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Jonathan Fishman

 
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  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Now this is confirmed news! Stay tuned as I continue to cover this new chapter in Apple's life.
    Sep 9 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Mobile Payments: Part II [View article]
    Hi msapp,

    We could also see an Android payment system Vs. an iOS payment system. I highly doubt that Apple will cooperate with MCX and allow a Current-C app on the app store.

    I agree the customers are going to decide on this and it is going to be a war, but I do think that it will be very hard to a retailer to refuse to cooperate with Apple. Tapping into 800M iTunes accounts (think advertising) is not something to pass on.

    I highly doubt it that if given the opportunity, Best Buy will refuse to capitalize on the opportunity to advertise to every iPhone user that steps in one of their shops.

    I don't see why a retailer wouldn't work with both MCX and Apple (like accepting multiple credit card brands).

    Cheers,

    JF
    Sep 5 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    I think relevance is a key for that (I wrote about how Apple is planning to use iBeacons to enable in-store marketing, the link is in the top of the article).

    I think that a simple push-notification will work for these ads. Making it not annoying is also a key. I doubt that we will ever see something flashy and annoying coming out of Cupertino.

    I was thinking of a simple push-notification. It could also work just when you hold your phone in your hand (possible do to the M7 co-processor).

    You made some good points!
    I hope that after the event (if iPay is actually announced), we will all know exactly how is it going to work.

    Cheers,
    Jonathan
    Sep 2 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    I don't see ads as a bad thing per se. It's all a matter of relevance in my view.

    I'll hate an ad offering me 20% off a watch, if it pops out when I'm browsing on Facebook.

    I'd really appreciate that ad if I'm standing in a watch shop, looking for a new watch.

    So, if the ecosystem I'd describe will make ads a lot more relevant for me as a consumer, I'm all for it.

    Just my 2 cents,

    Jonathan
    Sep 2 06:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    donalto,

    I did used 5%, sorry for the typo. I already submitted a fix for that.

    Just in case I'll further elaborate. I believe the ads will enjoy a much higher click-through rate (5%) than FB ads. That is because I assume customers will be a lot more encouraged to click on an offer ad, for let's say a shampoo when they are standing in the aisle, shopping for their shampoo than when they are just browsing their news feed on Facebook.

    There are reasons I think I'm conservative in my estimates for advertising revenues as I wrote in the article. For example, Crone research estimates $300/user per year, a figure which is more than x12 times my estimates.

    Hope I cleared my assumption there for you.

    Again, thanks for catching that, and sorry for that typo.

    Many thanks,

    Jonathan
    Sep 2 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Thanks you RSA for your kind words,

    I find your research awesome as well!

    Cheers,

    JF
    Sep 2 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Thank you for reading. All we have to do now is sit back and wait for September 9.
    Sep 2 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Thanks!

    I agree 100% with what you said.

    Cheers,

    JF
    Sep 2 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Hi patience,


    Thanks for reading, I'm a 'heavy' PayPal user myself. I will definitely prefer use one e-paying commerce for everything. Given that my cc is already linked to my iTunes, I will be delighted to leave PayPal and consolidate to one service.
    Cheers,
    JF
    Sep 2 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Hi Prome,

    Neither I or anyone else on the plant can say with 100% certainty, where AAPL stock (or any other stock) will go a week from now.

    What we can do, is estimate the value of the business (and its future value) and wait for the price to catch up.

    Check out: http://bit.ly/1dx52ZG

    Cheers,

    JF
    Sep 2 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Hi notremos,

    Thanks for reading and commenting!

    As I said I believe the team in Cupertino might think of additional ways to monetize the ecosystem.
    I believe there is a huge opprotunity in small businesses.
    Cheers,
    JF
    Sep 2 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Thanks Joseph!

    Looking forward to Sep 9
    Sep 2 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    Thank you for reading, I don't currently have a published PT on Apple, but I can say I'm more bullish than the analyst consensus.
    Cheers,
    JF
    Sep 2 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing The Potential Benefit Of An Apple Payment Ecosystem [View article]
    There isn't a lock made by a human, that can't be breached by another human.

    That said:
    I think that an Apple payment ecosystem will come with increasing security on any payment-related data on Apple servers. I don't see why it shouldn't be as safe as Visa and MasterCard's data.
    Sep 2 10:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xiaomi: Copied Apple's DNA? [View article]
    Hi k1smet,

    Sorry for the late reply. I never use my own consumer preferences to estimate a certain product demand, it is a risky practice for an investor.

    Who wants Xiaomi smartphones? Not me, obviously not you, but apparently there are 60M other individuals who will purchase one this year (based on current sales rate).

    I don't drink Coca-Cola at all, it still doesn't mean demand for Coca-Cola is not robust. Making inductions based on my own preferences will greatly limit my ability to find good investments.

    The simple proposal I make here, is that if Xiaomi have reached 60M annual unit sales, they offer SOME value proposition that appeals to the consumer, which might indicate their smartphones are worth SOMETHING.

    It might won't be enough for you and I, as we like our iPhones, our Apple user-interface and the fact we use 'the real deal' (in our own perception), but it just might be more than enough for the majority of the market.

    To conclude, penetrating to Europe or North America might make this value proposition available to the above 'majority of the market', and that could poise a threat to Apple pricing strategy and market share.

    I believe Apple has plenty of resources to deal with this threat to eliminate it, and I too believe that Apple will prevail. One of the goals of my articles is to communicate that no matter who you are (even the biggest company in the S&P), never underestimate an eager 'Rolex forger'.
    Cheers,
    JF
    Aug 31 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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