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Jonathan Verenger  

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  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    C'mon you're gonna have to spend a little time doing research. Just a little.

    You do know that YELP did $25 Million in revenues in 2009 at the time they got a $500 Million buyout off from GOOG right (ie. 20X price to sales vs 12-13 right now)? Like I said I don't expect a buyout. YELP is aware of the opportunity ahead of them.
    May 23, 2014. 03:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    Jacob - Please help me with a few things:
    (1) Why are you applying the same growth rate to the bottom line as the top line after they turn a profit? See trajectory for PCLN, eBAY, Z, and others in their turn from negative to positive earnings and compare.
    (2) What is the addressable market for YELP?
    (3) What comparative advantages / disadvantages does YELP have over FB / GOOG in the local advertising market? Does a focused website have advantage over others?
    (4) What is the growth in paying business accounts? How does that compare to the addressable market?
    (5) What would financials look like after the addressable market has matured and ad spend as a % of total revenues drops?
    (6) Comparisons to Yellow Pages, Opentable, and Groupon would help since YELP appears to be disrupting all 3 of these businesses. How did their financials look in terms of SG&A as a total of revenues, gross margins, etc?

    I'm sure you can appreciate this; prospective investors could use a little more than just an opinion based article whose sole intent appears to just be to increase pageviews.
    May 23, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    Google tried to buy YELP out. You would have found that if you did more than 30 minutes of research:

    Stoppelman won't sell them. He knows they will be a mini-Google in 5 years.
    May 23, 2014. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    Let me guess, Google made a bad purchase of Youtube when it did. After all its "business model of spending $50 million in marketing to generate $45 million in revenues" was not sustainable.

    You might want to check out what Stoppelmans holdings are before commenting on share sales. Hint: He still owns >90% of his post IPO shares.

    I never implied I was a great investor. I've written about my fair share of duds (FMD, GPRC) to offset my studs (SNE, Z, NOK, IYT etc). I just think that Seeking Alpha's editorial guidelines have clearly declined. I used to like reading fact-based articles.
    May 23, 2014. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    There you go again, mentioning positive things about this stock. The horror! Please don't mention how the US Directory Advertising business was a $14.5 Billion annual business in 2007 at its peak and how YELPs revenues are currently only 2.5% of that. That would make you a pumper. And God forbid, please don't even talk about the addressable market opportunity for displacing OPEN and GRPN/living social, which is inevitable.

    And last of course, don't mention the 93% gross margins and what the top line of say $5 Billion in sales would result in when the business is mature and marketing / ad spending drops significantly as a share of revenues. If you do then you will truly be off your rocker :)
    May 23, 2014. 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    The nerve of you saying something bullish on this stock. What's next...are you going to mention that they have a huge untapped market of companies to poach from Yellow Pages, Open Table, and Groupon? The agony!
    May 23, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Yelp Ever Justify Its Ridiculous Valuation? [View article]
    I'm pretty surprised this opinion piece was approved by Seeking Alpha. Perhaps the publishing standards have gone down???
    May 23, 2014. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Terrific Reasons Why You Should Consider Yelp [View article]
    Just an FYI Jeremy Stoppelman (CEO) still retains over 90% of his shares at IPO.
    May 21, 2014. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Why We Are No Longer Bulls [View article]
    Hey Doug - Thanks for your viewpoint. Just curious if your views have changed from what you said on 11/12/13:

    "the balance sheet needs to be restructured with more equity infused and debt reduced - until that happens, and the share price shakes out, I can not get bulled up. From what I see capital needs are large for 2014. EF is going to need 100-125 mn for drilling. Haynesville is going to need 550+ (4 rigs w/BG, 3 w/o). Then Permian is ~90 and figure another 50 for Marcellus and corporate. That totals 800mn so I do not see how another JV is not announced and some equity deal, like a preferred or a convert bond. NG prices are not expected to meaningfully rise in the future, according to the futures curve, so I just don't see how they can progress and grow out of it with their existing debt load. "

    Seems like the two boxes you were looking for got checked off:

    (1) Equity raise, debt reduced
    (2) Nat Gas prices rose from 3.6 to 4.8 (+33%)
    May 6, 2014. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Travelzoo: An Undervalued Internet Company [View article]
    Yes it's hard to quantify exactly the comparisons but on the surface TZOO does a lousy job of monetization. That's a good thing if you're looking for an investment opportunity, though, as there is a good amount of upside potential. Valuation is cheap, it's still a top 10 travel destination and gets mistakenly grouped in with PCLN etc whereas they provide a bit of a niche.
    Apr 22, 2014. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Travelzoo: An Undervalued Internet Company [View article]
    FD: I purchased shares on Thursday and yesterday.

    The main reason I purchased shares in TZOO was the valuation relative to search traffic.

    It's a cheap asset in terms of total traffic to its sites. Here is their valuation relative to peers on this metric:

    PCLN: $1,145.64 per unique visitor
    EXPE: $375.20 per uv
    TRIP: $320.79 per uv
    OWW: $75.27 per uv
    TZOO: $37.14 per uv

    Their undervaluation has to do entirely with their low conversion rate. They get good traffic but can't convert it to buyers. The hotel booking platform should help. Right now people that can't travel on the date an offer is good for either can't book a stay on another date or have to click on a link to the providers site (which might not be mobile ready or which might not offer online booking) or call the provider directly. Either way, TZOO sees no revenues from this visitor.

    Read the bullet points in page 17 carefully:

    Think about these limitations to the current business model right now. I think there is significant upside longer term for TZOO if they can get it right. This is a significant amount of lost revenue from the traffic they get to their site. either they get it right or someone buys them for their traffic.

    Remember KYAK? They are the 8th most trafficked site just ahead of TZOO. They were purchased for $1.8 Billion by PCLN in November 2012 when all of the other players in this sector were trading at, on average, 1/2 of what they are now. So lets say KYAK would be worth $3.6 Billion right now standalone. They don't even generate 2X the traffic that TZOO does yet TZOO is worth less than 1/10th that valuation. All of this has to do with the way TZOO monetizes its traffic. So the bet is that they finally figure out how to do this, not that they capture additional market share. My argument isn't that they will take away market share...just that they can monetize their traffic better by offering a booking platform which is what they're in the process of rolling out for hotels. It will cannibalize some of their revenues but I think it's a much more sustainable model especially when you consider how mobile works.

    Anyway, best of luck. I think it's safe to start building out a position as there are still significant upside catalysts in play, the valuation is reasonable, and management is conservative (i.e., no share dilution + buybacks).
    Apr 22, 2014. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Transition To Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) [View article]
    Do you fear thy there is a bubble in high yield stocks?
    Mar 10, 2014. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    People will eventually realize at some point that their disgruntled attitude toward leaders and finance has prevented them from saving for their own retirement and taking advantage of returns that equities provide. it's ok to voice your opinion, but to do it at the detriment of your long term financial well-being is a horrible decision.
    Mar 10, 2014. 02:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will The Stock Market Go? [View article]
    James - Good article. Did you turn bullish? Haven't read you in 18 months or so. I believe you were looking for a recession then. Are you still looking for a recession?
    Feb 5, 2014. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For These Dry Shipping Stocks, The Ugly Crash Is Just Starting [View article]
    I was wondering that myself. I haven't been able to find anything stating that.
    Jan 28, 2014. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment