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Jordan Kahn
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Jordan Kahn, CFA is the President and CIO of KAM Advisors, in Beverly Hills, CA. He is a frequent market commentator for numerous investment publications, and has appeared on CNBC and KNBC-Los Angeles. He is a regular columnist for Wall Street All-Stars and has also been featured in... More
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KAM Advisors
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In The Money
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  • Google Drops The Ball
    Today's reactions to earnings reports are pretty mixed, with Google being the big loser so far.  I think expectations were running pretty high for GOOG to report a good quarter.  So when they missed estimates by a $1, investors hit the sell button in a hurry.  GOOG is down -8% so far today on a big jump in volume.  We will have to see if it can recoup any of its early losses into the close.
     
    Another stock that is taking it on the chin is ISRG, which actually beat estimates by a nice amount.  GE and AXP are also lower this morning.  On the plus side are IBM, MSFT, and INTC.
     
    In economic news, existing home sales in December rose to a rate of 4.61 million units (vs. 4.55 consensus).
     
    Asian markets were higher overnight.  China rose 1.0% despite a PMI reading of 48.8 which marks the 3rd straight month the index was below the 50 level which marks the line between expansion and contraction.
     
    The euro is lower this morning.  Although there is talk of an agreement on the Greek debt issue, a colleague just told me CDS spreads are widening on Portugal to new highs, and Portugal is a much bigger issue than Greece. 
     
    The 10-year yield is finally moving above the 2.0% level to 2.01% currently.  That is just above the 50-day moving average.  As for the VIX, it  closed below the 20 level yesterday and is currently a bit lower to 19.65 despite the market being down a bit.
     
    Trading comment: The market could have been down a lot more following the GOOG miss and the reactions to GE, AXP, etc.  So I think it is a slight positive that the market is only down slightly so far (although it is still early).  I think most investors remain in dip buying mode, as many came into the year under-invested and holding too much cash.  I want to focus on those companies that continue to beat estimates and lead the market.  Unfortunately right now I cannot put GOOG in that category.
     
    KAM Advisors was long GOOG and IBM
    Tags: GOOG
    Jan 20 11:13 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Credit Angst Percolating Again in Europe
    The market is lower in early trading. It would be interesting if we could see a reverse of the recent pattern of strong opens and weak closes, with the market opening weak today but finishing on a strong note.

    The Fed met yesterday and left interest rates unchanged. But they did lower their forecast for growth a bit. The market often does not have a big move on the day the Fed meets, but then experiences larger moves the next day. That could be playing out today.

    In economic news, durable goods orders for May fell -1.1%, less than expected. Orders ex-transportation rose +0.9%, and figures for the prior month were revised upward. Initial jobless claims for last week slightly better than expectations.

    In corporate news, Darden (DRI) and ConAgra (CAG) missed estimates, while NKE was in-line and BBBY was above estimates. But guidance was soft, and all of the stocks are lower today. The retail index (XRT) is down the most so far, falling -2.75%.

    Among the sector ETFs, financials are weakest (-1.72%) followed by energy (-1.66%); utilities are down the least (-0.10%), then healthcare (-0.58%). Real estate is also getting hit by -2.62%.

    The dollar is roughly flat. Gold is higher to $1237, while oil prices are lower to $75.95.

    The 10-year yield is hitting new 52-week lows at 3.07%, not a sign of confidence on the part of the bond market. The VIX is up another +9.6% to 29.50. I view the VIX over 30 as a signal that investors are expecting big whipsaws in the market.

    Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, but not by a lot. Europe is lower this morning, and the bad news seems to be percolating there again, as credit default swap yields are rising, with Greek CDS near record highs.

    Trading comment: I have commented that the news and credit indicators I follow were flashing caution signals. That is why I haven't gotten overly bullish recently, despite the intermittent rallies. The S&P and Nasdaq are both back below their respective 200-day averages, and the flight to safety trade (US dollar, gold, Treasuries) looks to be back in force. Be careful out there.

    Disclosure: long GLD, VXX
    Jun 24 11:18 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Does Obama Get It?
    Here is a link to a good article from the CEO of Proctor & Gamble, Bob McDonald:
    P&G chief more worried about U.S. than ever

    In it, he discusses why he is worried about Obama's policies and proposals, since they are creating more uncertainty for US businesses, and large corporations aren't going to hire more people in the face of increased uncertainty. What he needs to do is help them feel more reassured about the business climate.

    I think we need to get more business leaders talking about this stuff, in the hopes that maybe Obama will start to "get it".



    Disclosure: No positions
    Feb 05 12:30 PM | Link | Comment!
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