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Jonathan Wagner  

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  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    You're misunderstanding me. You're right people don't search for apps on google, they search for information, and that is ultimately what matter most. I wish I could find the article, but there was a survey done that showed something like 98%+ of people downloaded apps, used them once, then never opened them again.

    What I am saying is that as the internet evolves to support mobile, I obviously can't guarantee this claim, the avenue for discovering what people are now calling mobile apps will be an integral experience to search. This should be curated by Google right now, and if they don't do it they are rather dumb.

    What I am forcasting is a fundamental change in how people discover apps. For instance in one scenario you might type in to an app store, "note taking" and this might bring up something like ever note. In the scenario I am forecasting you would go to google and type in, "I want to take notes" and evernote would come up as the first link and when you click on it, it would be a mobile web app.
    Dec 25, 2012. 01:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    The higher request for apps, are they for apps that the companies are turning around and selling? My point wasn't that companies aren't getting mobile apps developed, but if they do get apps developed its not so they can resell them in the Apple store for instance. If this isn't the case, please correct me, I am interested in this kind of information.

    The DPI issue is pretty annoying.

    I don't try to make predictions, I just run around screaming trying to figure out what is next. What I can say is that the rate at which new things are being implemented into web technologies is much much faster then it was in the past as we have gotten things like automatic browser updates. Also phones are getting better which can brute force through a lot of the restrictions.

    I have a very large flash project that gets a lot of traffic. The request for mobile is always going up so when I had to decided what I wanted to do, I decided to use web tech. This was economical as well because I don't want to either develop two separate code bases side by side or have to contract out to two different development firms. The whole experience has taught me that HTML5 is not as mature as everyone thinks it is quite yet, but it is getting there.

    I literally have no idea what mobile platform will be dominant in 10 years, for all I know it could be windows. The one thing I can say with almost complete certainty is the browser will be there, and it will be even better then it is now.

    Whatever form factors people build on top of the internet at some point will be rejected for the raw internet, IMO. AOL was a good example of this. There are studies out there that show a significant amount of apps are used once or twice, then never opened again.

    I think you are very optimistic to think 5 years to think HTML could bypass native, but I guess it depends on what we are talking about in general. Will HTML allow you to do an intensive 3D experience in 5 years on mobile? It's possible if hardware keeps getting better and the specs keep a reasonable pace.

    Bottom line is a mobile website will most likely out live any kind of platform or paradigm change in the market, and that is what I am concerned with.
    Dec 25, 2012. 01:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    I agree with a lot of your points. HTML5 is abused, I am actually in the process of moving a very large flash project over to canvas and JS. It is a massive hassle. For all the bashing flash received there was a certain amount of eloquence in not having to worry about browser compatibility.

    That said, if android devices continue to rise in market share, in handsets they are over 80% now, standards for mobile will be quickly hastened because Google can build in support for things more rapidly. The time for web technologies had decreased significantly over the years. If you go back 10 years ago it took forever for anything to happen, but with auto browser updates, this is becoming less of a case.

    Web GL is a big issue.
    Dec 25, 2012. 12:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    If you're an independent developer try to roll out a one off app, I would recommend targeting iOS first. Like I said in my article, you probably won't become a millionaire, but you probably will make more.
    Dec 25, 2012. 12:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    Depends on the screen size you're targeting.

    I don't want to get too technical, but one of the reasons that it takes less resources for iOS is familiarity and firms with years of experience. Remember the iPhone pretty much was the dominant smart phone, so most firms were forced to learn objective C.

    A lot of programmers I talk to regularly despise objective c, or if they do like it is because they work a ton in it. Typed languages are more preferable. This is also why iOS firms, right now, can demand a premium because it actually does take more skill to develop in objective C then a Java/C#/Python like language.
    Dec 25, 2012. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    It's an exponential curve, I have a friend who had a very successful iPhone app, and now runs a growing mobile development company and does a ton of apple stuff. He flat out told me that it is incredibly difficult for individual developers to make money now, it requires investing in advertising etc..
    Dec 25, 2012. 12:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    Facebook has serious issues because on PC a lot of their money is generated through flash games. Since flash isn't supported on mobile devices, they don't really have a choice right now.

    Part of the problem is that HTML5, contrary to the hype, is actually not really there yet. What is really needed is support for things like webGL on smart phones. Having javascript powered canvases is not enough.
    Dec 25, 2012. 12:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Android Vs. Apple Development [View article]
    I never use the word never when it comes to technology. You are right, there are certain things that require native development that you simply can't do using web tech. This is an undeniable truth right now, however, as things like webGL get better support on mobile devices, this gap will close.

    I was responsible for converting a publicly traded companies flash content to iPad, when the packager was made legal again by Apple. Even with the significant amount of modifications and improvements I made, the performance was horrible (this was iPad 1). I am fully aware of the limitations, however, unfortunately a significant amount of development is not intensive.
    Dec 25, 2012. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Tesla Pushback [View article]
    He has a lot of followers because I think he does have some interesting knowledge, and I think he has made decent calls in the past. He actually works in the energy storage space.

    I actually agree with pvenkate, however, I don't believe comparing battery startups to Tesla is a good example. Tesla is a finished consumer product where as battery companies are a single component.

    It sounds bad, but I think the green argument is over played with Tesla. At the end of the day people buy products because they want them, not because they think they are helping, though that doesn't hurt. People kept buying iPhones even when they knew underpaid workers at foxconn were killing themselves. Similarly the power that charges Teslas could come from burning wood and people would still buy them because what you can't see doesn't exist.
    Dec 24, 2012. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Tesla Pushback [View article]
    Now for your momentum argument, how can you be sure that the reservation rate will remain constant? The initial surge might only be from Tesla advocates. If I were to project any other product sales for a tech company the way Tesla advocates are project sales for Tesla people would consider me an idiot. For the first few months Apple product X sold this many per day, so we expect that to proceed for the next year, that doesn't make sense because of natural friction that happens in all market places.

    What would be more compelling is if, and I am not sure of this, the reservation amount is increasing in daily reservations this would offset friction.

    Steve, could you explain to me what happens to a companies stock if they are acquired? Whether it is 40% of the company, or a billion dollar deal, both are very positive. It's only not positive if you have some kind of emotional connection with Tesla.

    Also, do you know what the difference is between speculation and investment is?

    If you believe a company is going to sell 20,000 cars and they haven't yet, you're speculating. If they have sold 20,000 and you bank on what they have already sold, then you're investing. There is another article here on Seeking Alpha where they put much more work into it and they showed that Tesla at the very least, has to sell 8,000 cars per year to achieve gross profit margins that are reasonable.

    While I might put Tesla in the speculative part of my portfolio, I would not put it in my investment portfolio, because it is still speculative. Speculation is fun, and I enjoy it, because you can literally say anything.
    Dec 24, 2012. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Year-Over-Year Apple Q1 Comparison: Projections, Estimates, And Actual Results [View article]
    I am not a huge Apple supporter in terms of their brand, I own some of their mobile devices such as the iPad, but have never owned an iPhone, I am an android supporter.

    None of that matters though, because I think Apple is a great long term hold for at least the next 3 years if not longer, and this correction is a great way to pick up some value.
    Dec 24, 2012. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Tesla Pushback [View article]
    This is by far the best comment I have received yet and is light years ahead of, "it's amazing to drive." I also highly appreciate the fact that you understand what speculation is versus the people talking about potentials sales as facts.

    Since we are in the universe of speculation, I will give my thoughts. I am mostly bullish speculatively. The main reason for not being entirely bullish is taxes, and gas prices. Gas prices seem to be testing lows and I think there is a good chance they will break down. Next, I am not sure if the alternative vehicle tax credits will persist beyond the fiscal cliff.

    Tesla seems to have a lot of positive support and if they can scale up production they most likely will receive additional rounds. Every round they get will sustain them to what will ultimately be an acquisition.

    Anyone who thinks that Elon would not accept that is a bit foolish. He was interested in talking with Toyota a year ago and even announced it. I wouldn't be surprised if the conversations were still happening and a lot of what we are witnessing is posturing. Toyota invested twice in them twice and they then used that money to buy a factory from Toyota which will know be responsible for producing the Model S, it seems utterly counter intuitive to believe that Toyota would sell to a competitor they thought was a serious risk, this relationship is much deeper.

    EVs will become even more popular as we witness the further decentralization of power through solar (something that is already happening). Self charging EVs being the dream, but probably still a bit unrealistic at this phase.

    I would throw Tesla into my speculative portion of my portfolio, but not until the next year.
    Dec 24, 2012. 03:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Tesla Pushback [View article]
    Thanks for your response. While I might show a flare for the dramatics it's an emphasis to get conversation going. I'm not actually a Tesla bear, but I am not bullish either. I am actually bullish on them as a company despite any criticisms I might have because it is only when you have high quality products on the market that you can stimulate a sector through greed.

    There are certain informational elements that I personally think will play into Tesla's success that I don't have access to. I don't know where gas prices will be in six months, I personally believe this is important. I also ,admittedly, don't understand the future tax implications on Tesla or Consumers after the fiscal cliff. Further, I don't understand the actual commercial agreements between Tesla and TM, an important relationship that a lot of Tesla Bulls claim is merely a superficial over the counter type relationship. I also don't have a good understanding of their suppliers and if any of them are highly susceptible to disruption which could lead to significant delays in production.

    If Tesla was a massive company with a lot of reserves this wouldn't be a concern.
    Dec 24, 2012. 02:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Tesla Pushback [View article]
    In all honesty, I am not sure the particulars of battery development. John Petersen, who is an outspoken critic of Tesla, who pretty much works exclusively in his space professionally, believes that from the eureka moment to possible production can take a decade plus.

    If you have some kind of information on this, I would be very interested to read such articles.
    Dec 24, 2012. 02:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Tesla Pushback [View article]
    Alexia, it was Musk who initially announced he was in talks for a billion a year ago.

    This was from his own mouth, this wasn't a rumor this was him who said he was considering it. Clearly you don't know Musk as well as you think you do.
    Dec 24, 2012. 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment