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Jonathan Verenger

 
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  • Straightforward Business, Compelling Valuation And Investment Opportunity: Travel Centers Of America LLC [View article]
    In their most recent 10-k I'm seeing 81% of sales from fuel
    Jan 25, 2015. 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straightforward Business, Compelling Valuation And Investment Opportunity: Travel Centers Of America LLC [View article]
    I keep looking at the valuation of this company. Very, very interesting company. I'm really surprised it's not valued higher given how positive the fundamentals of their business are and given the M&A activity in its space. Could just be a matter of consolidating gains from 2013 but I could make a case for this being valued above $30.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow And The Quest For Profitability [View article]
    Is there anyone long Z? Seems like a loaded boat
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Companies Like Tesla And Amazon Might Be Undervalued [View article]
    Amazon currently has 5% higher gross margins than WMT. In a low margin business this is a massive lead. If Amazon wasn't so focused on winning over the entire retail world they could drop significant $$ to the bottom line
    Jan 22, 2015. 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straightforward Business, Compelling Valuation And Investment Opportunity: Travel Centers Of America LLC [View article]
    Is that the dollar value of us retail sales? If so I'd have to imagine 40% lower gas prices has had a big impact.
    Jan 21, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Is A Good Investment For 2015 [View article]
    Anyone have an idea as to what the fully diluted share count is now, after the convertible and the secondary? I believe that added an additional 2 million or so shares.
    Jan 18, 2015. 02:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straightforward Business, Compelling Valuation And Investment Opportunity: Travel Centers Of America LLC [View article]
    I'd think the value would be diminished if the fundamentals were worsening but the opposite is happening. That's the most important thing
    Jan 14, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straightforward Business, Compelling Valuation And Investment Opportunity: Travel Centers Of America LLC [View article]
    Nice article. Thanks for doing the legwork. You didn't go into specifics about the improved potential margin from falling crude oil. Did you look at this in detail? I'm seeing a drop in oil of 59% vs a drop in avg fuel prices of 44%. For a low margin business that's substantial.
    Jan 13, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    One of my concerns with using EBIT and not EBITDA is accounting rules require you to amortize intangibles like goodwill and I would argue that the goodwill of a company like Ferrari shouldn't be amortized away and therefore EBITDA is a more accurate estimate.

    That's why I'm asking what the intangibles are and what the amort was.

    Look at a company like MANU (Manchester United). Trades at 60 times earnings but in q3 they had about $20 Million in amortization of goodwill. So on an EBITDA basis it trades at roughly 11 or 12 times. On a EBIT basis it looks significantly more expensive.

    That's another premier / luxury brand company...obviously not as capital intensive but also not nearly as profitable or cash flow positive.

    My take is Ferrari is probably worth the 10+ EBITDA multiple that only a few people are suggesting. I think analysts are far too bearish on the brand. Could be wrong but wouldn't shock me to see a 11 figure valuation when it goes public, leaving the rest of the company worth maybe 1X EBITDA.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    Why use EBIT and not EBITDA? Most multiples are based on EBITDA.

    Also, I see $274MM Euro, assuming a 1.244 conv ratio I get to $454mm USD EBIT run rate (not EBITDA) and 365mm Euro for 2014. Just curious why you're using a lower value for 2015 given production will expand and the licensing / e-comm / retail revs are growing around 15-20%.

    Also, any idea what the Amort is for intangibles (ie Goodwill)?
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    Not sure I see your math but I do agree that dilution can not just be considered by itself. You must also consider the impact that the capital has on the business itself. If used to pay down debt it increases EPS, if used to expand you need to determine ROC. Lots of variables than just saying this increased shares by X% so the stock should be down X%. Obviously, short term traders think like this but the longer term investors in the stock will drive it, pun intended, to where it should be.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    I'm showing 1st 9 months of 2014 as 454 Million Euros. That's 600 million euros for the year. Using 1.244 conversion that's $750 Million USD.

    http://bit.ly/16fvgSY

    Does that change anything for you?
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    AI - What EBIT are you using for Ferrari?
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    If everyone is bearish then what does that tell you? Read most of the comments here and ask yourself what side the majority is on.
    Sep 29, 2014. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai Agents Rise Up Against SouFun [View article]
    So are you saying the parent is ok with individual franchises boycotting them?
    Aug 6, 2014. 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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