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Jonathan Verenger

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  • Qihoo 360 - Too Expensive And Too Many Risks [View article]
    Wow what a stock. I would still recommend steering clear of shorting QIHU. BIDU is a sleepier stock but one that in my opinion you can sleep soundly with.
    Jul 26 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    I keep reading about this bubble in all of the news outlets. I even heard its going to be a bigger problem than the mortgage bubble. Apparently it's the next big shoe to drop.
    Jul 15 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    Thank you bernie. I know a lot of people are down and out on this company and the PSL market. Hasn't been the first time I've seen sentiment like this.
    Jul 9 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    Thank you DKay.
    Jul 9 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    june - see my comments below in response to Henry Lee
    Jul 9 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Marblehead: A Play On Improving Student Loan Market [View article]
    I'd recommend looking at the default rates of public vs private debt. The problem that has arisen from the Govt backstopping the student loan market to the extent that they have is that loans were extended to far too many people. There is nothing wrong with educating people, but that comes with a cost and those with lower prospects of gaining employment, with poor credit history, or with no co-signors should have more expensive debt than others.

    One other thing, I'd recommend looking at the employment rates for graduates with 4 year degrees vs 2 year degrees. It is drastically different. Most writers in the media have quotas on the number of articles they need to pump out so the vast majority of the articles that you read are just regurgitated and have little research backing them.
    Jul 9 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself [View article]
    that may all be true but the company was a great investment at $6.
    Jul 6 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself [View article]
    One hope they might have is some type of pension reform which I think will come in 2014. It's speculation on my part but that could be a benefit to them. The bigger issue is not being able to grow the top line meaningfully and what the union will push for when the contract negotiations come up in 2015.

    Right now the stock has a fully diluted valuation of about $630 million. That makes the price to sales around 0.13. The standard valuation of the lower quality truckers is around 0.30 with ABFS being the lowest aside from YRCW. Given the above issues I think it is warranted that it trades at a discount to the others. My above assumptions in my article take into account almost 6% top line growth which seems dubious that this point. That's why I think it may have gotten ahead of itself. Will be fun to watch though. I'm always going to be partial to this one. The turnaround in my opinion was pretty obvious.
    Jun 28 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself [View article]
    Xtray - Thanks for the compliment. I'm still working on FMD but it looks like one of the best opportunities I have seen in a while. Good luck to you.
    Jun 26 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself [View article]
    Anytime. This has been one helluva ride for the stock. A solid turnaround coupled with a bull market turned this into a great return.
    Jun 26 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself [View article]
    They will be able to restructure their debt and push the repayment deadlines further out. The biggest concerns in my opinion are:
    (1) lack of top line growth
    (2) risk of giving back concessions to the union

    At $6 this risk was far less. At $28 it's a different story.
    Jun 26 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YRC Worldwide Has Gotten Ahead Of Itself [View article]
    Trolling for page views on old articles?
    Jun 26 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Rediff.com [View article]
    Clearly REDF hasn't panned out. I mentioned in an earlier post that you must honor mental stops. If something falls beyond your pain threshold then you need to abandon it regardless of your opinion of the stock. I firmly believe that. My pain threshold is typically 15% on smaller stocks so in this case I took the hit and have moved on. I'm sorry about the poor call on this one but for the time being I think it makes sense to stand on the sidelines.
    Jun 24 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Year Later: 9 Rallying Stocks Under $5 Attracting Hedge Funds [View article]
    Interesting list. I noticed the ones from last year tended to be predominantly biotechs which are inherently extremely volatile. 7 of the 10 were biotechs. 5 of 9 this year are biotechs. One of these in my opinion has the potential to be a huge winner.

    Your list returned 16.4% over the past year, slightly trailing the market's return of 19.3%.
    Jun 23 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aspen Group: How To Profit From The Federal Student Loan Collapse [View article]
    DRIx - I was going to post exactly what you said. The housing market is much much much much bigger than the student loan market. Really not even a comparison.

    One beneficiary of the inevitable downsizing of the government supported student loan market is the private student loan market, which has much lower default rates and will inevitably grow in size.
    Jun 19 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
348 Comments
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