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Jonathan Verenger  

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  • YRC Worldwide: A Turnaround Story With Momentum [View article]
    I don't understand why all disagreements on message boards always have to degrade into heated arguments. My goal with this article was to highlight YRCW as an undervalued investment based on its current valuation relative to the underlying business. It acknowledges that there are some issues and have been some issues with the company. I don't think anyone is arguing this.

    However, at a valuation of $50 Million relative to a leading market position in LTL freight, the stock appears to be extremely undervalued. Trucker's sentiment reinforces my belief that the overall sentiment by investors is that the stock is worthless.

    Having said this an argument can be made that the new management team has rightsized the company and is now gaining momentum behind its turnaround strategy. Time will time how things go but the company has over 2 years until its next debt payment is due, lenders are clearly behind their turnaround strategy (as evidenced by their willingness to renegotiate their loans and by S&P assigning high recovery ratings on their debt), and the Teamsters are working with the company to help get it back up on its feet.

    Will it ever be worth $2 Billion again, which is what it would be valued at if it was trading at the same multiples as it's competitors? I can't say that for any certainty whatsoever. However, it's easy to see the company being valued at $500 Million again should the company see positive net income as it is projecting. I believe Investors will become much more willing to invest in the company over the coming months as they continue to stay on track with their turnaround. There is currently a huge black cloud over the common stock as evidenced by it's relative valuation on a price to sales ratio compared to others in the industry (i.e., 0.01 vs 0.35 on average).

    I have seen turnarounds with companies like SIRI and CHTR, both hugely indebted companies, that blew all negative investors out of the water. I've also seen companies like PIR and SCSS turn from a valuation of $10 Million to over $1 Billion in 2 to 3 years. Judging what investors' sentiment will be with a turnaround is always tricky; however, YRCW does have a lot of things in place to suggest they can pull it off. Again, my article is acknowledging the negatives but it's also pointing out that there are clearly some positives that need to be acknowledged as well.
    Sep 13, 2012. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arkansas Best Corporation: Mid-Quarter Update Confirms Long-Term Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Alpine - I wrote about YRCW in my article below:

    The entire industry is rebounding nicely. YRCW, while it has had some major issues, presents a very unique investment opportunity within the industry because investors have written the stock off for dead. I'm not a huge fan of ABFS - I believe it's better to go with industry leaders in terms of volume or upstarts. RRTS is a very interesting up and comer.
    Sep 13, 2012. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide: A Turnaround Story With Momentum [View article]
    amopar - there are a lot of parties interested in seeing YRCW succeed. combine this with a very talented management team and you have a recipe for a nice turnaround.
    Sep 12, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Markets Set To Underperform Foreign Markets [View article]
    How about the valuations of each?
    Sep 11, 2012. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide: A Turnaround Story With Momentum [View article]
    TJ - YRCW's revenues have held steady over the past two years and have actually even grown a little bit. Margins have actually improved slightly during this time as well. That doesn't mean YRCW has no competition, but it certainly helps that they have point to point coverage across almost every point in the US and are getting much better with on time deliveries under their new management team. Those are key areas that they can compete on.
    Sep 11, 2012. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Hated Trades Today [View article]
    Here is another stock that is deeply hated: YRCW. See my article on them:
    Sep 11, 2012. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Markets Set To Underperform Foreign Markets [View article]
    Dean - I'm looking at the charts more than anything; however, I'd recommend reading up on the monetary / fiscal policy in response to the Great Depression. Times may have changed but the circumstances and responses haven't. There's a reason why the we have always hurdled over major issues and had the markets go higher over time. It's called inflation.
    Sep 10, 2012. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Gold Near 5 Month Highs [View article]
    "Natural gas can still trade to 2.500 perhaps lower if production increases and/or the warmer then expected temperatures moderate which they will eventually. "

    You're leaning bearish obviously...and you're hinting at warmer than expected temperatures moderating in the near future for support in your bearish thinking. Re-read your earlier statements.
    Sep 4, 2012. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Gold Near 5 Month Highs [View article]
    "As far as winter being colder then average, its impossible to know with certainty what kind of winter we could have at this time. Hope is not a valid trading strategy with Natural gas. "

    Then why are you implying any knowledge of the weather in your statement? I'm simply pointing out how it's foolish to suggest that the price of natural gas will go one way or another based on your predictions of the weather. And I would suggest that the current price is assuming the worst. Any hint of cold weather or reduction in production will greatly improve the price of nat gas
    Sep 4, 2012. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Gold Near 5 Month Highs [View article]
    what if production decreases and / or the winter is colder than expected? can't have it just one way.
    Sep 1, 2012. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: 40 Rigs Can Maintain Haynesville Production Plateau [View article]
    I think the market is thinking that there will be a big production cut coming soon.
    Aug 31, 2012. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas 'Ponzi Scheme' [View article]

    This all proves to me anyway that something is rotten in Denmark.

    Why are these NG guys producing last spring when they could get twice the price shutting in?

    Your lease argument puts them on worse ground if they can be in leases with such lousy terms. "

    This is PRECISELY why it's not wise to buy the producers but rather buy the commodity.
    Aug 30, 2012. 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas 'Ponzi Scheme' [View article]
    Ok whatever you say mmmmmmmmmmmmarrrkkkkkk... Obviously if they thought it was economical to develop the land they would have. Instead they are promoting it as a no brainer and selling the land. Doesn't that give you pause?
    Aug 30, 2012. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas 'Ponzi Scheme' [View article]
    McClendon has made public remarks regarding their desire to sell the land at a premium to their purchase price over developing it. That alone should tell you what their motive is to issuing glowing projections on resources / costs.
    Aug 29, 2012. 06:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Natural Gas 'Ponzi Scheme' [View article]
    apwwest59 > CHK bought up thousands of acres of fact, I believe at one point they were the largest private landowner in the world. They have been selling off that land on the promise of cheap abundant shale gas. I'd caution you on thinking there is nothing to gain by these shenanigans.
    Aug 29, 2012. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment