Seeking Alpha

Jon Haghayeghi

View as an RSS Feed
View Jon Haghayeghi's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • eBay: Our Little Auction Site Is Growing Up [View article]
    Bruce, your argument works against you. "Bill me later" is an option for people with inadequate funds who need to pay for something. Paypal charges less than other merchants, which is why it is also so appealing to the mass consumer. Don't forget about the mobile wallet that draws right from your checking account for free. - JH
    Feb 4 09:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May': A Data Analytics Perspective [View article]
    Great stats.
    May 21 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Art Of Trading Volatility [View article]
    This is a great article. I am not sure if a agree with holding VXX or UVXY with the spot VIX at 18, but great perspective nonetheless.
    Mar 7 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    Pay close attention to the trade I modeled. I am short VXX and long XIV, a little bit different.

    Great comment, shorting VXX is great as long as the short term VIX futures are in contango.

    Cheers.
    Feb 27 04:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Risk: It's Better To Be Safe Than Sorry [View article]
    Nope
    Jun 5 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Outlook For Of Brazil's Currency, Stock Market, And Economy Based On Sentiment Analysis Of Global Information Flow [View article]
    Brazil Equities are down 3% today. Amazing article.
    May 31 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Risk: It's Better To Be Safe Than Sorry [View article]
    You can always sell stocks if you don't want to think about implied volatility and options. Some people use levered inverse ETFs on the index; it just depends on your portfolio and tastes.
    May 30 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May': A Data Analytics Perspective [View article]
    Thank you Jack, that is a great question. Do prices move information or does information move prices? I will write on the index soon.
    May 22 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insure Your Portfolio While It's Cheap, Another Pullback Could Be Ugly And Deep [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, cwelsh.

    You are correct that the margin impact is going to be $12,500 on an reg T margin account. Whether this is too much is a matter of preference since the trade can easily produce $12,500+ in a down market.

    Now that we have rallied, the hedge only cost a few hundred dollars plus the time value of posting margin. If you would have bought a put option during this same period it definitely would have cost you much more than a couple hundred dollars.

    Also, this trade also did not implode by 70%. According to your $3.50 assumption for a closing fill, the hedge would take a loss of 2.8% of the total $12,500 posted ($350). If you had cash that set aside for a rainy day, this was a perfect way to weather uncertainty.
    May 3 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    The margin consideration is valid, but its highly improbable that the VXX will go up 1500% when the VIX is well above its mean .

    The reason I did not advocate the purchase of put options is because they are inherently risky. Selling a call-spread on VXX would be better than buying a put option. Sellers are winners.

    It is beneficial to short VXX when the VIX futures curve approaches backwardation (during a spike). I am aware contango benefits the position.

    I am glad you misread the trade.
    Mar 8 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    Arshok, thanks for the feedback.

    1) Yes, this trade would require margin in the event of another meltdown, but, nonetheless, is still is highly profitable when the VIX drops.

    2) The reason you enter when the VIX is at a high level is so that there is less (or no) contango in the futures curve at the moment you enter the position.

    3) Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) or doubling down is never a safe way to invest.

    4) If you entered the trade on June 1, 2012 as you stated, the trade would be up over 100% as of now. This is because VXX would have been shorted from $90 down to $20 and XIV would have been held long from June 1 at $8 to its current value of $21, so you make money on both sides.
    Mar 7 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    Thank you Toby, you did a better job clarifying Andrew's question. You are not missing anything.

    When the spot VIX rises, usually the futures curve flattens out or is in backwardation, hence time to take advantage of position.

    With regard to margin and the broker, VXX is typically more effective to short, but harder to find than shares of XIV, particularly if the spot VIX is too high. If you could not find shares of VXX to short, you are correct, you can just buy XIV. Cheers.
    Feb 28 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    Andrew, the point of the trade is to take advantage of the inefficiency of each ETN for reasons you point out. What makes the notion of this trade market neutral is the fact that you never enter a position until it is advantageous (VIX above 25). You are correct, you are effectively 100% short the VIX, but the return of the structure over time does not reflect a "short VIX" position.

    You are correct, XIV is correlated with the S&P500 and VXX is inversely correlated as well, but all I am trying to point out is that you can use these two instruments together to make more money than you would otherwise make trading the index. Thank you for the insight.
    .
    Feb 27 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    I completely understand what you are saying, but if you were to just play XIV, you are just long an inefficient ETN. Although borrowing costs can be high, by shorting VXX, you take advantage of its depreciation.

    It is logically confusing, but a great way to produce an upward trending payoff with less volatility than holding either ETN individually.
    Feb 27 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading VXX And XIV Against Each Other: Taking Advantage Of Quasi-Correlated VIX ETNs [View article]
    I did not notice that, the payoff profile in the chart is long XIV 16 shares and short VXX. Thank you, I will have it edited.
    Feb 27 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
29 Comments
5 Likes