I will take a small position in case this fire still has some heat left, and then a larger position during the next pull back. Though I am some what objective if that if I who, was cynical, is now positive maybe that represents the time to sell and that might be the case.
There is still the risk that TSLA is actually a fad, though that was said of some apple products as well. There are also some serious questions such as, will people pay 80-100k for the model X which doesn't actually look as physically attractive as the model S. Also in 2014 will they release a "2014 Model S" and will it have upgrades?
There is still a 37% short float and I am sure some of them will hold on for awhile and this will cause volatility.
That said, I don't really care about any single product they product because they have something more valuable which is brand and IP. It doesn't matter what the truth is, everyone believes that Elon is saving the world and Tesla is part of that vision, that is a powerful idea.
10 Billion market cap isn't that high for a growth company like TSLA, 15-20 billion might be a bit high however.
Well I was probably the least negative of the cynics. Though I do stand by my original conclusion in this article and based on its performance I do think it is a good investment now.
"If Tesla is the next multi-billion dollar company, the stock has plenty of upwards potential and you don't have to worry about missing the boat. I recommend that any serious investors wait until, at the very least, Tesla can show even a small amount of profit for their endeavors."
Is This The Market Top? How To Best Position For A Sell-Off [View article]
I would be cautious to anyone trying to lead a top in this market. There are a couple of historical events going on that could skew all fundamentals. An abundant access to previously committed credit due to health care reform in the USA could cause a temporary and artificial continuance of this bull market. Further, a mutually assured global economic destruction is resulting in country governments both directly and indirectly infusing loaned (printed money) into each other's countries which results in stimulated economic activity but does not present typical inflationary acceleration.
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
Depending on the size of the back log there is no reason that Tesla can't continue to deliver surprise earnings which is the main driving forced behind literally any "growth" stock. Growth stocks defy gravity until such a point they start to disappoint in a way that matters to investors. Amazon is a good example of this, they impress in a way that keeps their stock elevated by increasing revenues.
There is literally a contraction in every growth stock. However betting on a contraction so early will completely devastate your portfolio. Though regardless of the stock you need to be on the look out for an exponential top or else you will end up like AAPL investors.
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
Also, the only company that is even doing it right now is Toxco, and their lithium-ion recycling plant was funded by the DOE. Also, I have to wonder who actually takes responsibility for insuring all those lithium ion batteries actually make their way to Toxco. If lithium-ion batteries find themselves in land fills, they are very toxic.
So theoretically if everyone switched to EVs (in the world) we would have greenhouse gas reduction of about 13%, and assuming only 1% of those lithium-ion batteries find themselves into landfills, we are going to create toxic water supplies.
Keep it to a whisper though, you don't want to let those Tesla owner's know that EVs won't actually stop global warming, will cause massive mining operations, and will mostly like result in massive amounts of ecosystems being poisoned.
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
It was sarcasm, regardless of TSLA's success, no one really wants to confront the issue that batteries are not actually as environmentally friendly as everyone would like to believe.
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
In regards to metals, the primary question is not how much is being mined now, that is irrelevant. The question is how much is available, and are the mining operations capable of scaling with the demand. If they are not capable of scaling with demand, EVs would have a much harder future because this pressure would cause the metal prices to rise substantially.
The one thing that kind of bothers me is when EV supporters talk about lithium ion batter being "recycled". The reality of this situation is that land fills are filled with batteries, they are horrible for the environment.
Battery recycling is energy-intensive, and it takes 6 to 10 times more energy to reclaim metals from recycled batteries as it does to produce the materials through other means, including mining.
So what are we going to do when we are all using EVs? Well we can either recycle them and completely offset the energy savings they are supposed to provide, or throw them out, both scenarios will ultimately be worse for the environment. The economics simply are not in place for lithiumion battery recycling.
There is only one company that can even really do it right now, and that is Toxco.
"Currently, there is little economic sense to recycle lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. Batteries contain only a small fraction of lithium carbonate as a percent of weight and are inexpensive compared to cobalt or nickel. However, if the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and their associated battery packs increase in the long term, recycling and reuse will help validate the tag, ‘green car’. "
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
Even if they could drive the value down to book value, they would still require 126 billion, and then in order to do the acquisition they would have to make a deal with the share holders because there is no way they could do it themselves without driving the price up.
I have to point out that a 50% retracing is very common, and it has to do with capital liquidation, there is a good reason for it besides being a mythical technical trend.
Part of this reason is a psychological one, once people lose over 50% they "give up" and just hold on to the stock, this results in a decrease in sellers, at this point the stock can literally only go up.
Brace Yourselves, A Shift Is Coming [View article]
Actually this means that the insurance companies will strive to keep all policies under 10,000 to get as many clients as possible. Now that there is government laws in place there will be little value in insurance companies raising their rates or keeping them the same.
You would rather have government regulation pushing a million people a year into insurance at $5000 a year, then 100,000 at $10,000. Additionally, in the regulation, though I don't the number off hand, the insurance companies are forced to refund a certain percentage of policy money collected that is not spent on healthcare. So you should see a decrease in your spending.
The purpose of the regulation is to essentially increase everyone's taxes in a round about way. The idea behind the regulation is that if you can get everyone to pay for insurance, everyone's rates will go down, based on how insurance works this should be true. Insurance companies with the largest amount of customers can offer the lower rates.
The problem is there is a lot of corruption, check out this article: http://buswk.co/102gvb7
Now back to the economic side of things, I am not sure how this will all work out in 3 years time, but I am predicting what I will call the "healthcare flash". It is going to be caused by essentially a redirection of capital from healthcare expenses out into the wild. A large amount of middle class people who get struck with serious illness end up mortgaging their home and using plastic. With the new health care regulation, even after you deduct the expense for policies, there will be a huge abundance of credit available that wasn't before.
Additionally, for yourself, if you're not actually using the healthcare policy, you could cancel it and get a new policy when you get sick because insurance companies can no longer reject you, but I think what you will find is that insurance policy costs will drop and you will be forced to get it.
Ya, it's not like Microsoft and Apple have completely different philosophies or anything. While we are at it can we get all the religions of the world to merge? I think that would solve a lot of problems.
Tesla Is Not Apple [View article]
There is still the risk that TSLA is actually a fad, though that was said of some apple products as well. There are also some serious questions such as, will people pay 80-100k for the model X which doesn't actually look as physically attractive as the model S. Also in 2014 will they release a "2014 Model S" and will it have upgrades?
There is still a 37% short float and I am sure some of them will hold on for awhile and this will cause volatility.
That said, I don't really care about any single product they product because they have something more valuable which is brand and IP. It doesn't matter what the truth is, everyone believes that Elon is saving the world and Tesla is part of that vision, that is a powerful idea.
10 Billion market cap isn't that high for a growth company like TSLA, 15-20 billion might be a bit high however.
Tesla Is Not Apple [View article]
"If Tesla is the next multi-billion dollar company, the stock has plenty of upwards potential and you don't have to worry about missing the boat. I recommend that any serious investors wait until, at the very least, Tesla can show even a small amount of profit for their endeavors."
Is This The Market Top? How To Best Position For A Sell-Off [View article]
http://bit.ly/XDATyv
Is This The Market Top? How To Best Position For A Sell-Off [View article]
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
There is literally a contraction in every growth stock. However betting on a contraction so early will completely devastate your portfolio. Though regardless of the stock you need to be on the look out for an exponential top or else you will end up like AAPL investors.
If I am not clear ::Do not try to lead the top::
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
So theoretically if everyone switched to EVs (in the world) we would have greenhouse gas reduction of about 13%, and assuming only 1% of those lithium-ion batteries find themselves into landfills, we are going to create toxic water supplies.
Keep it to a whisper though, you don't want to let those Tesla owner's know that EVs won't actually stop global warming, will cause massive mining operations, and will mostly like result in massive amounts of ecosystems being poisoned.
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety [View article]
The one thing that kind of bothers me is when EV supporters talk about lithium ion batter being "recycled". The reality of this situation is that land fills are filled with batteries, they are horrible for the environment.
Battery recycling is energy-intensive, and it takes 6 to 10 times more energy to reclaim metals from recycled batteries as it does to produce the materials through other means, including mining.
So what are we going to do when we are all using EVs? Well we can either recycle them and completely offset the energy savings they are supposed to provide, or throw them out, both scenarios will ultimately be worse for the environment. The economics simply are not in place for lithiumion battery recycling.
There is only one company that can even really do it right now, and that is Toxco.
"Currently, there is little economic sense to recycle lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. Batteries contain only a small fraction of lithium carbonate as a percent of weight and are inexpensive compared to cobalt or nickel. However, if the number of electric vehicles (EVs) and their associated battery packs increase in the long term, recycling and reuse will help validate the tag, ‘green car’. "
http://bit.ly/ZUL1YF
In summary, there is no economic benefit in recycling batteries, the only reason for companies to do it is for public relations.
Implications Of Apple Guidance [View article]
Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
I have to point out that a 50% retracing is very common, and it has to do with capital liquidation, there is a good reason for it besides being a mythical technical trend.
Part of this reason is a psychological one, once people lose over 50% they "give up" and just hold on to the stock, this results in a decrease in sellers, at this point the stock can literally only go up.
Brace Yourselves, A Shift Is Coming [View article]
Brace Yourselves, A Shift Is Coming [View article]
You would rather have government regulation pushing a million people a year into insurance at $5000 a year, then 100,000 at $10,000. Additionally, in the regulation, though I don't the number off hand, the insurance companies are forced to refund a certain percentage of policy money collected that is not spent on healthcare. So you should see a decrease in your spending.
The purpose of the regulation is to essentially increase everyone's taxes in a round about way. The idea behind the regulation is that if you can get everyone to pay for insurance, everyone's rates will go down, based on how insurance works this should be true. Insurance companies with the largest amount of customers can offer the lower rates.
The problem is there is a lot of corruption, check out this article:
http://buswk.co/102gvb7
Now back to the economic side of things, I am not sure how this will all work out in 3 years time, but I am predicting what I will call the "healthcare flash". It is going to be caused by essentially a redirection of capital from healthcare expenses out into the wild. A large amount of middle class people who get struck with serious illness end up mortgaging their home and using plastic. With the new health care regulation, even after you deduct the expense for policies, there will be a huge abundance of credit available that wasn't before.
Additionally, for yourself, if you're not actually using the healthcare policy, you could cancel it and get a new policy when you get sick because insurance companies can no longer reject you, but I think what you will find is that insurance policy costs will drop and you will be forced to get it.
Gold: A Bright Shining Lie? [View article]
Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]