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Jonathan Verenger  

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  • TravelCenters Of America: Undervalued Play On Stronger U.S. Economy [View article]
    The sentiment indicator worked again. I received a good deal of negative feedback on my article on TA and naturally, the stock is now at new 52 week highs around $16. I still think this has room to $21 or so.
    Mar 17, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Habit Restaurants: Keep It On The Menu [View article]
    Yeah that's a silly comment. I do expect them to gradually ramp up to 70 to 80 new units per year within 3-5 years, though.

    It's tough to compare all of these burger joints because they are all different. SHAK is a much higher price point, thus pricing out a regular visit from a family of four. It's more of a novelty, destination restaurant.

    HABT is more attainable because you can get a meal for $8 so for a family of four you're looking at $35 (vs $55 or so from SHAK). Plus, "Burgers accounted for approximately 61% of our entrée revenue for the fiscal year ended December 30, 2014" so there is a good deal of people ordering other items. I personally have gotten the chicken sandwiches there the last 3 times I've visited.

    Five Guys is expensive and only offers burgers and fries. Plus, the concept is a bit strange and quite frankly not all that inviting for females / families.

    After the selloff in HABT and assuming revenues come in around $220 Million for 2015, you're looking at a p/s of 3.66 (assumes 26 million shares x $31 / $220M). Not that bad, actually. I think I'll buy some tomorrow on a selloff, assuming people panic because of the S-1.

    If I look out 5 years and assume annualized revenue growth of 25% (not too outlandish at this size of a company), I get revenues of $533M and a market cap (assuming 4x p/s) of $2.1Billion. That equates to 21% annualized returns.
    Mar 13, 2015. 01:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    I think I addressed that. The total market is 375k just for RP. Right now its a subset of that but they will have several software upgrades that will improve eyesight (as I stated
    “Some of the research that we’ve been doing in Europe is we have a new imaging processing technique called, Acuboost, which has allowed us in a patient so far to produce enhanced acuity up to 2200. This has the potential to allow a 4X increase in the adjustable market with this device. We’ve also been able to produce color vision in a number of patients in Europe, and have been working on developing more advanced external hardware as well. So the patients can get both improved image processing and [even] factors. “ source: http://bit.ly/1MdFpgX

    as well as

    “We have an Argus 3 that’s under development. It’s been tested in animals so far. This has an increased number of electrodes, so again allowing for improved acuity down the road. We also have a design for an Argus 4 that would allow us to address the entire blind population. This is about 3 million patients world wide. We have a fair amount of IP on that as well.” source: http://bit.ly/1MdFpgX)

    and therefore make their addressable market much much larger. Right now as we stand in its current state their addressable market is about $5 Billion, however, they have the potential to significantly increase their addressable market with AMD being potentially 4x that and with software upgrades being an additional 4x that. These are massive numbers in light of:

    (1) FDA approval exclusivity for at least 7 years (no one has even applied for clinical trials, let alone gotten the go ahead for them or gotten FDA clearance...and the Retina Implant device with a CE mark has had numerous issues that have caused them to pull the product off the market)

    (2) An ASP of $100k+ per unit with 70%+ margins depending on volume

    (3) A breakeven sales figure of ~350 units per year which breaks down to about 7 implants per center per year (they are targeting 50 centers worldwide...about 25 to 30 now)

    (4) The potential for licensing partnerships in related fields (“We believe that technology developed for the Argus II System also represents a platform for stimulating the nervous system that we may be able to leverage for several other clinical applications outside of vision restoration. There are features of the Argus II System, such as compact size, high electrode count and MRI compatibility, that we believe make it a compelling option to improve existing neuro-stimulation therapies and develop new ones. These possible additional applications may provide further opportunity to increase our revenue in non-core markets through strategic partnerships and/or licensing. “ - source: S-1 http://1.usa.gov/1wNDuyb)

    Any way you slice it they have a monopoly on a very large market with the potential to grow that market exponentially for at least 7 years (assuming it takes 7 years for a competitor to complete FDA clinical trials like it took for EYES). And common sense suggests that any eligible blind patient would jump at the opportunity to see if given the chance, especially when their eyesight will only improve over time with software upgrades (Argus 2 is currently the 14th iteration)

    I believe you're not seeing the forest from the trees Chelsea. Although we do all appreciate being called pumpers and other nonsensical names and we have enjoyed your regurgitation of the "facts" from the "hard hitting" Street Sweeper article on a variety of other message boards like Stocktwits...all under different aliases.
    Mar 7, 2015. 12:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    SerrCo (or ChelseaV on stocktwits as we have come to learn):
    You're greatly underestimating the population, ignoring the potential for upgrades to software (currently on 14th edition), ignoring potential for AMD population, ignoring patent protection, ignoring potential for licensing into other areas like Alzheimer's. Consider this:

    “We have an Argus 3 that’s under development. It’s been tested in animals so far. This has an increased number of electrodes, so again allowing for improved acuity down the road. We also have a design for an Argus 4 that would allow us to address the entire blind population. This is about 3 million patients world wide. We have a fair amount of IP on that as well.”

    “On the commercialization front, the product was approved in Europe in 2011, and we launched late in 2011. It’s currently fully reimbursed in Germany, and Italy, and we have reimbursement pending in the Netherlands, and in France. We’ll do just over $2 million in revenue in 2014 in Europe, and that’s only in four centers so far. “

    “Some of the research that we’ve been doing in Europe is we have a new imaging processing technique called, Acuboost, which has allowed us in a patient so far to produce enhanced acuity up to 2200. This has the potential to allow a 4X increase in the adjustable market with this device. We’ve also been able to produce color vision in a number of patients in Europe, and have been working on developing more advanced external hardware as well. So the patients can get both improved image processing and [even] factors. “
    Mar 6, 2015. 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    $1 Billion mkt cap coming
    Mar 5, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    Are you that person that has been incessantly bashing this stock on Stocktwits?
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    375k patients x $145,000 = $54 Billion

    Then they have AMD which is significantly larger and they're working on approvals for that (clinical trials started in the past few months in UK)

    If they get 10% market share with 80% margins (margins will increase to 80% as they scale up) its a potential $4 Billion net profit coming to them just from RP.
    Mar 5, 2015. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    Just for clarity argus didn't receive FCC clearance until dec 2013 and the first commercial implant wasn't performed in US until Mid 2014. It takes time to get centers set up and doctors trained. Given the $144K price tag, breakeven is very low at 350 units. I believ their target is 40 to 50 centers worldwide eventually which translates into 0.6 to 0.7 surgeries per center per month to get to break even, not exactly a tall task. Plus they will have recurring revenues coming from future software updates.

    Also for clarity sake they raised $36 million from the IPO and at a $5 million per quarter burn rate they will have $15 million or so by end of 2015
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    I dug a little deeper on this one and it seems like this article tries to put this MDB in a bad light but I did find one big winner on their client list: MDVN

    "What MDB Delivered:

    Repositioned company as a “virtual” pharmaceutical company that creates value with a focused, capital light strategy
    Successfully crafted and communicated unique company strategy
    Completed reverse merger with $14MM financing
    Market value transitioned from $10MM to over $400MM in less than 24 months and reached over $800MM in peak market value
    "

    From Biz Journals:
    "MDB was instrumental in helping take the drug company public through a reverse merger with a shell corporation in 2004."

    MDVN now has a 9.4Billion market cap

    Wonder why they didn't mention them...
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight's Euro Momentum [View article]
    Did you read the links that this article includes to research on alternatives? Looks like a bunch of dead ends or options that are so far down the road from commercialization.
    http://1.usa.gov/17MBs5w

    "Retinal prosthesis

    Artificial vision for patients without any vision has only recently become a reality after years of research and investment. One effective approach uses a retinal prosthesis or phototransducing chip placed on the retinal surface. A digital camera placed in glasses can then transmit a stimulus to the intraocular chip, which electrically stimulates the retina in a pattern mimicking the image transmitted from the glasses, thereby giving the patient an electrically produced image to the ganglion cell layer of the retina. Preclinical trials in animal models have shown long-term stability.[12]

    The ARGUS II prosthesis (Second Sight Medical Products, Inc) used in these studies has now been shown to be effective for RP. "
    from: http://bit.ly/17MBt9A

    Also their references to people not interested in the Argus II seem a bit shadowy:

    " A woman whose husband William has macular degeneration" (and is apparently 90 years old)", indicated a hesitancy to TheStreetSweeper about the bionic eye, implantation surgery and device training."

    Another:
    " “I wouldn’t want to go for it,” another macular degeneration patient told TheStreetSweeper.

    She said she would prefer very, very limited sight over the risk of losing an eye. " -

    Two things, one who exactly are these people? Names and ages would help. Some clarification on who these people are would help. Also, I'm under the impression that limited sight is far different than no eyesight associated with RP. Why not ask people with no eyesight?

    I also didn't see any mention of the 14 iterations that have taken place to improve the software which has gotten better over time. Then again, this is an article written by a short seller.

    Always two sides to the coin I guess.

    Interesting nonetheless. Seems like there are a lot of passions on both sides of this one.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter: Strong Growth Worth The Price Of Admission [View article]
    User growth should benefit from opening up the home page to non subscribers. This is one of the great growth companies in the world. Must be nice to run a company that gets free advertising from every media person, website, TV show, news event, etc in the world. If people take a leap of faith with this one that they will build out a winning platform, the sky could be the limit. Will be fun to watch it over time.
    Feb 11, 2015. 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TravelCenters Of America: Undervalued Play On Stronger U.S. Economy [View article]
    I considered that possibility, but the performance of both stocks over multiple timeframes since the 09 bottom suggest otherwise.
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TravelCenters Of America: Undervalued Play On Stronger U.S. Economy [View article]
    I think Citigroup is being too conservative.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TravelCenters Of America: Undervalued Play On Stronger U.S. Economy [View article]
    Probably a little too early to say gas is going back up. But even if it does it's still down well over 50% from last year. TA isn't as tethered to the price of gas as the other gas station operators because about 85% of their fuel revenues comes from diesel fuel sales to trucking companies and of that amount, the majority lock into contracts that guarantee a certain profit margin for TA, whether oil is at $100 or $60. There is some variability to their fuel revenues but you won't see the crazy swings you would see with IMKTA, MUSA, etc which means its a more stable business.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Straightforward Business, Compelling Valuation And Investment Opportunity: Travel Centers Of America LLC [View article]
    In their most recent 10-k I'm seeing 81% of sales from fuel
    Jan 25, 2015. 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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