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Jonathan Wagner

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  • Why Long-Range BEVs Are An Economic, Energy And Emissions Abomination [View article]
    I have seen you write this argument several times, and it is an interesting one. However, what I haven't seen you write about is the rate at which the grid is shifting to clean energy. I live in an area where literally in the past several years empty fields have become completely filled with wind mills.

    However I understand the concept of scale, and I would like you to validate that the grid is not moving to clean energy as quickly as everyone thinks it is.

    Things like in the next 10 years X% of total power will be generated by clean sources or every year clean energy grid production only increases by X%.

    Everyone on the other side of this argument will say the same thing, your premise only works if the energy flowing into these batteries comes from dirty sources.
    Nov 13 08:58 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    last time I checked, the battery in a TSLA model s costs about 10k-15k (not sure what the current estimates). There is no way an EV at 10k would be competitive because the market has already proven there is no demand for short distance EVs.

    There is no way anyone can do any kind of realistic valuation on TSLA because there is so much up in the air right now regarding sales potential, they have barely touched foreign markets.

    The market isn't going to care about valuations with Tesla, they are only going to care about physical car sales. For instance, if suddenly there is a 5-10% drop in quarter over quarter Tesla sales, this could cause a mass panic and you will start seeing articles coming out on SA about TSLA reaching their "luxury saturation point".

    However, as long as their physical car sales numbers have growth, the stock will have upwards motion not withstanding bear markets etc..

    Also on a side note, I am seeing Teslas in middle class neighborhoods, I thought this was odd but this could mean that this might be a luxury vehicle the middle class is allocating money towards and if that is the case, that is a completely new precedent.
    Sep 6 12:12 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Is It Time To Take Partial Profits? [View article]
    I think it would be a massive mistake to trim TSLA holdings. Of course your other online properties are performing better, but that is because online companies have more beta in general.

    I guess it depends on your trading strategy, but TSLA will probably have upward growth until such time that their -sales- plateau. The moment TSLA becomes boring it will be compared to other car manufactures and its price will adjust accordingly.

    The main problem with betting against TSLA is that comparatively they are tiny, and tiny things have much more potential to grown than large elephants stocks. The days of "can Tesla sell cars" are over, it is now "how many can they sell"?
    Sep 6 12:02 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: As Competition Intensifies, Its Valuation Is Fraught With Risk [View article]
    Tesla has one of the most advanced car manufacturing facilities in the world, I would recommend you do your research into their factory, there was a pretty good documentary on it.

    Saying that a technology company will eventually get competition and fall out of favor is like saying it will rain. If that is your line of thinking you should never invest in any company ever because everything ultimately gets competition.
    Sep 17 01:00 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All That Matters With Tesla [View article]
    Also betting against a start-up with sales growth is always a bad idea, regardless of what the other metrics might be.
    Sep 13 01:55 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciding When To Short Tesla - Part 4 [View article]
    Tesla is an incredibly high beta stock. Look how much it dropped based on a fire and the meh last earnings. With the announcement of the giga factory this gives it a lot of upwards potential but I don't think anyone should dismiss how volatile this stock can be.

    At the end of the day people are trading this stock based on an unknown future and small things can push it in either direction before its major correction I correctly predicted that their earnings would be the driving event and on earnings day the fire happened and the stock broke downwards until the end of december losing almost 35%.

    I agree that long prospects seem to better but I think longs need to be aware that it is going to be a bumpy ride.
    Feb 27 05:16 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    It's all wrong because the statistics people are using don't adjust or account for all the days prior to the previous 2 months that zero Teslas caught fire.

    The cars are identical it is not like something changed. So how do you justify all the previous months where there wasn't fires.
    Nov 9 01:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Tesla Motors: Valuation Is Unsustainable, Premium To Peers Is Unjustified [View article]
    Let me give a good metaphor for not only this example but pretty much any sky rocketing stock.

    The train is currently moving pretty quickly, we all know at some point it is going to run out of fuel, it simply has to. I can't really tell you exactly how much fuel it has, or really even how fast it is going. When the train does run out of fuel its inertia will probably allow it to go a bit further before stopping.

    With all the said, I think you should all stand on the tracks staring at the oncoming train, and if it happens to stop, you will probably make some good money.

    So Mr. Author, do you know how much fuel the train actually has, or are you just saying the equivalent of "it will rain." If you do know, tell me where I can get that crystal ball.
    Sep 25 03:18 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications Of Apple Guidance [View article]
    A rising stock price.
    Apr 23 11:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: I've Taken A Position [View article]
    I am not really sure it is obviously a design flaw. If this was a design flaw you would expect these fires to be happening at some regular interval and they haven't been, there was no fires before the last two months.

    Everyone is talking about statistics and what not but what I haven't seen a single person say yet which is surprising given the amount of Tesla advocates is that this could be the result of the cluster illusion.

    http://bit.ly/1d9TSdP

    Essentially when you have random events sometimes they will "cluster" to make it look like there is a pattern when one doesn't actually exist. This is why some people think they have luck when they are gambling.
    Nov 9 01:02 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secret Of Warren Buffett's Alpha [View article]
    Tony, there is a massive difference between a mutual fund under performing the S&P and a mutual fund losing money.

    The reason berkshire has been under performing for the last 3 years is because the market has been in a some what strong up trend for the last 3 years. Buffet by his own admission has said that his mutual fund will under perform in strong upward years. This is simply understood because he invests in low beta stocks. Low beta stocks under perform in strong bull markets and over perform (positively) in bear markets. The net result is a strong positive Alpha (performance in relationship to the index) over the long term.

    Essentially when the market is doing really well, everyone bashes berkshire, and the moment the market enters a bear market it suddenly becomes a hero again. During the internet bubble you had mutual fund managers saying what you said verbatim. The world is changed, the market is different, if you're value investing you're missing the boat. One successful mutual fund manager even bashed Benjamin Graham saying he was no long relevant.

    Those managers are gone now. You see, you think the market has changed, but it hasn't, it has been the same for the last 40 years. The reason it doesn't change is because people like yourself continue to make the same erroneous mistakes over and over again. It is some what ironic, the reason the market doesn't change is because everyone keeps saying it has changed.
    Jan 11 03:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kiss Goodbye To The Hidden Risk Of Stock Picking [View article]
    In order for this to work, you would need to actually implement some form of basic evaluation for the stock picking. For instance, instead of a random selection for the stock picking, pick stocks that have the lowest price/book with growing EPS, and then liquidate them at a random appreciation of >25% or hold.

    Otherwise you're just doing two forms of random walk based on hindsight trends. The more regularly traded stocks will always make more money in that scenario.
    Dec 20 04:05 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: As Competition Intensifies, Its Valuation Is Fraught With Risk [View article]
    Nope, Tesla's factory doesn't use production lines for primary construction. It uses several robot arms that change tools as it builds the car, the car is essentially built in one place without moving.

    http://bit.ly/1emTjAW
    Sep 17 06:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Show's Over Folks, Sell While You Can - Or, Maybe Not? [View article]
    I agree it is a high flyer, but the author has made several mistakes. Firstly he decided to use a trend line that was particularly steep to justify his bubble popping thesis, he cut the tip of the bottom in the center of his trend.

    The second mistake he made is not discussing this bubble breaking in the context of the market. Even if his trend was accurate, a bubble popping failure is more likely in the government supported market we are in. A stock like TSLA collapsing under a strong market is unlikely regardless of any over pricing that may be occurring.

    Thirdly the bubble popping is not supported by strong volume. If this were a true popping you would expect a rush with volume, instead the volume has been declining, not to mention the drop was not as significant as it could of been. The fire was not the result of any defect but the result of an arc like metal object that was hit in the wrong way spiking the car with an incredible amount of force that in a traditional ICE car could of either stabbed the occupant or caused a complete car explosion.

    Lastly it appears that TSLA in general like the SMA 50 as a support line, if you're going to talk about bubble popping, this line should not be dismissed.

    So if this is a bubble popping, it certainly isn't traditional and doesn't really have the volume or force to back it up. If you back track half way through the trend to date, look at the downward spike and that volume which was almost twice that of fire incident day, and that didn't cause a pop, so I am skeptical this is anything more than a small profit taking correction.
    Oct 14 08:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Short For Tesla Shorts? [View article]
    The only way Tesla is going to go away now is they get acquired, but I don't think that is going to happen. I am not sure why any short would stay in when they knew Tesla was going to turn a profit.

    I was critical of Tesla, but I change my opinion with new information, but even before Tesla reported a profit I said it was crazy to short it.

    If you lack the faculty to long TSLA, and you simply must short, the opportunity will only come at a missed profit forecast, just like any other profitable company. This is super dangerous though because it is VERY easy for small companies to increase their profit/revenue. Shorting a profitable growth company is dangerous unless you can forecast a significant slow down.

    The economy seems to be getting stronger and this means a lot of people might take that new financing product and this could cause Tesla's revenue to increase enough to pass profit forecasts.
    Apr 16 06:50 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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