refers to a 21-year-old pregnant female. Her medical history and concomitant medications was not reported. She was vaccinated with FLUVIRIN (batch number: not reported) intramuscularly on 29 Oct 2013. It was reported that she did not know that she was 5 weeks pregnant at the time of vaccination. It was reported that the hospital threatened her job if she did not get vaccinated. On an unspecified date one week after vaccination, she started bleeding. The doctor at the emergency room could not determine the cause of bleeding. The baby had a heart rate of 152 beats/min on 12 Nov 2013. She had a miscarriage on 13 Nov 2013. She was 5.5 weeks pregnant at the time of miscarriage.

    Death after Gardasil vaccine.

    518872,01/10/2014,MI,15.0,15,,F,01/10/2014,"This spontaneous report as received from nurse refers to a 14 year old female patient with attention deficit disorder and anxiety and with no drug reaction or allergies. On 14-JUL-2011 the patient was vaccinated with first dose of GARDASIL (dose, route of administration, lot number and expiration date were not provided), on 25-JUL-2012 patient received second dose of GARDASIL (dose, route of administration, lot number and expiration date were not provided) and on 21-NOV-2013 patient received third dose of recalled GARDASIL (lot number: J007354, expiration date 20-FEB-2016) (dose and route of administration were not provided). Secondary suspect therapy included FLUMIST which was given on 21-NOV-2013. Concomitant therapies included ADDERALL XR and CELEXA. It was reported that patient complained of headache on 04-JAN-2014 and she went to bed early that night. It was reported that ""she never woke up"". Patient died on 04-JAN-2014. Nurse has not been informed of the autopsy result so she could not determinate cause of death. Lab diagnostic studies were not performed. It was also reported that approximately 27 doses of the recalled lot of GARDASIL were also administered at reporter's facility but she has not heard of any other adverse effects. The outcome of headache was unknown. PNEUMOVAX23 and FLUZONE and DEATH

    Person gets Pneumonia vaccine, then gets pneumonia, never recovers from pneumonia and dies within two years after vaccination of respiratory distress.

    519375,01/15/2014,,26.0,26,,F,01/15/2014,"Information was received regarding a case in litigation concerning a 26 year old female who suffered from Type 1, Juvenile Diabetes for the majority of her lifetime. On or about 13-DEC-2011, the patient was admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of uncontrolled diabetes mellitus with ketoacidosis (DKA). The patient was treated with an insulin drip and met with a dietician while in the hospital. On 14-DEC-2011, while preparing for discharge, the patient was administered PNEUMOVAX23 and FLUZONE. The patient began experiencing shortness of breath on 18-DEC-2011 and was taken to hospital via ambulance. At the hospital the patient was diagnosed with pneumonia, acute respiratory failure and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA). The patient was orally intubated and mechanically ventilated. Shortly after admission, the patient went into acute respiratory distress and became septic. The patient fell into a coma for approximately one month. The patient was hospitalized for a total of two months and was discharged on or about 09-FEB-2012. The patient never fully recovered from this hospitalization and spent the remainder of her life in and out of hospitals. The patient passed away on 02-NOV-2013 as a result of pneumonia. The patient suffered pneumonia, sepsis, respiratory distress/failure, coma and death which were a direct and proximate result of PNEUMOVAX23 and FLUZONE vaccinations. Upon internal review, coma, sepsis, and diabetic ketoacidosis were determined to be medically significant events.

    Pregnant mother vaccinated for Chicken Pox. Baby gets chicken pox in-utero and born with chicken pox and dies.

    521578,02/03/2014,,,,,M,02/03/2014,"This spontaneous report was received from a consumer (mother) refers to a 7 weeks and 2 days old male patient. On an unknown date in November 1998 the patient's mother was vaccinated with varicella virus vaccine live (manufacturer unknown) dose 1. The child was exposed to the suspect vaccine in utero when the mother was 5.5 months pregnant. On an unspecified date in 1998 the patient developed chicken pox in utero and was born with chicken pox on an unspecified date. On an unknown date in 1999 the patient passed away due to affixation/sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (death), when he was 7 weeks and 2 days old. The outcome of affixation/SIDS was reported as fatal. The outcome of drug exposure in utero, born with chicken pox and developed chicken pox in utero was unknown. The reporter considered developed chicken pox in utero, affixation/SIDS and born with chicken pox to be related to varicella virus vaccine live (manufacturer unknown). This case is linked to case # 1401USA014406, # 1401USA014557 and case # 1401USA014599 via parent-child link. Additional information has been requested.",Y,,,,,,,,N,,,,,OTH,OTH,No other medications,Unknown,,,WAES1401USA014558

    Mar 16 4:14 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Bright Spots In The Week As The DOW Drops 318 On Friday

    [see my jan 28 update at the bottom of this blog referenced in my 1/28 stock talk]

    I didn't hear anything about today's steep market drop of Dow -318 points and S&P -38 until I got home from work. I looked things over and sort of analyzed what seemed to be significant to me. I happened to notice a couple sectors that did not go down.

    The month of December was a turning point for two areas of investment interest with a double top for one and a double bottom for the other.

    1. Interest rates completed a double top on Dec 31 and now appear to be trending lower;BOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No (^TNX)
    2. Gold completed a double bottom Dec 19 and now appears to be trending higher. Looks like the interest rate correction is over; at least it looks like it should be obvious now. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD)

    It looks like the interest rate correction is over, or in other words, it looks like rates have topped out for now.

    I had considered buying (NYSEARCA:TLT) when it hit $102 at the end of December, but did not act on it. It has now run from $102 to almost $108 having gained almost 6% in a little over three weeks from Dec 31 to Jan 24.

    With the article below announcing the obvious recent strong performance if Treasurys, you can look for profit taking in TLT to commence soon.

    Article: Treasurys surge as investors shed risk

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices surged Friday, closing out their second consecutive day of gains as investor fears over global economic growth triggered a rotation out of riskier assets like emerging markets and into haven securities like U.S. government debt.

    Treasurys surge as investors shed risk Ben Eisen. Jan. 24, 2014

    Any correction for TLT would probably only go down to $104 to $105. Probably will not see $102 again but $104 would be a good point to take a position.

    Rotation into Gold and PM miners is becoming apparent.

    With the overall market down a stiff 2% today (1/24/13) gold was steady in what appears to be an ascending triangle (look at hourly chart). Mining stocks were only down fractionally.

    Gold is firmly above its 50 day MA now.

    Daily Gold chart courtesy of StockCharts

    (click to enlarge)StockCharts gold

    China and Asia Down. Gold holding as a store of value.

    Article: Asian shares fall on weak China data, stronger yen. Asian shares soften on gloomy China manufacturing data, stronger yen

    finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-shares-fall...;_ylt=A2KLOzG_FuNSSxoAuJiTmYlQ

    It is somewhat of a disconnect to see China and emerging markets fall today while gold held up.

    If the thesis is that China and Asian buyers are supporting gold, it appears to be vindicated today with the Asian stocks falling while gold held up with no loss. The Asian investors DID NOT sell their gold.

    (GLD) was up $0.50 today.

    (NYSEARCA:GDX) Down only five cents today. (NYSEMKT:SAND) was actually up 0.11 today or 2%.

    GDX daily chart, one year with averages.

    The market action of gold is following the course that I discussed in my December 19 article which came out the same day that gold made its recent double bottom. "Gold Completing Bottom as Cyprus Decides not to Sell."

    seekingalpha.com/article/1907421-gold-co...-sell

    Another Sector that held up today:

    REITS and mREITS

    Notice December 30th was the turning point for interest rate sensitive investments. These REITs hardly noticed the Friday 1/24 318 Dow dive:

    (NASDAQ:AGNC) down .03 but is up 10% since Dec 30. Yield is 12.8%

    (NYSE:NLY) unchanged, up 8% since Dec 30. Yield is 11.8%

    (NYSE:IVR) down .07, up 8% since Dec 30. Yield is 13%

    (NYSEARCA:MORL) 2x leveraged down .22 or 1%, but up 18% since Dec. 3. Yield is 24%. Yes, that's a 24% ttm yield. Would double your return in less than 3 years.

    Turning point for Gold and interest rates - new short term trend.

    Gold [up] and interest rates [down] turned, between Dec 3 and Dec 30.

    I take this to be a new trend in which we will see gold continuing to rise maybe another $100 and interest rates continuing to ease or at least to not continue going up.

    For this reason, the REITs listed above should continue to do well.

    That's all for the moment. I have to get some coffee and read some comments.

    This is the content of two emails I sent to my brother discussing my take for the near term probability of gold's next move:

    Jan 28, 2013

    My take on GLD, HL, GDX, AXU

    Gold is getting ready to break out of bottom range. I look for gold (GLD) to correct sideways or horizontally without going down too much, staying mostly around 120. Then the mining stocks will have paused and given back a little. I think I will buy some GDX and SAND especially if they settle a little more. The Slow Stochastic for GLD is turning down a little; give it a little time - there may be a few days of slight decline - then the move. The basic technicals are all positive.

    I like using the 20, 50, 200 averages together on a Yahoo chart for GLD. RS and MACD are positive.

    I don't know why Avi can't see it.

    John

    When you look at HL and AXU again, keep in mind that they will have their rather sharp movements, but look at a chart of GLD and notice how it is much less volatile. They are fluctuating up and down more as GLD makes smaller movements. HL and AXU will have their up and downs as GLD corrects sideways/horizontally in a more gradual manner. This is one reason I think there has been a bottom, because gold's downward momentum is virtually gone. It is stealthily creeping up. GLD will find support at the 50 day MA and bounce from there at 119 to 120, and then from there, the bigger move will take place.

    I am thinking there will be a few days of sideways to slightly down. I would be looking hard at things [to consider buying] if GLD gets to $119. Draw a Yahoo chart with 20, 50, and 200 averages. I like the cross-over of the 20 over the 50.

    Direct Link back to

    Interesting Times for All Commodities blog:

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-inter...?source=kizur_seekingalpha

    Disclosure: I am long GDX, AGNC, IVR, MORL.

    Jan 24 10:52 PM | Link | 12 Comments
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