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Jonathan Liss

 
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  • This Well Known ETF Is Beating The Market [View article]
    While the P/E on the QQQ is slightly above that of the SPX, the current earnings growth is nearly double. And the historical average P/E of the Nasdaq 100 is closer to 18 than 15. So to my mind, QQQ is a better way to allocate right now than SPY.

    Disclosure: Long QQQ
    Sep 12 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revamping Your Bond Portfolio With A Simple Momentum Strategy [View article]
    While your sentiments make sense, the problem with avoiding T-bonds entirely is that you could end up in a repeat of 2008 where T-bonds are the only safe asset class and high yield bonds get crushed during a massive sell-off, as occurred in H2 2008 and highlighted here by the author. I find it's best to stay asset class agnostic in momentum strategies and bonds are no exception. When the secular bear market in Treasuries begins, this strategy will have you soundly in high yield corporates.

    Ploutos, I'd be curious to see how this strategy works with a fund like LQD for those investors that are too risk averse for non-investment grade corporates.

    Thanks for a great piece!
    Aug 31 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor Man's Program Trading: One Year Later [View article]
    That makes a lot of sense. Thanks!
    Aug 6 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poor Man's Program Trading: One Year Later [View article]
    What were trading costs here? How about taxes owed on short-term gains? Without those two items, it's impossible to measure your true returns vs. a buy and hold strategy here.
    Aug 6 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Easiest Way To Capture Upside In China And South Korea [View article]
    That's what makes the ETF route such a compelling way to play these 2 countries
    Jun 28 05:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Lower Risk Stocks Outperform? [View article]
    Ploutos,

    Fascinating stuff, as usual. How do these findings interact (if at all) with the small-value performance premium in your view?

    In terms of Beta, what this may suggest is that beta has been largely misconstrued in its ability to explain long-term returns, not that beta (in a reversal of what has previously been assumed by CAPM) can now be used to gain a performance premium in the reverse (as you point out, "Second, the author's backtested results that show that actual realized returns from lower volatility stocks can not necessarily be inferred to portend higher future expected returns for this strategy.") Perhaps Beta is not the clear-cut risk factor it was once imagined to be and so investors don't receive a premium for holding it at increased levels.
    May 17 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Nasdaq-100 Water Down Its Apple Juice? [View article]
    I think the rebalance makes perfect sense. People wanting more Apple exposure should buy... AAPL. People buying an index usually want broad, diversified exposure. Having one stock equal 20% is the opposite of that.
    Apr 25 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Apple Bubble Popping? [View article]
    "Although I agree that Amazon's P/E ratio is a bit much and that the company is not undervalued, I do not think it is overvalued either."

    AMZN's forward PE is 74, yet you feel it's not 'overvalued'.

    Apple's forward PE is 10.95, yet you feel it's in a bubble.

    The forward PE of the Nasdaq 100 is currently 12.2.

    Please explain the discrepancy in your logic here?

    FYI, I am neither long or short Apple so I have no skin in this game. I am just trying to understand such seemingly contradictory statements from the perspective of pure logic.
    Apr 24 03:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's A Place For Bond ETFs With A Defined Maturity [View article]
    Yep, big fan of the BulletShares too - I own BSCH and BSJF for the exact reasons you mention. Thanks for this excellent, timely article!
    Mar 24 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Pharmaceuticals Set For A Run? [View article]
    Can you please send a screencap to contact-editorial @ seekingalpha.com . The charts/graphs look fine on my end here. Also, please include which browser you're using as well as OS. Thanks!
    Mar 13 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Market Bonds Not Worth The Risk; Watch The Spreads [View article]
    Why pull the data from a 3rd party and not the issuer directly?
    Mar 12 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Emerging Market Bond Trade Is Getting Very Crowded [View article]
    Nice piece Larry. Couple of crucial points you failed to address though imho. You don't discuss the underlying fundamentals of EM sovereign debt at all except to point out that those issuing it are in a seemingly much better monetary and fiscal position than the developed world. With U.S. Treasury yields at all-time lows and European sovereign debt's highly uncertain future due to the situation in the EU, where do you expect investors will turn? Also, the risk/reward of EMB has been much better than HYG so this asset class seems like a reasonable alternative to corporate high yield debt as well. So beyond corporate investment grade U.S. debt, EM debt may actually offer the best risk/reward on a forward basis for investors interested in having real diversification in their bond portfolios - and not owning a single, albeit seemingly 'safe' asset class.

    The points you raise about this market being overcrowded are fair enough - they're a perfectly reasonable reminder why not to overweight this asset class. However, ignoring it completely seems like an uncompensated, idiosyncratic risk to me.
    Mar 8 08:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up The Big Gold Short [View article]
    I don;'t disagree - anyone who claims any asset class can't fall 50 or 60% in a fairly short period is being willfully ignorant. That was my gripe. Saying $1300 gold is 'impossible'. That's a very dangerous attitude to have.
    Mar 1 02:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The ETF version of Pimco's Total Return Fund (TRXT) will cost just 0.55% - 35 basis points lower than its nearly $250B mutual fund counterpart [PTTAX]. Some are taking the release of specific expense data as a sign TRXT's launch is imminent.  [View news story]
    Yep - one of the biggest ETF launches in as long as I can remember!
    Mar 1 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Setting Up The Big Gold Short [View article]
    How did gold do from 1980 through 2003 guys? Just saying... For all those that think gold can't drop 65% or 70% over a prolonged period, history is not your friend. Not saying it will drop in the near future but saying it's not possible is simply not prudent.
    Feb 29 03:35 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
467 Comments
435 Likes