Comments on Jon Bernstein's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/jon-bernstein/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/88231-searching-for-the-best-bond-etf?source=feed#comment-221290 221290 Sat, 02 Aug 2008 22:20:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88231-searching-for-the-best-bond-etf?source=feed#comment-219687 219687 Thu, 31 Jul 2008 17:33:08 -0400
inflation, of course, is a more than valid concern re return – but assuming inflation will remain a problem forever is like assuming the stock market will rise or fall forever also

in a deflationary environment, which I believe is more an issue than most people do I think, these type funds of these type interest paying treasuries have been and would be in demand

the belief in perpetual inflation is useful for someone wanting or trying to create monetary dilution, keeping everyone focussed on spending and accepting inflation as normal

at my age, and thus for all practical purposes, this may be true :-) however, I tend to believe that deflation alternates w/inflation in our current fiat environment (and may well have under the various gold standards, I’m not sure)

thus, re the treasuries value, I think, like most everything else, they’ll vary over time

and gold is great, literally; but I tend to prefer it for insurance at this point, over any increase in value; the insurance being storage of value

and toilet paper (as per the commentator above), well, I try not to be out of it :-)

info re international treasury etf's would be interesting, esp if they were for countries w/as close a risk base to that of the u.s. as could be found
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88231-searching-for-the-best-bond-etf?source=feed#comment-219652 219652 Thu, 31 Jul 2008 16:48:39 -0400
Also, where are the international treasury & international treasury inflation-linked ETFs?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88231-searching-for-the-best-bond-etf?source=feed#comment-219368 219368 Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:47:20 -0400
Or, say, the goods and services you typically buy - rent, food, fuel, electricity, water, clothing, etc. The bond market is obsessed with the "quality" of Treasuries - the certainty, as you point out, that there is no default risk. So what? If you hold an Argentine bond and the Kirchners default on it, how much bread can you buy with the total coupon + principal payments you received? If you hold a Treasury bond paying 4% while prices are rising 12%, how much bread can you buy with that? What if that 12% becomes 20%? That's all that matters: purchasing power. The certainty that you'll get your $1000 back 30 years from now is irrelevant. What will it be worth?

The market has forced real interest rates on even very long-duration debt deeply into negative territory. It's hard to imagine being sufficiently bearish on the world economy that one would be willing to eat 7% a year in lost coupon purchasing power and the substantial risk of capital loss just to avoid finding something better to do with the money. Buying toilet paper would be a better choice; you'll always need it and it isn't getting cheaper.

Long PST and TBT. Long gold. Other short Treasury positions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86733-searching-for-the-best-biotech-etf?source=feed#comment-213373 213373 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:23:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86733-searching-for-the-best-biotech-etf?source=feed#comment-213188 213188 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:36:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86733-searching-for-the-best-biotech-etf?source=feed#comment-213185 213185 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 09:35:04 -0400