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Jonathan Wagner

 
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  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    He spends a significant amount of time talking about batteries and he has been involved closely with the industry and works inside of it. I by no means support his anti-Tesla sentiment, but I don't think he an idiot. Inability to make good investment decisions does not mean you lack the capability of intelligent though.

    I understand he quite polarizing, but he does have a lot if interesting information that he digs up regardless. That is why he has so many followers.
    Sep 14, 2013. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    People making the wrong price choices based on price action is universal. I was talking technically.
    Sep 14, 2013. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    10 years+ and profitable.
    Sep 14, 2013. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    I am not really sure why we need to stop at $400, why not $5000? When you're making money you will always feel like it can't stop, but it always does.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    TSLA is about 5 years shy of becoming a Ben Graham target.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    Also betting against a start-up with sales growth is always a bad idea, regardless of what the other metrics might be.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:55 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    A stock and a company are not the same, a stock can go down even if a company never changes. Obviously I believe there is upwards movement ahead, but you should still be cautious because you don't want to end up like AAPL investors at $700. Even Elon thinks the stock is over priced.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    Tesla is not an established company, going for GM will decrease your over all Alpha but it would provide more security. There is definitely some mouth foaming going on which is why I don't recommend it if you weren't already in.

    It was very similar to AAPL when it was hitting $700 and people were talking about it going to $1000. I honestly don't think the run-up is finished yet, I could be wrong, but I don't think it is peaking. I think there is money to be made but one would have to be very aggressive with their stop losing.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Sell Or Short Tesla [View article]
    The weekly chart tells a different story than the daily. The weekly looks parabolic but the daily not so much. Shorting a parabolic curve can be dangerous. Also I am pretty confident that Tesla will announce sales growth on November 4th and I think there needs to be a pause but this pattern could continue past that.
    Sep 13, 2013. 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    I am curious, do you have any information or insight in the coming FED moves or are you just speculating?
    Sep 13, 2013. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    @tombo I agree, however, I think there is an underestimation of the hope. This isn't a startup with a social app this is car maker that is actually selling cars. You can't really dismiss that.

    Currently they are the only company creating long range EVs. I think it is a little unfair to compare a Tesla to every other car, that argument was used against iPhone as well. You can come up with a lot of arguments for failure but at the end of the day it is an exceptional car.

    I honestly don't know the long term forecast for TSLA, what I am pretty confident of though is there is going to be a decent move in the coming month.

    The reason for this is that when everyone pretty much knew TSLA was going to declare profitability you still had bears saying that the company was going to fail, then they declared profitability and the stock soared. This was independent of every nay sayer who was talking about the same stuff you are saying right now.

    The Norway article was a hint that their sales are going to be strong over previous quarter. People are going to be afraid of making the same mistake twice.

    Complexity does not necessarily translate into stock price motion, it is what you know not how much you know. The TSLA bears seem to be obsessed with how much they know. They will ramble on about future battery restraints, margins, competitors, and literally none of that has the potential of affecting their quarter over quarter physical car sales in the near future.
    Sep 13, 2013. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    @tombo if you weren't in TSLA before now, I wouldn't recommend investing now. There will be a break, there has to be. However, if you have been sitting on TSLA for awhile then you are in different situation.

    @Tippydog "They need to beat every quarter, and raise estimates every quarter, and the analysts need to move up estimates every quarter."

    I think this is possible for the next 2-3 quarters, they're really not doing that much volume in terms of sales. There was a recent article that the Model S is now the #1 selling car in Norway, but I still think these are a drop in the bucket in relationship to their current size as a company.

    I am not sure if I agree with you with the assumption that every single variable needs to be aligned for the stock motion to rise. You can't actually believe this, just look at Amazon. The only variable that has ever mattered was sales growth.

    To me it seems like you are being violently bearish. TSLA has to fail because if 1 of these 10 things is not right there will be a catastrophic failure. I am not dismissing that possibility but you have to be aware of how freakishly pessimistic that is. Imagine I said the opposite. I believe company XYZ is going to succeed because all it needs is 1 out of 10 things to be better than expected. I am pretty sure you would think I am nuts.

    I honestly think the only thing that will matter is physical car sales growth at least for the next couple quarters.

    The options are being priced over the average acceleration of the last 30 days but also something else. Do this, find the day over day close change todaysClose/yesterdays... and then do a 15 day SMA on that data. Despite consolidating prices, the daily average motion is staying above 0% and it is currently hovering at a pretty strong 2 month support line. This pattern is also visible on a 30 day as well. There is a good chance of a sharp momentum increase leading up to november 4th.
    Sep 13, 2013. 12:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    Tippy, do you believe that if the bull market holds and TSLA continues to get quarter over quarter sales growth that the price of TSLA will actually break?

    When was the last time you saw this headline during a bull market, "Start up company has sales growth but stock price drops as share holders realize its over valuation?"

    CISCO has something like 1000x P/E ratio before it went on to gain nearly 11,000%. Now the key here is "bull market".

    This is a stock that had a massive short percentage and all those people got killed. I have looked at a lot of charts and I have never seen a chart like this start to sky dive during a bull market.

    Will TSLA take over the entire automotive industry? Likely not, but that is what a lot of the people in this stock think. Further there is the added belief that if TSLA gets enough traction, the other automakers will "scramble" and by scramble I mean license their technology. Also I have talked about this at length before but it is not a TSLA vs Other scenario. This is a fallacious simple belief some TSLA investors think that is totally wrong. The other large car companies have not only funded TSLA in the past, but they sit on TSLA's board. This is not something enemies do.

    This is the largest misconception among TSLA bears in my opinion the whole, "TSLA can easily be wiped off the planet by XYZ" except that is not what would happen, that is the least likely scenario. The more likely scenarios are mergers, acquisitions, and large licensing deals. Though even if none of these things happen, the belief in them is a strong motivator.

    Quarter over quarter car sales will create catalyst events for upwards movement but the biggest gains for them as a company might have nothing to do with car sales at all.

    During the internet bubble you had stocks get insane market capitalization with zero revenues, it wasn't rational. It would be a huge to massive mistake to assume that TSLA with all the zeal behind it is suddenly the first stock that starts behaving rationally.
    Sep 12, 2013. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    I am not talking about market cap, I am talking about company size. I am firm believer in event driven markets but I do not dismiss value seeking.

    It is a huge mistake to assume rationality when it comes to the market IMO when it comes to start-up companies. Comparing a start-up to a large company is kind of Apple's and oranges. It's perfectly possibly for Tesla's market cap to actually exceed Ford's before breaking.
    Sep 11, 2013. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    last time I checked, the battery in a TSLA model s costs about 10k-15k (not sure what the current estimates). There is no way an EV at 10k would be competitive because the market has already proven there is no demand for short distance EVs.

    There is no way anyone can do any kind of realistic valuation on TSLA because there is so much up in the air right now regarding sales potential, they have barely touched foreign markets.

    The market isn't going to care about valuations with Tesla, they are only going to care about physical car sales. For instance, if suddenly there is a 5-10% drop in quarter over quarter Tesla sales, this could cause a mass panic and you will start seeing articles coming out on SA about TSLA reaching their "luxury saturation point".

    However, as long as their physical car sales numbers have growth, the stock will have upwards motion not withstanding bear markets etc..

    Also on a side note, I am seeing Teslas in middle class neighborhoods, I thought this was odd but this could mean that this might be a luxury vehicle the middle class is allocating money towards and if that is the case, that is a completely new precedent.
    Sep 6, 2013. 12:12 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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