Jonathan Rose

Proposal for Fed to Become the Next AIG

Great have the US government underwrite all business risk. Anyone who has dealt with the government will have experienced that they don't hire the brightest of people and because they are coddled in the feather blanket of a job for life they have no understanding of the real world.

In my recent dealing with the real world the government employee did get that by not returning my lawyers calls or leaving answer phone messages stating said employee was away it cost me thousands of dollars in legal fees. They don't have the foggiest about anything in the real world, how can they evaluate risk and determine how much they need to insure that risk.......

In the UK the socialized medicine and everything else has resulted in taxes around 51% - the US seems to be at that figure as well now and yet has non of the costs - where is the money being spent - defense - wait till you add a health service on which will cost you double what your defense budget does.....
Clinton did damage that will last a generation and with the current administration I have never been so scared in my life

Spike in Mass Layoff Events

Grasping at Straws - Bernanke is such an imbecile he jumps and grasps at every tenuous link and announcing the recession is over - it has years to run, the banks have so much property to filter through, there are so many people unable to file for unemployment. He is so desperate to imbue hope that he undoes the whole process and no one believes in him or the government any longer. It is the small guy/ mom and pop entrepreneurial companies that are the backbone of the USA. Right now we are seeing migrant workers drifting around the USA as they look for work, the county we live in has seen a 24% population decrease as everyone heads for major cities in hope of work.

Small town USA is dying.

Meanwhile the stimulus package is supposedly plowing trillions of dollar back into the economy, very little has been spent and in our dealings with state and local government they are all firing and cutting back existing roles and cutting salaries.

Bank of America's Tangle with the SEC Is Quickly Settled

The SEC is very very good at harassing small business owners and inconsequential individuals out of business. Lawyers who will even handle SEC cases are generally exorbitant (around $700-1000 an hour) and the SEC will refuse to talk to you they have to ask you lawyer who asks you and back and forth racking up tens of thousands of $ in a matter of a few weeks.

They are unsupervised, unregulated, incompetent and truly the primary maintainer of status quo. My experience has been that they are there to protect the people inside the club and will go to the greatest lengths at the club members request.....

Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?

We sold in 2005 and have been renting since. When you can get a $1-1.5m home and pay $2000 a month someone (the home owner) is subsidizing your lifestyle to the tun of $5-9000 a month or $60000 a year or more. While you aren't building equity - why pay so much more than you need too. You also have greater flexibility as so many people are tied to particular job markets etc by their home. We plan to buy a foreclosure in 12-18 months or to build a home as supplies and skilled laborers will be bidding so hard for jobs that build costs should be back under $100 per square foot.

I really like this article, there has been a moratorium on foreclosures and the banks are stacking a hidden inventory of property off their balance sheets - Wachovia's inventory didn't go into Wells Fargo it went to all manner of different companies like Midland Loan Servicing.

At the present time as we see unemployment surge there will be a whole wave of new foreclosures that need to take place as people who had their head above water lost one of two wage earners and can no longer afford their primary home and second home (I read an article saying the average equity in second homes bought in the 2 highest years of the real estate boom was less than 1%)

We are not close to a bottom, the average person is still unable to buy a home at the present time and rental incomes do not cover mortgage payments which is a leading indicator of property prices being correct and balanced......

Still Skeptical That We've Seen the Housing Bottom

I agree wholeheartedly with this article there has been a moratorium on foreclosures and the banks are stacking a hidden inventory of property off their balance sheets - Wachovia's inventory didn't go into Wells Fargo it went to all manner of different companies like Midland Loan Servicing. This is just serving to draw out the depression rather than using a very swift and decisive correction (as has happened in th UK for example)

At the present time as we see unemployment surge there will be a whole wave of new foreclosures that need to take place as people who had their head above water lost one of two wage earners and can no longer afford their primary home and second home (I read an article saying the average equity in second homes bought in the 2 highest years of the real estate boom was less than 1%)

We are not close to a bottom, the average person is still unable to buy a home at the present time and rental incomes do not cover mortgage payments which is a leading indicator of property prices being correct and balanced......

Revisiting Case-Shiller: House Prices Bottoming but Far from Stabilized

The problem with this premise is that exists is there has been a moratorium on foreclosures and the banks are stacking a hidden inventory of property off their balance sheets - Wachovia's inventory didn't go into Wells Fargo it went to all manner of different companies like Midland Loan Servicing.

At the present time as we see unemployment surge there will be a whole wave of new foreclosures that need to take place as people who had their head above water lost one of two wage earners and can no longer afford their primary home and second home (I read an article saying the average equity in second homes bought in the 2 highest years of the real estate boom was less than 1%)

We are not close to a bottom, the average person is still unable to buy a home at the present time and rental incomes do not cover mortgage payments which is a leading indicator of property prices being correct and balanced......

S&P's CRE Ratings Round Trip: Agency Now Deserving of Credibility Downgrade

I think everyone knows that the credit rating agencies are more responsible for the current market crash than any other group. They are the ones who put triple A ratings on toilet paper, they should be liable - dissolved - their directors and owners should go to jail if they cannot repay the losses on ever single note that they gave a AAA rating on that proved to be junk.... They have profited and now they should be held accountable they have committed a deception almost on a par with madoff as they pretended to be doing something that they clearly were not.....

The saddest part of all is that the utterly broken system is going on untouched. Pension funds, Insurance companies et al are still demanding you have a credit rating and pay the agencies tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for absolutely nothing. Everyone needs to boycott the rating agencies.

How Can the Stimulus Bill Alleviate Unemployment?

I think if you look at the unemployment figures you have to remember those that cannot apply for unemployment for various reasons, that many of the figures relate only to new claims of unemployment and understand that these figures mask a true epidemic in the US workplace, real unemployment number may be in excess of 8% nationwide and as high as 15% in some states such as California.

The government has become way to large a proportion of spending in the USA and as a bloated entity needs streamlining just as corporations are doing as a result of the downturn. The faster the government prints money the worse the economy will become.

Also most of the initial bailouts haven't been spent just rushed though in an thoughtless guise much like the Patriot Act. Government responds with hysteria not common sense.

A Solution to the Housing Debacle

There really should not be a let off in the system, if you were fiscally irresponsible or bought into the hype then as a "grown up" you have to suffer the consequences of your actions. The realtor's who hyped the price based on nothing and made fortunes, the brokers who made the put you in the "never repayable" loan and the banks (who should be allowed to fail) who rolled the lousy loan into a bundle and sold it should all be penalized.... However most of all the organization that made all this possible by giving the "toxic" loans a "AAA" credit rating should have to pay out billions....

Priming the Pump for $20/Gal. Gas: Interview with Chris Steiner

I would expect to see nuclear powered freighters and electric trains powered by wind farms and solar power plant which negates much of the argument that life will be irrevocably changed and we will de-globalize.

The internet and communication improvement has brought us too close together for that to be easily undone. Also expect to see significant developments in air travel using alternates to petroleum. Also expect to see sugar cane and corn values rise in the medium term to combat short petroleum supplies.

This is a very inflammatory book and topic hoping to sell off the back of recent oil price hikes. If you visit jonathanrosecompany.com you will see we predicted price reductions whilst this book was being written. The human species is very adaptive and creative and I for one have absolute faith that life and quality of life will not be impacted as severely as portrayed. England has had exorbitant gas prices for years due to government taxation.

Bank of America: 'Amazed by Goldman Sachs' Unmatched Risk Taking / Risk Management Skills'

More of the same - The SEC's job is to maintain the current status quo and the current administration is made up of Goldman groupies - they have the strongest alumni in the world, closely followed by the Harvard Mafia... America has become exactly what it set out to escape, an entrenched, aristocratic, oligarchy where the "have's" create such complex barriers to entry that the "have not's" have no chance to break in.... So much for innovation, the american dream and people working their way up from nothing with blood sweat and tears (unless you play sports or are an entertainer)

Notes on a Scandal: High Dividend Investor's Survival Guide to This Unsustainable Rally

great article -

Where do you think inflation and interest rates will go as a result?
Doesnt this make a resounding case for fixed income.....

P.s was the gunshot really from Bush - so many of the problems seem to stem from Clinton's bills - Bush's legacy is probably still a few years away if we can get to it without Obama killing the economy.... $3+ trillion in the hands of consumers would have resulted in spending, saving and investment not trying to fill the endless off balance sheet black holes that Clinton's bills allowed.

John Hussman: Fighting Recklessness with Recklessness

Great article, these methods were all tried and failed in the 1930's, the only thing that worked was WWII and some $500Bn in government war spending and a significant decrease in the male population to achieve full employment. That would be equivalent of $10-30 Trillion in todays rapidly devaluing currency.... By the end of Obama's tenure, if he carry s on the way he has started, we could see a $ worth 10% of what it is today.

Banker CEOs Lied to Congress

Why am i not surprised. I don't understand how employees feel they can justify such incredibly large bonuses and returns. Are they simply saving i have waited my turn and beaten out everyone else to this job and it is now my chance to rape the company that has paid my bills and given me job security.

If these guys set up the company and built it from scratch as entrepreneurs and took risks went without food to make it happen, more power to them that is the American way.

This however is pretty intolerable as most have never done anything special or of great worth in their lives and have never really built anything

First Time Housing Affordability Surges in California

Has anyone looked at the source of the graph, sounds like a great way to try and boost sales to me.......