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Jon Crowley

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  • AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]

    Regarding Abbott's claim of having greater than 20 compounds in Phase II or Phase III, you are correct they don't have nearly that many novel compounds. All drug companies do this and it is frustrating. As far as Abbott's pipeline it is really tilted towards Phase 1 and II development, which makes it really difficult to determine how much potential they have. It will be interesting to see what AbbVie P/E will be when it becomes a standalone company.
    Jul 3 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
    Regarding bardoxolone's GFR I did link some letters to the editor in the NEJM that discusses this. In case you didn't see it here is the link again, As you said if it can be shown to delay and/or prevent people going on dialysis it will be a big seller. Everything pretty much hinges on the phase III trial.
    Jul 3 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]

    Regarding Bardoxolone I think you are right that it isn't another Humira, but not many companies have a Humira in their pipelines. There is no magic bullet to replace Humira, AbbVie is going to have to multiple successful new compounds. About future competition, I think this is a good thing as it signifies that other companies see a large market to profit from. Look how many ACE inhibitors and ARB's are on the market, that hasn't stopped Novartis from raking in Billions in sales with Diovan.

    Your concerns about Elotuzumab are warranted. While I agree that it probably won't become a first line agent, it could still generate significant sales if phase III data is positive. Oncologist's love to have as many tools as possible so there will most likely be a place for Elotuzumab.

    Of the compounds in development you mentioned I really like GLPG0634, it has potential to have less side effects then Tofacitinib and is only taken once a day compared to twice daily for Tofacitinib. Of course Tofacitinib will have the advantage of being on the market first.

    If I were to guess what AbbVie will look like in 2018. I would say Humira would still have 15-20 percent market share. If Bardoxolone has good phase III data it would have blockbuster like sales. And I think 2 or 3 of the compounds I listed above will have sales in the hundreds of millions, approaching a billion. The thing about AbbVie is that their pipeline is so loaded toward Phase I and II trails so it makes it difficult to project how much potential they have.
    Jun 18 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
    richjoy and berninvestor,

    Thanks for the kind comments! I'm glad you found the article(s) helpful.
    Jun 15 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]
    Thanks I hope they are informative for you.
    Jun 15 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie Beyond Humira [View article]

    If Bardoxolone actually increases kidney function like the phase II trail indicated then the benefits absolutely outweigh the risks. Hypomagnesemia is just low magnesium levels, which might be the cause of the spasms. GFR stands for Glomerular filtration rate and it is a tool physicians use to estimate kidney function.
    Jun 15 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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