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Jonathan Verenger  

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  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    Why use EBIT and not EBITDA? Most multiples are based on EBITDA.

    Also, I see $274MM Euro, assuming a 1.244 conv ratio I get to $454mm USD EBIT run rate (not EBITDA) and 365mm Euro for 2014. Just curious why you're using a lower value for 2015 given production will expand and the licensing / e-comm / retail revs are growing around 15-20%.

    Also, any idea what the Amort is for intangibles (ie Goodwill)?
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    Not sure I see your math but I do agree that dilution can not just be considered by itself. You must also consider the impact that the capital has on the business itself. If used to pay down debt it increases EPS, if used to expand you need to determine ROC. Lots of variables than just saying this increased shares by X% so the stock should be down X%. Obviously, short term traders think like this but the longer term investors in the stock will drive it, pun intended, to where it should be.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    I'm showing 1st 9 months of 2014 as 454 Million Euros. That's 600 million euros for the year. Using 1.244 conversion that's $750 Million USD.

    http://bit.ly/16fvgSY

    Does that change anything for you?
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fiat Chrysler Shares Fell Back To Earth In December [View article]
    AI - What EBIT are you using for Ferrari?
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bubble Stage Of This Bull Market May Be Nigh [View article]
    If everyone is bearish then what does that tell you? Read most of the comments here and ask yourself what side the majority is on.
    Sep 29, 2014. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai Agents Rise Up Against SouFun [View article]
    So are you saying the parent is ok with individual franchises boycotting them?
    Aug 6, 2014. 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shanghai Agents Rise Up Against SouFun [View article]
    I'm sure you saw this but it looks like LEJU may be winning listing business from SouFun (NYSE:SFUN). Just saw this news on Stocktwits...the weakness in all of these online RE companies today may be attributed to the following:

    http://bit.ly/XDZc72

    Check out the names of the first two listed above:
    "The brokerages, led by Centaline Property Agency, Century 21 Real Estate and Shanghai Deovolente Realty, accused New York-listed Soufun of going back on its word when it introduced new ancillary charges that effectively negate a discount it promised in June in a reconciliation agreement."

    Here's LEJU's news from 2 weeks ago:
    http://yhoo.it/XDZdrK
    " today announced that it has signed strategic agreements with over 100 secondary brokerage agencies in 17 key cities in China, including four secondary brokerage agency alliance groups in Hangzhou, Qingdao, Chongqing and Xi'an. The participating brokerage agencies include 5i5j, Centaline, Century 21 China Real Estate, Home Link, and My Top Home, among others. "

    Looks like Century 21 and Centaline are two potential defections. SFUN did $200 Million in listing revenues last year so this could be a nice development for LEJU if they're willing to play soft ball.

    The fact is, though, in the bigger picture the trend is toward online. And if LEJU is partnered with Tencent, Baidu, Sina, and soon to be Zillow, odds are they will be the biggest winner (and EJ by derivative). I think its important to ask why Zillow chose to do an exclusive partnership with LEJU and why Tencent took a 15% stake in LEJU
    Aug 6, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiet Period Expiration For ServiceMaster Global IPO Serves Up A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    What about things like revenues and profits?
    Jul 16, 2014. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Investors Shrug Off Property Downturn, Cheer SouFun [View article]
    This is eerily similar to Zillow back in late 2012. They were growing like a weed yet people were expecting another housing downturn. It wouldn't matter one bit even if it would have happened because the secular trend toward online was (and still is) in its infancy. Also like the fear of a slowdown hurting Z / MA back in 2008/9. People were missing the major tailwinds benefiting those companies.
    Jul 14, 2014. 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Investors Shrug Off Property Downturn, Cheer SouFun [View article]
    The bigger Question more likely is what is more important: a slowdown in housing or a 1% online penetration rate with most developers moving a lot of spending online?
    Jul 11, 2014. 01:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SouFun: 65% Upside On Great Growth And Far-Fetched Fear [View article]
    Here's some more info on LEJU for you fellas:
    Shares outstanding: 133.53 Million = $1.494 Billion Market Cap
    Tencent owns 16% of shares
    EJ owns 75% of shares
    Roughly 11 Million shares in float, 1 Million of which owned by Fidelity

    Sales rose about 100% last quarter. They are basically the Zillow of China. If fact, they have an exclusive partnership with Zillow launching this summer: http://bit.ly/1sYIopk

    They have listings that have coupons for home buyers to use toward the purchase of a home. In addition to this they generate listing fees and advertising fees. 33,872 coupons were redeemed in Q1 for a total of $49.7 Million (about $1,467 per coupon). If you annualize this, the run rate is about 135k coupons redeemed. The housing market (new and existing) in China is roughly 4-5X the US. I can't get an exact figure but that's an estimate. The US market is roughly 5.8 Million new and existing annually. So let's say 4X the US market or 23 Million homes. That means the coupons redeemed equates to a penetration rate of about 0.58%. The number of coupons redeemed was up 167% this past quarter. I don't know what the upside is but if you think it's 5% then you can see why there's massive upside in this business. Gross margins are around 85% and net margins will expand exponentially as they reduce the spending on building out their website and network. You could make an argument that they get to $1.5 Billion in coupon sales, at 85% margins, yields $1.24 Billion in gross profit. Back out double their current SG&A and you get $750 Million in net income. Keep in mind I have excluded the listings revenues and the advertising revenues, both of which should add at least $200 Million in revenues within 2 years.

    Vs a market cap of $1.5 Billion right now.

    The company has big backers / partnerships in Tencent, Zillow, Baidu, and Sina. This has a lot of potential and will be interesting to see how it plays out. I kind of think this could be a BITA/CTRP/VIPS type investment. Very interesting one here. I prefer them over SFUN just because my understanding is they're more web 1.0. Plus why else would Zillow / Baidu / Sina partner with them?
    Jul 2, 2014. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Favorite Solar Energy Stock: SunPower Corporation [View article]
    that struck me as odd too
    Jun 10, 2014. 01:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Aflac An Ugly Duckling Or A Beautiful Swan? [View article]
    Since pretty much everyone is in agreement that Japan sucks and is dragging down AFL, what if Japan undergoes a revival? I know, I know, its impossible. But let's just play devil's advocate here:

    GDP growth was about 6% in Q1 2014.
    Potential corporate tax cuts are looming.
    Many Japanese ADRs have been performing very well.

    Methinks there's a little too much groupthink on the downsides of AFL. With valuation near all time lows despite solid bottom line growth since the last time it traded in the $60's in 2007/8, its downside seems very limited to me.
    Jun 9, 2014. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    Remember if it was EXTREMELY overvalued last week it's GARGANTUANLY overvalued this week!
    May 29, 2014. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    yikes. therapy is always an option :)
    May 28, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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