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Jonathan Wagner

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  • Evidence Of Peaked Model S U.S. Deliveries Continues To Pile Up [View article]
    That is astoundingly bad logic. The two vehicles are at completely different price points and targeting completely different markets. Even a fresh marketing grad knows the difference between luxury markets and mass markets.

    None of this matter though, because you were totally wrong. New information has come out that shows that Tesla Model S has not peaked in terms of sales.
    Feb 21 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence Of Peaked Model S U.S. Deliveries Continues To Pile Up [View article]
    Author didn't even mention model X, people buy the future not the present. Sales of the Model S slowing down is irrelevant.
    Feb 14 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And The Ford Pinto: How Media Coverage Can Shape Perception And Derail Mass Market Adoption [View article]
    Everyone is missing the most important point (again). What matters for TSLA is what the fed report says regarding their vehicle. Whatever ends up being in that report is going to have a profound impact on this stock in either direction.
    Nov 26 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Long-Range BEVs Are An Economic, Energy And Emissions Abomination [View article]
    Thanks for the info, this is a bit unrelated, by why the sudden boom in wind? I imagine there are tax credit reasons but was there some kind of innovation I am not aware of?
    Nov 13 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    Seriously? 3 Fires in a 100 million miles driven or whatever is not an issue. Quite frankly RSA, this is stupid and I don't use this word lightly. Over the years all the OEMs have had to do massive recalls for things that were far more dangerous to the driver's of their vehicles.

    You are totally wrong, it has nothing to do with risk about fires, the only factor that has ever mattered is margins. If this is the conclusion you have drawn, you're not late to the party, you just walked out the door.

    Also Tesla's sales are still a fraction of a fraction of the sales of the big boys, they don't care about Tesla's luxury car, they do care about their potential affordable long range vehicle which is why GM announced they are going to build a long range $30,000 vehicle.
    Nov 13 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Long-Range BEVs Are An Economic, Energy And Emissions Abomination [View article]
    I have seen you write this argument several times, and it is an interesting one. However, what I haven't seen you write about is the rate at which the grid is shifting to clean energy. I live in an area where literally in the past several years empty fields have become completely filled with wind mills.

    However I understand the concept of scale, and I would like you to validate that the grid is not moving to clean energy as quickly as everyone thinks it is.

    Things like in the next 10 years X% of total power will be generated by clean sources or every year clean energy grid production only increases by X%.

    Everyone on the other side of this argument will say the same thing, your premise only works if the energy flowing into these batteries comes from dirty sources.
    Nov 13 08:58 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    It's all wrong because the statistics people are using don't adjust or account for all the days prior to the previous 2 months that zero Teslas caught fire.

    The cars are identical it is not like something changed. So how do you justify all the previous months where there wasn't fires.
    Nov 9 01:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    I am not really sure it is obviously a design flaw. If this was a design flaw you would expect these fires to be happening at some regular interval and they haven't been, there was no fires before the last two months.

    Everyone is talking about statistics and what not but what I haven't seen a single person say yet which is surprising given the amount of Tesla advocates is that this could be the result of the cluster illusion.

    http://bit.ly/1d9TSdP

    Essentially when you have random events sometimes they will "cluster" to make it look like there is a pattern when one doesn't actually exist. This is why some people think they have luck when they are gambling.
    Nov 9 01:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    The bubble has popped. Some fears about costs Tesla would incur was then made significantly worse by the fire. I think this was just really bad luck. To have an event occur like this so shortly after their earnings.

    So once all the smoke clears and the price drops off this company and its stock will become realistically valuated. Though I smell a turn coming in the market
    Nov 9 12:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    I have built some massive projects, and I as a solo developer was pretty much the mobile division of a publicly traded company for a bit.

    There is a couple reasons why this is so challenging. The first is that there are a lot of laws in place regarding storing medical data and you're not allowed to use the cloud. The second is you're dealing with a lot of non standardized data sources. This is actually a common problem in the USA in particular because they don't nationalize data sources. For instance in Canada there is a national MLS database where as in the USA every state and sometimes every municipality runs their own MLS.

    After it all trickles down past management what you would probably find is that the number of developers behind this relatively small and whoever they were, were not very good.

    They could of easily hired a Microsoft or a Google to do this but for whatever reason they didn't. It's really hard to make a prediction on when all these problems would be resolved without know how and what is built.

    It boggles my mind, some of the most complex websites were built by one or two kids in their garage, meanwhile a project with one hundred million can't be delivered properly.

    Give me a hundred million dollars, I could finish it for them.
    Oct 28 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    It is true that we live in modern times. First world nations don't have roaming armies of bandits and I think world wide American military presence can be scaled back drastically. I read one report that in some countries US troops make up something like 10% of their military and I think that is a bit absurd.

    Also I believe policing the world is one thing, but claiming to be police in order to full fill strategic logistical and political interests is the worst of all. I also thinks this contributes to the huge negative image of the USA. Where was the USA during the various genocides that were happening in the world? I am sure if there was oil involved the USA government wouldn't of mind stopping innocent people getting butchered with machetes. No one wants a police officer who chooses what is wrong or what is right based on what makes him the most money.
    Oct 27 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    John, you totally misunderstand me, and I think I am arguing to agree with you to be honest.

    I am going to use a very basic historical example of why military presence happens in the first place with super powers. When you become a super power your citizens end up trading with all types of people and when they are attacked they complain. As a government you have to defend YOUR people.

    When Rome place troops to protect their caravans they didn't only protect themselves they protected others, it was totally worth the cost. Spending 5 million in troops to defend a trade post is worth it if it generated billions for your country in trade.

    If you were to pull all american military presence from the world any local company that depends on imports/exports would have their future in jeopardy especially if they trade with a region that is unstable.

    Again I am not talking about beefing up military presence or declaring war (which you are trying to say is the same thing) I am talking about defending American interests.

    When you travel to another country or trade with another country do you really want no American support?
    Oct 27 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: At The Tipping Point, Keep Your Eyes On The Big Picture [View article]
    I think fidelity might of just revealed they think a bear is coming for the market in general. If you think a bear is coming the first thing you do is unload the stocks you think are most over valued.
    Oct 22 05:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    @John How does American military presence have anything to do with the Iraq war? The international american military presence did not start the war, it was the government. They declared war and than mobilized troops, you're trying to connect two unrelated things. Military presence IS not the same as declaring a war on a sovereign nation, it also comes with a different price tag.

    When I was in boxing I stayed in a hotel with a massive dude from Iraq, who accidentally knocked out the Canadian champ during a practice match. Anyways when I was there he told me that his brother got out right before Saddam gassed an entire village, this incident never made it to the news.

    He said, and I quote, "I am sad about 9/11, but I am so happy the USA is doing something about Saddam" I actually don't think the the Iraq war was right but I want to point out that this doesn't make Saddam any less evil.
    Oct 22 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    They don't pay taxes, but they do loan the USA credit to not only pay for the military they have in their countries, but also for the bailouts of financial industry.
    Oct 19 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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