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Jonathan Verenger

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  • My Transition To Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) [View article]
    Do you fear thy there is a bubble in high yield stocks?
    Mar 10 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    People will eventually realize at some point that their disgruntled attitude toward leaders and finance has prevented them from saving for their own retirement and taking advantage of returns that equities provide. it's ok to voice your opinion, but to do it at the detriment of your long term financial well-being is a horrible decision.
    Mar 10 02:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will The Stock Market Go? [View article]
    James - Good article. Did you turn bullish? Haven't read you in 18 months or so. I believe you were looking for a recession then. Are you still looking for a recession?
    Feb 5 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For These Dry Shipping Stocks, The Ugly Crash Is Just Starting [View article]
    I was wondering that myself. I haven't been able to find anything stating that.
    Jan 28 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Load The Boat On DryShips [View article]
    From what I've researched, BALT is the best positioned shipper in the entire group. Massive upside leverage with very manageable debt. Could pay $2 annual dividend if rates get back to 2009/2010 levels.

    Having said that, if rates rise substantially, then ultimately the most indebted ones will do the best (EGLE, GNK). Same thing happened with casinos back in 2009, for example.

    FD: I'm long BALT. Risk-reward is best with BALT.
    Dec 5 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guanwei Recycling: Valuation Looks Very Attractive [View article]
    I know there are a few issues with this:
    (1) there are less than 4 million shares in the float - trading would essentially dry up if they were to take 2 million shares off the market.
    (2) insiders own 60% of the company so the larger the buyback the higher the likelihood that they would have to sell some of their own shares at a discount to book and near trough level prices
    (3) they plan on expanding their production facilities as well as upgrading equipment to become more efficient in the near term which will require capital. they have the opportunity to expand operations pretty significantly because output is about half of their annual quota. this is part of the reason why i think it is very cheap around $2.70...it is down on an earnings "miss" due to a one time event and before they will be expanding operations. i think it's reasonable to expect earnings and the multiple to expand going forward.
    Nov 27 01:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jiayuan.com: Compelling Long-Term Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    Hi Mike - I don't like LOV. The company hasn't had any luck turning a profit for years now. Having said that there has been some heavy insider buying by Osmium
    Nov 26 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guanwei Recycling: Valuation Looks Very Attractive [View article]
    snaith - thanks for commenting. excellent questions and I think you're on the right path in getting a level of comfort with the Chinese small caps before investing. Believe me one of the concerns I always have with any company including Chinese companies is that they have affiliated suppliers. Here is what I dug up before:

    Recycling Dienstleistung Beratung (RDB) GmbH is GPRC's largest supplier at over 33% of raw materials cost. I confirmed with Peter Franke (see contact info above) that RDB was purchased by Interseroh. Interseroh has a majority ownership in RDB. Here is a PR about this acquisition:
    http://prn.to/1iQ103b

    Peter also confirmed that the founder of RDB went on to help found TM Recycling after the sale. Both companies are German owned. I'll check in to the others but those two alone make up 50% of raw materials costs.

    Regarding the switch in auditors, here is the PR from 2 years ago:
    "BDO’s reports on the Company’s financial statements for each of the past two years contained no adverse opinions or a disclaimers of opinion, and were not qualified or modified as to uncertainty, audit scope, or accounting principles. During the Company’s two most recent fiscal years and any subsequent interim period preceding the resignation of BDO, there were no disagreements with BDO on any matter of accounting principles or practices, financial statement disclosure, or auditing scope or procedure, which disagreements, if not resolved to the satisfaction of BDO, would have caused it to make reference to the subject matter of the disagreements in connection with its report. There have been no reportable events as provided in Item 304(a)(v) of Regulation S-K during the Company’s two most recent fiscal years and any subsequent interim period preceding BDO’s resignation."

    Source: http://bit.ly/1iQ103f

    Regarding the inspections, I know the company was having them done regularly by companies like TUV Rheinland but I'll see what else I can dig up. I know that their German suppliers are required to inspect the facilities / factories of company's purchasing from them if they are to abide by AQSIQ rules.

    Thanks again for the comments.
    Nov 26 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Guanwei Recycling: Valuation Looks Very Attractive [View article]
    Good luck scate. In due time GPRC should command a substantially higher multiple. Investors are slowly beginning to warm up to Chinese stocks. The valuations are too compelling if you can get comfortable with the fact that the vast majority of these are not frauds. But that will take time for people to realize. One risk I see with GPRC is that they take the company private sooner than it realizes its full valuation potential. The founders control over 60% of the float and the remaining float (4 million shares) can be purchased for only $10.4 Million based on today's price. Right now there is really no justification for the price of the stock and I think the company is beginning to agree with this as they have mentioned this the past couple of quarters.
    Nov 26 01:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    Thanks for the response. I'm very disappointed with what transpired at FMD. While I think some of the information was already out there with regards to the tax issue, I don't think the company disclosed the potential liability fully and I think they were very aggressive in their treatment. I also really don't like that they issued a substantially amount of options right before the earnings release with Dan Meyers' options vesting immediately, nor do I like a few other things. They all added up to a sell for me, unfortunately. The timing was horrible. I never like to sell on weakness but the combination of all of these things was too much for me to remain in the stock. Unfortunately, you can't get all of the calls right.

    One other thing - I've stressed before you need to know your risk. Don't invest too much in these small caps and set a cut off at which you will take a look and admit defeat. Tough to do because we all think we're right about everything but we're not.
    Nov 14 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jiayuan.com: Compelling Long-Term Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    Thanks ayosd. I apologize but I've had a lot of personal/business things going on that kept me tied up. Best of luck to you.
    Oct 17 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jiayuan.com: Strong Balance Sheet But Needing To Reduce User Churn [View article]
    Longer term trends are impressive though. Six-fold increase in sales and corresponding increase in income in just the past few years. The past year has seen stalling EPS growth as they have spent a lot on investing in mobile growth and improving their site. This should pay off well in the future. If you consider a 3 fold increase in top and bottom line over the next 5 years (24% annual growth) then this is trading at 5X EPS. If this happens, I suspect the market would trade it at at least 20X. Could be a nice longer term investment.
    Oct 4 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qihoo 360 - Too Expensive And Too Many Risks [View article]
    Wow what a stock. I would still recommend steering clear of shorting QIHU. BIDU is a sleepier stock but one that in my opinion you can sleep soundly with.
    Jul 26 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    I keep reading about this bubble in all of the news outlets. I even heard its going to be a bigger problem than the mortgage bubble. Apparently it's the next big shoe to drop.
    Jul 15 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    Thank you bernie. I know a lot of people are down and out on this company and the PSL market. Hasn't been the first time I've seen sentiment like this.
    Jul 9 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
330 Comments
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