Jon Peter

Long/short equity, etf investing, contrarian, momentum
Jon Peter
Long/short equity, ETF investing, contrarian, momentum
Contributor since: 2012
I drew a similar chart and concluded that 1150+ ish was the near term top before a consolidation of some sort pointing to lower prices from here. Fridays action was surprising and perhaps was that last burst before it rests or heads back down.
All in the context of being in the digital age and its possible affect on investor behavior (behavioral finance,etc).
RBS had a similar warning just before the late 2008 meltdown.
June 2008:
http://tinyurl.com/3n7vg9
Same economist (now with Nomura) predicted a 20 to 25% drop in late November:
http://tinyurl.com/j52...
We are now in the midst of a huge currency war now. China will respond now to Japan's move. Volatility in the markets will be the norm.
The link to that Josh Brown piece was terrific. Made my Sunday.
http://bit.ly/1PekejY
You can optimize portfolio for either max sharpe or min risk at portfoliovisulaizer:
http://tinyurl.com/jyh...
On different VIX trading strategies:
The blog portion of this website (link below) keeps track of many various VIX strategies out there. Some I've heard of, some not. You can also click on the strategy link to get a description, etc.
http://bit.ly/1nB8VYT
They seem to have a great strategy with this ETF. My only knock is the pricey expense ratio.
These WisdomTree products have attractive (much lower) expense ratios than other competing Long/Short or bearish products.
This is bad advice....Backwardation is still in the term structure. The market is all about oil's death spiral now.
Now do the average return from 1990 to 1999. You get over 18% per year.
"If you torture the data enough, nature will always confess."
-Economist Ronald Coase
Our market is now parroting the actions of the amateurs in charge over in China. We had better hope that the market over there stabilizes tonight or we are in for more pain. At least the oil rout subsided today.
I don't have 90 years left.
Things are never as bad as they seem and never as good. W bottom.
Do the zombies like gold? Should I have some physical when they come knocking on my door?
;-)
Thanks for the article Bill and Happy New Year.
Here's a long term perspective. Looks like it could base & take a breather around 900 then down finally to about 750. But who knows - it's the most difficult of all investments to predict because of its many unusual nuances.
http://bit.ly/dtoj8O
Bullish articles in a long slow down trend tell me that the longs have not been washed out. Look out below.
I think Curry went to Davidson?
This was a terrific read. The KISS method can work by being able to see the forest thru the trees and to be ready with a plan.
The tell in the coming days/weeks is oil. Oil starts tanking again the market and investors will lose patience fast.
Tack & RS__So what would be the catalyst for an early 2016 correction? Markets always need a big worry to correct and a catalyst to light the fuse for downward prices. Oil continues its collapse? An Energy company and high yield debt finally explode? Catastrophic Holiday sales numbers? Other?
Gary - but doesn't the shorter look backs outperform in the digital age??? Momentum is a component of investor psychology as you pointed out and with the immediacy of quotes and investing information (versus many decades ago) it seems to me the shorter lookbacks may have some merit post 2000 or so.
http://bit.ly/18GiLhi
The 50 day moving average is about to rise over the 200 day moving average. This is viewed as very bullish. On the ETFs that track the S&P 500 this already happened last week.
http://schrts.co/UFRKnH
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year
Gold still made a lower low last week. Also, dollar will get stronger with higher rates and provide a headwind for gold.
http://bit.ly/1m1lXyp
Thanks Jeff as always. Technically a "golden cross" could be almost upon us.
http://bit.ly/1Ta8bUv
Still trying to figure out why EFG outperforms in almost every time frame. The newer EFAV suggested by 'Steve in TN' trumps both EFA and EFG.
Nice concise article with a big picture top down approach. Diversification is one of the few "free lunches" available.
I hope it was mostly the quad witching expiration. After all the carnage as the Protagonist pointed we are still in contango. Annual tax loss selling no doubt was a factor too. Oil moved a bit lower but I think the worst is over so now maybe a Santa rally?
Nathan, I usually enjoy most of your articles, didn't mean to be so blunt. I still think the title was a bit misleading, as I saw the headline in my email SA alerts and thought the worst for these sort of funds. BTW, here is a Direxion press release on the matter:
http://tinyurl.com/nsc...