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Jordan Kahn
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Jordan Kahn, CFA is the President and CIO of KAM Advisors, in Beverly Hills, CA. He is a frequent market commentator for numerous investment publications, and has appeared on CNBC and KNBC-Los Angeles. He is a regular columnist for Wall Street All-Stars and has also been featured in... More
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  • Monday Morning Musings

    Lots of action already in the first hour of trading. Markets started lower out of the gate, but the lows came early and dip buyers stepped in. That led to a bounce and the Nasdaq has already erased its early losses. Of course, it's still very early in the trading session.

    The early weakness has been attributed in part to the protests in Hong Kong overnight. But although Hong Kong's stock market was nearly 2% lower, China and Japan actually rallied. So I would tend to discount that excuse.

    There was some M&A news from the weekend. Tibco (NASDAQ:TIBX) is being acquired by private equity for a 26% premium, Encana (NYSE:ECA) is buying Athlon Energy (NYSE:ATHL) for a 25% premium, and Dreamworks (NASDAQ:DWA) is up 27% on speculation Softbank could acquire it.

    In economic news, personal incomes rose 0.3% in August, while personal spending rose a solid 0.5% (slightly ahead of estimates). August pending home sales fell -1.0%.

    The volatility index spiked all the way to 17.0 on the opening selloff, but has since reversed lower and is back below 16 so far down to 15.65 currently.

    Gold prices are a bit higher near $1218 while oil prices are roughly flat near $93.60.

    The 10-year yield is trading lower to 2.48%.

    Trading comment: This morning's dip quickly brought out dip buyers, and a bounce into quarter end tomorrow would not be surprising. The S&P 500 is trading right at its 50-day moving average, while the Nasdaq is back above its 50-day. Just for confusion, the mid-cap and small-cap indexes remain well below their respective 50-day averages. So overall, it does seem that a bit of caution still seems appropriate. So far the S&P 500 has only pulled back -2.7% from its recent highs. The average pullback this year has been closer to -5.8%. Food for thought.

    Sep 29 11:43 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Monday Morning Musings

    Stocks are mostly lower out of the gate this morning. Not any real catalysts. One theory for the selling in tech stocks is big funds making room for the Alibaba IPO. Not sure how much water that holds, but smaller growth stocks are taking it on the chin a bit so far. But we still have a lot of time left today.

    Another reason could be the disappointing data out of China. Industrial production grew +6.9%, but that is the slowest pace since Dec. 2008. Moreover, electricity production declined for the first time since 2009. Electricity production is closely watched because many feel those numbers can't be massaged by govt data collectors.

    Here in the US, the Empire Manufacturing Survey beat estimates and came in at 27.5, up strongly from last month's reading of 14.7.

    On the geopolitical front, Russia sent a second aid convoy into Ukraine without clearance from the Ukraine govt. Considering the potential cease-fire that has been offered, these actions seem a little odd.

    The 10-year yield got a big boost last week and rallied up to the 2.60% level. That spooked income investors and caused a sharp selloff in things like REITs, MLPs, etc. So it bears monitoring if yields continue to rise or settle down following the brief spike.

    And the volatility index is up another 6% to the 14.15 level. In August we saw the VIX spike up to the 17 level, so if the selling in stocks persists we could see the VIX more higher again.

    Trading comment: Lots of cross-currents in the market. The major indexes are still above their 50-day averages, but the small-cap (NYSEARCA:IWM) has broken below its 50-day, and so has the emerging market index. Combined with the selling in growth stocks, it appears that the market may need a bit more of a pause. We would wait a few days to see if the selling picks up steam or settles down, but we would still view any pullback as a buying opportunity at this point.

    Sep 15 12:20 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Monday Morning Musings

    Markets are mixed this Monday morning as tech stocks get a boost while most other sectors trade in the red so far. Financials are also bucking the weakness a bit after Bank of America was upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs and is helping buoy the group.

    There wasn't any big M&A news of the weekend and not much market moving news this morning. The geopolitical headlines pretty much remain the same with concerns about ISIS in Iraq and questions as to Putin's motives in Ukraine.

    Asian markets were mixed overnight. China's trade surplus expanded with imports falling -2.4% while exports grew 9.4%. European markets trade lower today and Eurozone investor sentiment has fallen to -9.8 from 2.7. Pretty big drop.

    Bond yields continue to vacillate in low territory. Friday it looked like the 10-year yield may test 2.50%, but today it is back in the 2.43% area. Gold prices also continue to trend lower with the yellow metal trading down to $1258.

    Trading comment: The S&P 500 hit the 2000 mark back on 8/25, and despite reaching overbought territory the index has refused to give up any ground. The sideways consolidation around this key psychological level should be construed as bullish. With the geopolitical backdrop concerns, you have to conclude that this bull market continues to climb the proverbial 'wall of worry' and until proven otherwise we continue to give the market the benefit of the doubt and look for opportunities in stocks.

    Sep 08 11:11 AM | Link | Comment!
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