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Jonathan Wagner

 
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  • Tesla: The Show's Over Folks, Sell While You Can - Or, Maybe Not? [View article]
    I agree it is a high flyer, but the author has made several mistakes. Firstly he decided to use a trend line that was particularly steep to justify his bubble popping thesis, he cut the tip of the bottom in the center of his trend.

    The second mistake he made is not discussing this bubble breaking in the context of the market. Even if his trend was accurate, a bubble popping failure is more likely in the government supported market we are in. A stock like TSLA collapsing under a strong market is unlikely regardless of any over pricing that may be occurring.

    Thirdly the bubble popping is not supported by strong volume. If this were a true popping you would expect a rush with volume, instead the volume has been declining, not to mention the drop was not as significant as it could of been. The fire was not the result of any defect but the result of an arc like metal object that was hit in the wrong way spiking the car with an incredible amount of force that in a traditional ICE car could of either stabbed the occupant or caused a complete car explosion.

    Lastly it appears that TSLA in general like the SMA 50 as a support line, if you're going to talk about bubble popping, this line should not be dismissed.

    So if this is a bubble popping, it certainly isn't traditional and doesn't really have the volume or force to back it up. If you back track half way through the trend to date, look at the downward spike and that volume which was almost twice that of fire incident day, and that didn't cause a pop, so I am skeptical this is anything more than a small profit taking correction.
    Oct 14, 2013. 08:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yesterday's Sell-Off Was Unwarranted [View article]
    Elon sent out an email, essentially it was an arc like object that leveraged up and punctured a hole through the armor.
    Oct 4, 2013. 09:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Or Short Tesla [View article]
    It might, it really depends on access to capital. Broadly people are concerned with their total capital gain, not necessarily the actual valuations of the company. I agree with pvenkate, but I also think that the common logic is a bit idealistic.

    If a company is worth $10,000 and you have 10,000 people who each think they can make 10% the price becomes some what irrelevant to the expectation of the investors. You have to remember at all time the stock market is a secondary market. This means that the majority of the transactions occur between individuals and not with the company the stock actually represents.

    Transactions that actually occur between individuals and companies include things like buy backs and dividends.

    To put it another way, how much a company's net revenue is linked to stock price motion is based on trades that have nothing to do with the company.

    All price motion, without exception, is affected by access to capital. Access to capital overrides all fundamentals of a company. A company can be soaring but if you don't have a job, you will most likely liquidate your positions which will cause downward pressure on the stock price. This is why the stock market is very loosely connected to the economy, and also why it is usually a leading indicator to the economy because of its liquidity.

    This is made further complicated by margin which can exasperate price motion significantly.
    Oct 4, 2013. 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    People who play games on phones are usually a completely different market than console game players. I know there was a bunch of Apple advocates who made these claims in the past but honestly they were flat out wrong because they didn't understand the game world.

    Now theoretically if the phone could actually compete at a console level it would need to have the capability of hooking up to a TV screen and having multiple controllers. While I think this is a cool idea, this is a fantasy land right now.
    Oct 3, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yesterday's Sell-Off Was Unwarranted [View article]
    @randy I actually just read the report, what makes me nervous is this line.

    "The Vehicle's driver stated that he had struck some kind of object on the freeway. He state that he then began to have problems with the vehicle and pulled off the freeway"

    He hit something and continued driving which means whatever he hit did not stay stuck under the car. So what exactly was this "debris"?

    As we all know the entire bottom of the Model S is batteries, this might make the likely hood of this event becoming fairly common.
    Oct 3, 2013. 02:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    "Mobile Desktop Experience" is like building a mini-cooper that can transport several tonnes of cement on the inside. Just because it can do it doesn't make it remotely useful.

    The growth of the mobile market is because the majority of users are content consumers and not content creators. Content consumers don't need massive amounts of power, and like you have identified, "Most Android users are content with their even older 32-bit versions of Android."

    If you want to talk about security, let's talk about how the US military chose a modified version of android because their software stack is open and allows for the creation of custom encryption protocols that would be very difficult to implement in Apple's ecosystem.

    http://bit.ly/1187VxH
    Oct 3, 2013. 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    The major problem is that for the most part CPU chips have hit sort of a ceiling, this isn't the past, the A7 doesn't leap frog the competition.

    We're talking about smart phones, not pcs. How much CPU power is really required to type in a number. I can tell you that the differences between android and iOS are very minor and anyone who thinks differently is either delusion or a zealot (either side). These kind of arguments were some what valid when Android first launched, but now they are some what irrelevant. Besides the physical size difference between my iPad and Nexus, there really isn't much else.

    Now this might be a brilliant play in terms of profitability, which will still need to be seen, but it is completely irrational to believe that this will help Apple reclaim their dominant market share in terms of smart phones.
    Oct 3, 2013. 02:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yesterday's Sell-Off Was Unwarranted [View article]
    I am personally interested how a major collision still allowed the vehicle to be pulled over. I am curious about the nature of the accident.

    I personally would not underplay any event when it comes to Tesla even if it appears minor. This stock is soaring at bubble like speeds that even Elon thinks are crazy. Hype can be a horrible thing, and anything that takes the "gleam" off could do some good damage.

    The author might be correct, this might be just a knee jerk reaction that will be settled tomorrow, or it might give a lot of people a reason not to stay in the stock. Tomorrow's volume is what will be really important, if it climbs above today's, it could be a very strong bear signal.
    Oct 3, 2013. 01:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Tesla Motors: Valuation Is Unsustainable, Premium To Peers Is Unjustified [View article]
    There is a large difference between taking a long late position, and taking a short position in a stock that -appears- to be bubbling. I say appears because for every stock that behaves how it is supposed to relative to valuations, you have stocks that confuse everyone like AMZN.

    Anyone who thinks there is a direct correlation between a stock price and a company is ignorant, period. The stock market is a secondary market, and we have hundreds of years of historical proof that stocks can operate independently of their underlying fundamentals for a long duration of time, the internet bubble is one such example.

    The author is misleading everyone, he is not "shorting" he is doing bearish option plays which is not the same thing. Capitalizing on excessive premiums in the call option market IS NOT the same as taking a short position directly in a stock. The author is making money not by being a true bear but by taking advantage of volatility differentials. This is not to say this isn't intelligent or sophisticated, but it is highly deceptive.

    The author is rambling on about things that are 2-3 years in the future while making trades that most likely won't be longer than the next several months.
    Sep 28, 2013. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Tesla Motors: Valuation Is Unsustainable, Premium To Peers Is Unjustified [View article]
    I actually agree with most of your assessment, but let me just say that if you are short right now, you're nuts.

    There is ZERO way you can know how much fuel is left in this machine. I always like pointing to the internet bubble because half way up there were people that thought like you, "too fast, too quick". They were right, but they lost everything because they were trying to lead the top.

    So when they beat expectations November 4th, which it looks like they are going to, what do you think is going to happen? You can't actually think the stock is going to adjust downwards.

    You should at least wait for solid break downwards before hopping in, otherwise you're trying to lead a top and could get slaughtered.
    Sep 27, 2013. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Tesla Motors: Valuation Is Unsustainable, Premium To Peers Is Unjustified [View article]
    Let me give a good metaphor for not only this example but pretty much any sky rocketing stock.

    The train is currently moving pretty quickly, we all know at some point it is going to run out of fuel, it simply has to. I can't really tell you exactly how much fuel it has, or really even how fast it is going. When the train does run out of fuel its inertia will probably allow it to go a bit further before stopping.

    With all the said, I think you should all stand on the tracks staring at the oncoming train, and if it happens to stop, you will probably make some good money.

    So Mr. Author, do you know how much fuel the train actually has, or are you just saying the equivalent of "it will rain." If you do know, tell me where I can get that crystal ball.
    Sep 25, 2013. 03:18 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    I think you're right. If GM actually does want to do this on a massive scale in any kind of timely manner they would most likely have to build out their battery production themselves. Also an interesting article a friend sent over to me today.

    http://bit.ly/18M6h2Z
    Sep 21, 2013. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    The real question is if GM actually thought this was a near reality, why would they announce it?

    Why would you give away your play in this instance unless you were bluffing? Now I firmly believe that they (GM) -wants- to do it, and I bet they are going to actually try and do it, but this is obviously a play to try and slow down Tesla's momentum.

    GM is massive compared to Tesla in terms of production, why would such a big company announce they were going to take on such a smaller up start unless they felt some kind of threat?

    In terms of Tesla, this is both good and bad. GM is essentially acknowledging Tesla is a threat, great, except GM is acknowledging them as a threat, which means they are going to start throwing serious resources into R&D. Up to this point the common belief was that Tesla wouldn't show up on the radar of these big companies and that even if it did, Tesla would be ignored because of the margin issues.

    Now you have GM acknowledging Tesla and saying they want to take them on directly? This could have a profound impact on the long term viability of the company. I am sure a lot of people assumed that Tesla would already be in the mass market before this would happen.
    Sep 21, 2013. 02:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    This might sound odd, but I prefer to only write about stocks that I don't own. When I own stocks my mind set changes about them, I become far less objective. The best and most accurate calls I have ever made were when I didn't hold the stocks.

    I do hold a theoretical portfolio where I hold positions in the stocks I write about, but there is no real reason in disclosing that because play money doesn't mean that much to people. If you're interested I went 'long' in Tesla on May 20th.
    Sep 21, 2013. 02:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    Well this was Musk's intention all along, he wants the big producers to create long range EVs. Though I wonder if GM is actually capable on delivering on this bluff, I have no idea. Though this is a clear indicator that GM is now seriously look at long range EVs.

    If GM can deliver on this bluff, TSLA's stock may break in price, once it does I have a feeling Daimler might step in and the world might return to GM vs Daimler.

    I am going to hold to my initial assessment mostly because of the info with the Fed. I think this move by GM has brought even further awareness to Tesla and shows that Tesla has been on the right track, so I think there is still upward price motion regardless of the inflated price point.
    Sep 19, 2013. 12:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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