Seeking Alpha

Jonathan Wagner

 
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  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    People who play games on phones are usually a completely different market than console game players. I know there was a bunch of Apple advocates who made these claims in the past but honestly they were flat out wrong because they didn't understand the game world.

    Now theoretically if the phone could actually compete at a console level it would need to have the capability of hooking up to a TV screen and having multiple controllers. While I think this is a cool idea, this is a fantasy land right now.
    Oct 3, 2013. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    "Mobile Desktop Experience" is like building a mini-cooper that can transport several tonnes of cement on the inside. Just because it can do it doesn't make it remotely useful.

    The growth of the mobile market is because the majority of users are content consumers and not content creators. Content consumers don't need massive amounts of power, and like you have identified, "Most Android users are content with their even older 32-bit versions of Android."

    If you want to talk about security, let's talk about how the US military chose a modified version of android because their software stack is open and allows for the creation of custom encryption protocols that would be very difficult to implement in Apple's ecosystem.

    http://bit.ly/1187VxH
    Oct 3, 2013. 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    The major problem is that for the most part CPU chips have hit sort of a ceiling, this isn't the past, the A7 doesn't leap frog the competition.

    We're talking about smart phones, not pcs. How much CPU power is really required to type in a number. I can tell you that the differences between android and iOS are very minor and anyone who thinks differently is either delusion or a zealot (either side). These kind of arguments were some what valid when Android first launched, but now they are some what irrelevant. Besides the physical size difference between my iPad and Nexus, there really isn't much else.

    Now this might be a brilliant play in terms of profitability, which will still need to be seen, but it is completely irrational to believe that this will help Apple reclaim their dominant market share in terms of smart phones.
    Oct 3, 2013. 02:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's iPhone 5C/5S Strategy All Wrong? [View article]
    I know it is vain, but gold iPhones and a new power pc that looks like a plant pot / trash bin, come on. Apple might be around to say, but man are they starting to look silly. The new products visually don't agree with each other.
    Sep 16, 2013. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implications Of Apple Guidance [View article]
    A rising stock price.
    Apr 23, 2013. 11:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $395: Time To Give Up And Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Even if they could drive the value down to book value, they would still require 126 billion, and then in order to do the acquisition they would have to make a deal with the share holders because there is no way they could do it themselves without driving the price up.

    I have to point out that a 50% retracing is very common, and it has to do with capital liquidation, there is a good reason for it besides being a mythical technical trend.

    Part of this reason is a psychological one, once people lose over 50% they "give up" and just hold on to the stock, this results in a decrease in sellers, at this point the stock can literally only go up.
    Apr 19, 2013. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
    Ya, it's not like Microsoft and Apple have completely different philosophies or anything. While we are at it can we get all the religions of the world to merge? I think that would solve a lot of problems.
    Apr 18, 2013. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Add Apple To Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    What kind of truck?

    Are we talking about a beater for like $1500, which would require AAPL to triple and get a market capitalization of roughly 1.4 trillion dollars, or are we talking about say a new truck at $25,000 which would require the market capitalization of Apple to rise to 23 trillion which is more then the entire GDP of the USA.
    Apr 18, 2013. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Add Apple To Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    Every transaction has a buyer.. There are just no aggressive buyers.
    Apr 18, 2013. 02:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Add Apple To Your Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    I wouldn't be surprised if AAPL saw $300 with all the hysteria, but I really have a hard time thinking AAPL would stay under $350 for a prolonged period of time since this would make their valuation less then dell.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 18, 2013. 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Undervalued, But I Was Wrong - The Moat Is Not That Compelling [View article]
    October 23, 2001: iPod
    January 6, 2004: Ipod Mini (nano was next year)
    June 29, 2007: iPhone
    January 30, 2008: Macbook Air (first ultra book)
    April 3, 2010: iPad
    Nover 2, 2012: iPad mini

    Now you might not consider the downsizing of the iPod as innovation, but I do because it was pretty major form factor change. Now technology is getting to the point where everything is pretty small, or a small as it can be or as small as it can get without losing usability. This does not fare well that makes the lion share of their revenue off hardware.

    I am not sure if you have actually read Steve Jobs auto biography but there is a substantial difference between cook and Jobs. When jobs wanted the best, he didn't bother with morale, he brute forced his team to create the best product they could. Without the proper leader, it doesn't matter who you have on the team.

    Now there is a chance that maybe Cook is capable of getting innovation out of his people, the problem is who is going to make the final call on new products? It has to be cook, he is the CEO, and that was not his responsibility before.
    Apr 17, 2013. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Undervalued, But I Was Wrong - The Moat Is Not That Compelling [View article]
    A key component of Graham and also buffet's investment strategy is not only fundamentals but also analyzing management. In fact I think management is actually more important than fundamentals.

    Apple is a different company now, period. Tim Cook fired forstall who was a Jobs protege. They are not innovating, they are maintaining. You can disagree with me, say it doesn't matter that they haven't released a single major innovation since Jobs's passing, or that even if they don't release any new major innovations they can maintain because of customer loyalty, but I am pretty sure the market agrees with me from what the stock is doing.
    Apr 16, 2013. 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Undervalued, But I Was Wrong - The Moat Is Not That Compelling [View article]
    If you're betting on retention for Apple, you better hope they actually start innovating again. They haven't released a single new innovation since Job's passing. Even samsung is starting to out innovate Apple. The only thing Apple has been doing is releasing the same products with minor improvements.

    There is a certain amount of delusion going on. Apple -IS- a different company now, they even fired one of the people that thought most like Jobs and had been there forever. Even he pointed out when he left, "Apple no longer has a clear leadership."
    Apr 16, 2013. 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Undervalued, But I Was Wrong - The Moat Is Not That Compelling [View article]
    P/B stabilization is what is important when it comes to stocks, not so much what the actual P/B is. If for instance a stock's price has been rising but its P/B has remained stable, what this means is that the price has been increasing with its book value. This can point to a stock that has a price that is some what related to its fundamentals. If however the P/B is some what violent, this makes the valuation much more difficult, which can often be the case with growth stocks. For example if a stock has a P/B that stays in the range of 2-2.5, any drop below 2 for a decent amount of time could be considered value.

    While I might "call" a bottom, I would never suggest executing a trade there until a bottom is confirmed by means of a solid turn around. However, if there is any rational reason at all that Apple could drop to say 350, mine is P/B valuations, but the technical analysts will say that 350 is a common 1/2 retracing, then you need to wonder how much risk you are actually exposing yourself to in order to justify your fundamentals.

    I like to remind myself that the people buying all the way down believe the stock is going to go up.
    Apr 15, 2013. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Undervalued, But I Was Wrong - The Moat Is Not That Compelling [View article]
    Your mistake was not understanding the companies, your mistake was misunderstanding what value is in the stock market.

    People seem to think that "value" can be determined by looking at what a stock price "should" be by using things that are actually completely unrelated to stock price motion. Stock price motion can do anything it wants because a stock price is at the mercy of investor's need for liquidity. There is no reason for a stock price of a stock that has year over year earning growth to drop in a bear market, but it does because people need liquidity.

    The only way to determine if a stock is "value" is by not only analyzing the fundamentals but figuring out historical precedent of not only the stock in question but other stocks in the same sector.

    Let me give you a real world example as a metaphor. For the last 6 months coca-cola has been selling for $5 for a 2L bottle. If it suddenly drops to $4, this would be considered value. With a stock you can figure out value using P/B ratios.

    However, if Coca-cola never dropped above $5, when would it become a "value" play? When Pepsi and every other soda hopped up to $7.

    This is the fundamental problem with almost all value articles not just on AAPL, but on SA. A leader only becomes a value play when everyone else is trading "higher" on fundamentals. Of course when I brought up that the standard for value for AAPL should be dell, not MSFT, people said I was wrong because Dell under performs AAPL significantly fundamentally, but that was the point.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    When AAPL drops to $350 and absolutely everyone is bearish, then it will start to rise again.
    Apr 15, 2013. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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