Another company that looks to profit from biosimilars is Novartis. Their generic unit Sandoz already has a few biosimilars available in Europe and they are looking to expand as well.
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
-Your second point I agree with, I even say in my article that manufacturing a generic will be difficult so I'm not sure what we disagree about. If you think a generic is impossible then we disagree. To say a drug that has been around for 60 years can't be duplicated is a bit of a reach. -Your third point, I don't really care if my reputation took a hit. Nothing in my article is incorrect factually. -Orphan drug prices. I'm well aware of what orphan drugs cost, thats why I didn't bring it up, I have no problem with the price they charge for Acthar. When I brought up the large margins I meant that in a positive note. -Lastly my opinion was based on research. My opinion is that a decade ago Acthar had basically a few million in sales and no generic company cared about it. Now Questcor has a drug that could approach a billion in sales in a few years if growth continues and that generic companies will start to take notice. It is a fact that that Questcor has no pipeline what so ever and it is a fact that they rely 100% on Acthar for their revenues, so if a generic does get approved Questcor would take a hit. I'm just urging people to be cautious and to take this into consideration. I don't see why this is causing such uproar.
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
Ouch you guys are really passionate about Questcor. I'll address a few things you guys have said and try to explain what I was trying to say -I agree the article title was a bit sensationalist I appologize -I also agree my writing can be disorganized, I just do this for a hobby -pharmaman I agree with you that many biotech companies only have one drug in their pipeline but those biotech companies also have patent protection -Drdon I never said I was a Questcor expert, you say I am rehashing the Citron report. The Citron report said Questcor was partaking in questionable marketing and a generic could be produced rather easily. I said neither of these so I'm not sure where you are coming from. -All I was trying to say with this article is that as Questcor continues to grow its sales it becomes more likely that a company might attempt to manufacture a generic, however I think it will be very hard and expensive to do this. -I think you all can agree that if a generic is approved it would be devastating to Questcors stock price -If no one ever comes out with a generic you will all make a lot of money
This is what I wrote a few months ago about ABT-450 in another article.
Hepatitis C has become a hot disease state in the last few years for drug manufactures. With a projected market of 12 billion by 2015, many pharma companies are coming out with their own treatments to capture a piece of the pie. This means ABT-450 will be entering a crowded and competitive market place. What makes ABT-450 special is that it is taken orally while many of the new Hepatitis C drugs are given as injectables. This will lead to ease of administration for patients and possibly decreased manufacturing costs for AbbVie.
So far ABT-450 has completed 2 small phase II trials. The first trial, called Co-Pilot, treated 50 patients with a cocktail of medications that included ABT-450. Cure rates were over 90% for patients with no previous treatment and cure rates approached 50% for patients that had failed previous treatments. Although no serious side effects were reported, this was an extremely small trial so it is difficult to determine how ABT-450 will be tolerated in the long run. The second study was even smaller, testing only 11 patients that had not been treated before. These patients had a specific type of Hepatitis C that responds well to Interferon. Once again ABT-450 was given as a cocktail and 10 of the 11 patients were cured. If phase III trials are successful, a cocktail including ABT-450 could be on the market by 2014. What percentage of the 12 billion dollar Hepatitis C market ABT-450 will capture it difficult to estimate. However given that ABT-450 is given orally and Abbott has a couple other Hepatitis C compounds in its pipeline that could be included in part of a cocktail, sales approaching a billion are certainly achievable.
Since I wrote that article Abbvie has started phase III trials. Like I mentioned above there will be lots of competition but since ABT-450 is orally taken it will set it apart from the competition. Here are some links for trials that are ongoing or starting soon. The second one I have listed is a phase III trial. I hope that answered your question. 1. http://1.usa.gov/VKMT2W 2. http://1.usa.gov/Yzgy3A 3. http://1.usa.gov/VKMRbi 4. http://1.usa.gov/YzgAsl
Basically everything Pharmaguy said. The only things I would add is that when an oral compound goes generic its fairly easy for a large number of manufactures to produce a generic which obviously drives the price down a lot. Biologics are extremely complex to manufacture so you are going to have fewer competitors. Also these companies are going to have to prove their version of the drug is effective, so they will have to conduct trials of their own which are expensive and generic manufactures don't have much experience in. This is why I think even when Humira loses its patent you won't see its price completely collapse.
Pfizer: 2012 Review And 2013 Outlook [View article]
Pfizer didn't lose patent protection on Enbrel or Lyrica. Enbrel was a marketing agreement with Amgen that ended, and Lyrica's patent doesn't end until 2018.
It's Time To Be Optimistic About AstraZeneca [View article]
2 things to consider before investing in AZN 1. Peak sales of 12 billion for Bydureon seems out of reach considering the market leader Victoza only had 700 million in sales 2. Also Victoza is still capturing 60% of the new scripts while Bydureon is getting a little less than 40%
Jim Cramer Pumps Alkermes - Is He Right? [View article]
Marmadukemark, You are correct, thanks for the correction. When I first looked up Vivitrol I wrote down Naloxone instead of Naltrexone and went from there. I will edit the article, thanks for the catch.
Regarding Abbott's claim of having greater than 20 compounds in Phase II or Phase III, you are correct they don't have nearly that many novel compounds. All drug companies do this and it is frustrating. As far as Abbott's pipeline it is really tilted towards Phase 1 and II development, which makes it really difficult to determine how much potential they have. It will be interesting to see what AbbVie P/E will be when it becomes a standalone company.
Poortorich, Regarding bardoxolone's GFR I did link some letters to the editor in the NEJM that discusses this. In case you didn't see it here is the link again, http://bit.ly/LMYH1m. As you said if it can be shown to delay and/or prevent people going on dialysis it will be a big seller. Everything pretty much hinges on the phase III trial.
Regarding Bardoxolone I think you are right that it isn't another Humira, but not many companies have a Humira in their pipelines. There is no magic bullet to replace Humira, AbbVie is going to have to multiple successful new compounds. About future competition, I think this is a good thing as it signifies that other companies see a large market to profit from. Look how many ACE inhibitors and ARB's are on the market, that hasn't stopped Novartis from raking in Billions in sales with Diovan.
Your concerns about Elotuzumab are warranted. While I agree that it probably won't become a first line agent, it could still generate significant sales if phase III data is positive. Oncologist's love to have as many tools as possible so there will most likely be a place for Elotuzumab.
Of the compounds in development you mentioned I really like GLPG0634, it has potential to have less side effects then Tofacitinib and is only taken once a day compared to twice daily for Tofacitinib. Of course Tofacitinib will have the advantage of being on the market first.
If I were to guess what AbbVie will look like in 2018. I would say Humira would still have 15-20 percent market share. If Bardoxolone has good phase III data it would have blockbuster like sales. And I think 2 or 3 of the compounds I listed above will have sales in the hundreds of millions, approaching a billion. The thing about AbbVie is that their pipeline is so loaded toward Phase I and II trails so it makes it difficult to project how much potential they have.
If Bardoxolone actually increases kidney function like the phase II trail indicated then the benefits absolutely outweigh the risks. Hypomagnesemia is just low magnesium levels, which might be the cause of the spasms. GFR stands for Glomerular filtration rate and it is a tool physicians use to estimate kidney function.
A Detailed Look At Abbvie [View article]
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
So are you saying it is impossible for a generic version of Acthar to be produced?
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
-Your third point, I don't really care if my reputation took a hit. Nothing in my article is incorrect factually.
-Orphan drug prices. I'm well aware of what orphan drugs cost, thats why I didn't bring it up, I have no problem with the price they charge for Acthar. When I brought up the large margins I meant that in a positive note.
-Lastly my opinion was based on research. My opinion is that a decade ago Acthar had basically a few million in sales and no generic company cared about it. Now Questcor has a drug that could approach a billion in sales in a few years if growth continues and that generic companies will start to take notice. It is a fact that that Questcor has no pipeline what so ever and it is a fact that they rely 100% on Acthar for their revenues, so if a generic does get approved Questcor would take a hit. I'm just urging people to be cautious and to take this into consideration. I don't see why this is causing such uproar.
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
-I agree the article title was a bit sensationalist I appologize
-I also agree my writing can be disorganized, I just do this for a hobby
-pharmaman I agree with you that many biotech companies only have one drug in their pipeline but those biotech companies also have patent protection
-Drdon I never said I was a Questcor expert, you say I am rehashing the Citron report. The Citron report said Questcor was partaking in questionable marketing and a generic could be produced rather easily. I said neither of these so I'm not sure where you are coming from.
-All I was trying to say with this article is that as Questcor continues to grow its sales it becomes more likely that a company might attempt to manufacture a generic, however I think it will be very hard and expensive to do this.
-I think you all can agree that if a generic is approved it would be devastating to Questcors stock price
-If no one ever comes out with a generic you will all make a lot of money
A Detailed Look At Abbvie [View article]
This is what I wrote a few months ago about ABT-450 in another article.
Hepatitis C has become a hot disease state in the last few years for drug manufactures. With a projected market of 12 billion by 2015, many pharma companies are coming out with their own treatments to capture a piece of the pie. This means ABT-450 will be entering a crowded and competitive market place. What makes ABT-450 special is that it is taken orally while many of the new Hepatitis C drugs are given as injectables. This will lead to ease of administration for patients and possibly decreased manufacturing costs for AbbVie.
So far ABT-450 has completed 2 small phase II trials. The first trial, called Co-Pilot, treated 50 patients with a cocktail of medications that included ABT-450. Cure rates were over 90% for patients with no previous treatment and cure rates approached 50% for patients that had failed previous treatments. Although no serious side effects were reported, this was an extremely small trial so it is difficult to determine how ABT-450 will be tolerated in the long run. The second study was even smaller, testing only 11 patients that had not been treated before. These patients had a specific type of Hepatitis C that responds well to Interferon. Once again ABT-450 was given as a cocktail and 10 of the 11 patients were cured. If phase III trials are successful, a cocktail including ABT-450 could be on the market by 2014. What percentage of the 12 billion dollar Hepatitis C market ABT-450 will capture it difficult to estimate. However given that ABT-450 is given orally and Abbott has a couple other Hepatitis C compounds in its pipeline that could be included in part of a cocktail, sales approaching a billion are certainly achievable.
Since I wrote that article Abbvie has started phase III trials. Like I mentioned above there will be lots of competition but since ABT-450 is orally taken it will set it apart from the competition. Here are some links for trials that are ongoing or starting soon. The second one I have listed is a phase III trial. I hope that answered your question.
1. http://1.usa.gov/VKMT2W
2. http://1.usa.gov/Yzgy3A
3. http://1.usa.gov/VKMRbi
4. http://1.usa.gov/YzgAsl
A Detailed Look At Abbvie [View article]
Pfizer: 2012 Review And 2013 Outlook [View article]
It's Time To Be Optimistic About AstraZeneca [View article]
1. Peak sales of 12 billion for Bydureon seems out of reach considering the market leader Victoza only had 700 million in sales
2. Also Victoza is still capturing 60% of the new scripts while Bydureon is getting a little less than 40%
Jim Cramer Pumps Alkermes - Is He Right? [View article]
You are correct, thanks for the correction. When I first looked up Vivitrol I wrote down Naloxone instead of Naltrexone and went from there. I will edit the article, thanks for the catch.
AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
Regarding Abbott's claim of having greater than 20 compounds in Phase II or Phase III, you are correct they don't have nearly that many novel compounds. All drug companies do this and it is frustrating. As far as Abbott's pipeline it is really tilted towards Phase 1 and II development, which makes it really difficult to determine how much potential they have. It will be interesting to see what AbbVie P/E will be when it becomes a standalone company.
AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
Regarding bardoxolone's GFR I did link some letters to the editor in the NEJM that discusses this. In case you didn't see it here is the link again, http://bit.ly/LMYH1m. As you said if it can be shown to delay and/or prevent people going on dialysis it will be a big seller. Everything pretty much hinges on the phase III trial.
AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
Regarding Bardoxolone I think you are right that it isn't another Humira, but not many companies have a Humira in their pipelines. There is no magic bullet to replace Humira, AbbVie is going to have to multiple successful new compounds. About future competition, I think this is a good thing as it signifies that other companies see a large market to profit from. Look how many ACE inhibitors and ARB's are on the market, that hasn't stopped Novartis from raking in Billions in sales with Diovan.
Your concerns about Elotuzumab are warranted. While I agree that it probably won't become a first line agent, it could still generate significant sales if phase III data is positive. Oncologist's love to have as many tools as possible so there will most likely be a place for Elotuzumab.
Of the compounds in development you mentioned I really like GLPG0634, it has potential to have less side effects then Tofacitinib and is only taken once a day compared to twice daily for Tofacitinib. Of course Tofacitinib will have the advantage of being on the market first.
If I were to guess what AbbVie will look like in 2018. I would say Humira would still have 15-20 percent market share. If Bardoxolone has good phase III data it would have blockbuster like sales. And I think 2 or 3 of the compounds I listed above will have sales in the hundreds of millions, approaching a billion. The thing about AbbVie is that their pipeline is so loaded toward Phase I and II trails so it makes it difficult to project how much potential they have.
AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
Thanks for the kind comments! I'm glad you found the article(s) helpful.
AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
If Bardoxolone actually increases kidney function like the phase II trail indicated then the benefits absolutely outweigh the risks. Hypomagnesemia is just low magnesium levels, which might be the cause of the spasms. GFR stands for Glomerular filtration rate and it is a tool physicians use to estimate kidney function.