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Jonathan Muller

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  • Nokia Finds Itself A Real Contender Once Again [View article]
    It's a fair question. Unfortunately I can only report on when a stock doesn't seem to be trading at its appropriate value, not when that will change. However, if you want an answer (which you'll have to take with a grain of salt), there are a few serious potential catalysts coming up that could help move the share price. The next two earnings results will have the potential to move share price, especially as Q3 will have the effect of allowing investors to see the success of the 925 and 928. Additionally, Nokia is holding an event on July 11, and after seeing the invite, it's extremely likely they will be releasing their EOS 41 megapixel Windows Phone. Those two events could do wonders in revitalizing Nokia's share price to better reflect fundamental value.
    Jun 13, 2013. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Finds Itself A Real Contender Once Again [View article]
    Not as large doesn't mean not as valuable. It simply means not as large, and as I wrote that it was in the context of revenues. Though the gap is closing, NSN consistently makes less in revenues than the Devices and Services division.
    Jun 13, 2013. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Finds Itself A Real Contender Once Again [View article]
    You're absolutely right about that, I seem to have been a little bit careless when I wrote that sentence. Thank you for catching that! Of course, that only supports the points being made regarding the value of Nokia's patents and its possibility of being purchased.
    Jun 13, 2013. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Finds Itself A Real Contender Once Again [View article]

    I have read about rumors regarding a Nokia tablet and phablet. Tablet rumors a more prevalent, and suggestions are that it would be 7-8 inches and run on WP8. However, there hasn't been any real official word past typical interest in eventually entering the market, and even if it were true, production of a device is far from ensuring its quality, and therefore its success. However, I'm very interested in the possibility of it happening and will be playing close attention for any new developments.
    Jun 13, 2013. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Finds Itself A Real Contender Once Again [View article]

    Those reasons are definitely valid, which is why Apple is being subject to these buyout talks. Having said that, valid as they are, the reasons don't convince me. Apple already has a functioning (though admittedly not stellar) maps services of its own, would have no desire to buy Nokia for camera technology, and has historically shown no interest in making any sort of drastically different phone. Additionally, Apple sells the iPhone in China and has a distribution network -- it simply does not offer the phone through China Mobile, and not due to any distribution deficiency.

    The royalties and MSFT arguments make more sense. Royalties to Nokia have never been disclosed, but Nokia disclosed patent revenues of just under $1.3B. Obviously, Apple isn't the only com[any paying these revenues, so if we assume that the company pays $800 million annually, and include the 63% premium MMI received, Apple would be paying 27 years worth of royalties. That's a terrible reason alone to buy Nokia, and though all reasons combined make the buyout more probable, I'm just not inclined to believe it at the moment.

    Lastly, Nokia deserves a premium, but a 124/share buyout is obscene. If you want to compare it to Motorola's buyout, that occurred at a 63% premium, which would put Nokia's stock price at $5.75
    Jun 13, 2013. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluating Nvidia Amidst Stock Stagnation [View article]

    As for stating that these will be operated by Tegra 4, you're right in that this hasn't been confirmed and I'm speculating. But speculations can still be grounded in reality. If Microsoft starts making smaller tablets, and if Bay Trail is fully capable of running Windows 8 in a power efficient way, it stands to reason that bay Trail will make its way into the larger tablets that are currently out and they will run the full Windows 8 to have the tablets act as a replacement to a netbook. Smaller, cheaper tablets will have even more power constraints and would be marketed as more recreational devices which would work perfectly well with RT. The Tegra is already powering most RT devices, it supports Windows RT extremely well, it has proven performance and OEMs have already established trust in these chips. While anything can happen, it stands to reason that when these tablets come out, and they will, Tegra 4 will power most of them.
    Apr 23, 2013. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluating Nvidia Amidst Stock Stagnation [View article]
    There are a few reasons for this.

    The first, and main reason, is that in an attempt to accelerate the development and launch of the 4i by half a year, the Tegra 4's release was delayed by one quarter. The delay probably cost Nvidia a few design wins by OEMs that didn't want to deal with the uncertainty of a very close release date, potential supply issues, etc. This is probably what happened with Google, and why it's very likely that Qualcomm will be in the revamped Nexus 7; it is not a consequence of inferior performance by Tegra 4.

    The second reason is that, in all fairness, there aren't a lot of "high profile" contracts to be won just yet. There was the Nexus and a few tablets (primarily by Acer), but there are scores more soon to come. Among others, Microsoft has already indicated that they are working with OEMs and/or producing smaller Windows tablets. While the Surface will probably soon be powered by Bay Trail, this opens up an entire batch of small tablets, the significant majority of which will be powered by the Tegra 4.

    Bay Trail will be a very visible presence in the Windows tablet space, I don't suspect it will impact Android devices much -- and neither will Qualcomm beyond any wins they get due to the Tegra delay until they build a SoC that can better compete with the Tegra.
    Apr 23, 2013. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluating Nvidia Amidst Stock Stagnation [View article]
    I was surprised to hear that figure because I hadn't come across it before, and I did find a few estimates of that sort. The problem is that Nvidia is keeping extremely quiet about this, and they've never taken part in the handheld gaming industry, so estimates have a huge range, from $199 to $500. Going back and seeing the distribution of the estimations and the sources, it seems the more appropriate consensus is $300-400 ( Because Shield will be able to stream all your PC games and use your PC GPU for the graphics processing, the higher price indicates that the device primarily targets very active gamers with high-performance GeForce GPUS in their computers (and will hopefully incentivize a few gamers to upgrade their hardware as well). I imagine this is just a form of price discrimination, as is the case with these devices, and once those with the highest demand get their hands on a shield, prices will drop to that $250 range a few months after launch.
    Apr 22, 2013. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reevaluating Nvidia Amidst Stock Stagnation [View article]
    I agree with you, I was using that pricing figure to highlight the small amount of sales needed to recoup any losses, even with such a low selling point. My guess is that the device will fall in line with other handhelds like the Nintendo 3DS and PS Vita, both of which sold initially at $250. Again, with a 40 percent margin, they would need to sell 100,000 units, which is meager when compared to the 30 million units the 3DS sold, or the 4.3 million they sold before cutting prices.
    Apr 22, 2013. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment