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Jonathan Wagner

 
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  • Deciding When To Short Tesla - Part 4 [View article]
    Tesla is an incredibly high beta stock. Look how much it dropped based on a fire and the meh last earnings. With the announcement of the giga factory this gives it a lot of upwards potential but I don't think anyone should dismiss how volatile this stock can be.

    At the end of the day people are trading this stock based on an unknown future and small things can push it in either direction before its major correction I correctly predicted that their earnings would be the driving event and on earnings day the fire happened and the stock broke downwards until the end of december losing almost 35%.

    I agree that long prospects seem to better but I think longs need to be aware that it is going to be a bumpy ride.
    Feb 27, 2014. 05:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    If Tesla gets the funds for a giga factory, I would go long in a real way and ignore technicals for one simple reason and it has nothing to do with their actual product, it has everything to do with supply. Tesla would no longer be a car company, they would be a company that controls the world's entire supply of lithium ion batteries.

    Not only would they be able to produce cheaper cars than all the other OEMs, they would also be the primary supplier of batteries when all the other OEMs realized they have to switch over to cheap EVs to be competitive. Tesla would essentially be holding the keys to the kingdom.
    Feb 27, 2014. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    You have a bit of a sloppy cup and handle (william O'neils bread and butter) pattern going from October of last year to mid January this year, with the handle forming in the second part of January. The break out happened on february 10th when the high exceeded October's.

    However, it's not perfect, generally if people are making trading decisions based on technicals you would expect there to be a large surge of volume where people are coming to the same conclusions on said perceived patterns.

    The last 3 days in particular should raise alarm, a slight increase in price followed by volume halving each day, this is a small bear flag/pennant.

    So from a pure technical perspective I would say if you were following any pattern before this, you have missed the boat and you are probably going to be looking at some choppy waters for the next 2 weeks.

    If you were in before October 10th I would recommend stop lossing at just below 230 since if the price hits that gap it will most likely fill it.
    Feb 27, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    There are some innovations with the Model S, but the main innovation is they just use a crap ton of batteries. This issue has been talked about to ad nauseam.

    It's not that the other big car companies don't have the technical ability to stack a ton of batteries into a car, the issue is that they can't do it and maintain their margins.

    In this situation I believe people mistake OEM reluctance to OEM inability. I swear people actually think that the Model S is this magical black box and all the other auto companies are running around yelling and screaming because they can't reverse engineer their technology, give me a break. It's not a technology issue, it is a margin issue.

    The other OEMs have not only licensed their tech, but Daimler has right of first refusal (Daimler also has a director on Tesla's board).
    Feb 26, 2014. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    I can't speak to potential cars sales in the future, I am not psychic. However, you may not be aware that while Tesla doesn't have "dealers" they do have marketing venues in pretty much every major mall.

    Essentially it is a store that just has a Tesla vehicle in it. They rep inside are not allowed to actually sell to people but they do obviously talk the cars up.
    Feb 26, 2014. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    I am not a technical purist, if you review my articles I have some very deep fundamentals one. I did one in April where it was 95% fundamental analysis based on over all market direction.

    I generally adhere to the philosophy that all price fluctuations are affected by both technical and fundamental factors. At the end day it all comes down to one thing someone choosing to click the buy button or the sell button. People make this choice based on what they see in fundamentals, what they see in charts, or in some case no reason at all.

    Technical analysis tends to work in situations with abundant herd like mentality. Herd mentality is at the strongest when you have people trading on expectations of the future.
    Feb 26, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    I wasn't really trying to hit on the bigger picture in this particular article. It was more targeting the articles who have been using quasi technical/fundamental analysis to say Tesla is over priced.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    You do not need to purchase a model s to buy the stock.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    I swear, people don't read my article. I said more importantly that gas prices affect the consumer investor market. ::You do not need to purchase a model s to buy the stock::
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    I think you missed the "more importantly" part where I said gas prices affect the consumer investor market. You do not need to purchase or own a Tesla Model S to purchase the stock. There are many factors that go into why someone hits the buy button, I am proposing that gas prices are one of them.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    Trading volume as a percentage of shares outstanding. To put another way the market capitalization should be viewed within the context of a stock's beta.

    If you are comparing the market capitalization of high beta stock to that of low beta stocks you're going to get very skewed value propositions.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    Whenever I read things like this I am remind of this quote, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid."
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Considerations [View article]
    The reason there is so much trading volume is irrational exuberance, it is a trait of start-ups. I am not saying that its market capitalization is rational what I am saying is that it should not be used as a justification to short.

    There is not a single consistent example where market capitalization has been a good valuation of a company, just look at AMZN whose capitalization is through the roof.

    Also when there are less shares outstanding stocks have more volatility, this is just an indisputable fact. If you don't understand why just look at the level 2.
    Feb 26, 2014. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence Of Peaked Model S U.S. Deliveries Continues To Pile Up [View article]
    You are correct, I was wrong. To amend my previous statements then, the luxury market saturation is still an issue then, but they are targeting a different luxury market. Based on Tesla's most recent sales it doesn't appear that they are peaking.

    However, admittedly, if Tesla's gen3 is not going to be available within the next 3 years then they would be facing competition from other OEMs I am sure.
    Feb 21, 2014. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence Of Peaked Model S U.S. Deliveries Continues To Pile Up [View article]
    Not all companies are a start-up automotive company. Tesla's first product was a luxury car and their new product is their FIRST mass market vehicle. This isn't just another product in a long line of already existing products.

    If all companies had the same value proposition it would be pretty easy to become a trillionaire. Every company is different and needs to be considered uniquely.

    In terms of Tesla, those familiar with it, know of Elon's strategy from the start. Create a vehicle to show their is demand (roadster) then create a high end luxury vehicle (model-s) and then create a mass market vehicle (model-x). This is actually a plan that Elon outlined when he started Tesla not something he made up as he went along. So the Model-X represent the final step in his plan which is why it is so important.
    Feb 21, 2014. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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