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Josef Schuster
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Josef Schuster is the founder of IPOX Schuster LLC, a data driven financial technology firm specializing in Financial Products Design related to global IPOs and spin-offs (www.ipoxschuster.com). Our philosophy involves the classification of global IPOs ans spin-offs as a separate asset class.... More
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  • The IPOX Week (03/11/13): IPOX ETF (FPX) Continues Historic Run, Santander-linked U.S. Unit IPOs Surge !!!

    IPOX Indexes Weekly Summary

    · IPOX Indexes surge. China benchmarks catch up to IPOX China 20 (NYSE:CNI). Santander-linked U.S. unit IPO exposure surges.

    · IPOX-U.S. linked ETF (NYSEARCA:FPX) continues historic run.

    IPOs debut strongly while few deals lined up to trade.

    IPOX Returns, Notable Company Movers:

    IPOX Indexes rise in line with benchmarks, historic bull run in IPOX U.S. continues: Global equities surged ahead of U.S. Futures & Options expiration amid firm Asian markets and good U.S. economic data with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX: -18.04%) plunging towards fresh all-time lows. After the previous week's big move, the IPOX Indexes traded in line to lower vs. the benchmarks, with the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50: +1.42%) losing -42bps. vs. the MSCI World (MXWD). We note the performance jump in IPOX-included IPOs linked to Spain's Banco Santander (SAN SM) with unit Banco Santander Brazil (BSBR US: +10.50%) and Grupo Financiero Santander Mexico (BSMX US: +8.24%) surging in tandem. Within the IPOX Regional Index Universe, IPOX U.S. rose most, with the IPOX U.S. linked U.S. IPO ETF extending the YTD gain to +12.49% (see chart above for Fund properties). With volatile U.S. social networker Facebook (FB: +0.65%) trading only slightly higher, big gains in small- and mid-caps on momentum and earnings were driving returns with USDbn 1.7 airline and 05/11 IPO Spirit Airlines (SAVE US: +14.98%), natural gas and oil explorer USDbn 3.2 WPX Energy (WXP US: +13.40%) or USDbn 2.4 Pandora Media (P US: +12.11%) in focus. Upscale U.S. grocery market operator USDbn 1.90 The Fresh Market (TFM US: -13.44%) and Elon Musk's alternative energy provider Solarcity (SCTY US: -10.19%) slumped after missing earnings. "Red-hot" China e-commerce firm Sequoia-backed VipShop (VIPS US: -5.77%) - one of only three China-linked deals in the U.S. last year - fell last week on profit taking after earnings, while H.K. domiciled 04/12 IPO consulting firm Acquity Group (AQ US: +37.79%) surged on indication for possible Joint Venture pacts.

    · IPOX Indexes Comparative Price Returns (all in %):

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)Week2012YTD 13
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (NYSEARCA:USD)1.4224.177.27
    IPOX Global 30 (IPGL30)1.6919.578.85
    MSCI World (MXWD)1.8413.445.99
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)2.1729.1712.45
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)1.8528.8611.05
    S&P 500 (SPX)2.1713.418.76
    IPOX Europe 50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)2.336.097.01
    IPOX Europe 30 (IXTE) (EUR)2.690.037.67
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)2.418.784.87
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)0.5428.776.38
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)0.7310.977.00
    IPOX China 20-0.0519.535.14
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)0.3718.933.47
    FTSE China 25 (XIN0I)0.9213.48-1.38

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/Spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    · Notable IPOX Indexes Movers:

    IPOX IndexNameSizeChange(%)Ticker
    IPXUCHCPAcquitySmall+37.79AQ UN
    IPXOSpirit AirSmall+14.98SPR UN
    IPXOWPX EnergyMid+13.40WPX UN
    IPXOPandora MediaSmall+12.11P UN
    IPGL50Santander Br.Large+10.50BSBR UN
    IPXOFresh MarketSmall-13.44TFM UN
    IPXOSolarcitySmall-10.19SCTY UN
    IPXUCHCPVipShopSmall-5.77VIPS US

    · IPOs Traded (Week: 03/04/2013):

    CompanyTickerReturn/IPO/week
    Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt.APAM US+28.83%
    Termbray Petro-King2178 HK+31.71%

    The big run in global benchmarks had little effect on IPO activity with just two notable deals commencing trading: U.S. based Artisan Partners (APAM US) and Termbray Petro-King (2178 HK) priced at or near the top of their respective ranges and closed the week markedly higher.

    · Upcoming global IPOs (Week: 03/11/2013):

    CompanyCodePricingComment
    Oi Wah Pawnshop1319 HK3/15Micro-Cap
    Silver Spring NetworksSSNI US3/12Low Float IPO
    Xinchen China Power1148 HK3/6Priced at low-end

    At least two significant IPOs are set to debut trading this week: What appears a Groupon (GRPN US)-style low float strategy to maximize initial market cap, revenue-volatile Goldman/CS-led Silver Spring Networks (SSNI US) is an alternative energy technology provider and seeks to sell up to 9.61% of the firm at between 3.61 and 4.06 times 2012 revenues. China Auto-Parts manufacturer Xinchen China Power (1148 HK) priced the IPO of 25% of the company at HKD 2.23 near the low end at a P/E of ca. 7.80. Pricing looks attractive when compared to global IPO incumbents, including Korea's Mando (060980 KS), a unit of Korea's Halla Group, which itself announced an intention to list its China subsidiary in an USDm 275 IPO on Friday.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Mar 11 7:19 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The IPOX Week (03/04/13): IPOX Indexes Surge Past Benchmarks !!!

    IPOX Indexes Weekly Summary

    · IPOX Indexes spike as global risk recedes. IPOX China (NYSE:CNI) continues relative surge.

    · After a big week and reversal, IPOX-U.S. linked ETF (NYSEARCA:FPX) back near all-time high.

    Only few IPO deals lined up to price.

    IPOX Returns, Notable Company Movers

    · IPOX Indexes rise, strongly outperform, relative performance of IPOX China surges anew: The IPOX Indexes were the main beneficiary of calming global markets with the VIX Volatility Index (VIX) plunging -19.1% from Monday's closing high. On the global level, the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) - key global measure for the "going public" effect of the largest and most liquid 50 global IPOs and Spin-offs during the past four years - rose +1.42% to +5.77% YTD, beating benchmark MSCI World (MXWD) by a large +144 bps. Outperformance was driven by strength, amongst U.S., Asia-Pacific and China-domiciled firms, while IPOX Europe (IPXUJPEU, IXTE) underperformend. In the U.S., the underlying index to the IPOX-linked First Trust U.S. IPO Fund gained +1.49% to +10.06% YTD, beating benchmarks such as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) by a large +134 bps., +155 bps. and +111 bps., respectively. A big week in some of the IPOX heavyweight such as beleaguered social networker Facebook (FB US: +2.40%), tech Verisk Analytics (VRSK US: +8.38%), discount retailer Dollar General (DG US: +3.35%) or hospital operator HCA Holdings (HCA US: +3.36%) drove relative returns. Amid weak earnings, Chicago-based Groupon (GRPN: -10.84%) plunged but re-bounded strongly towards week-end after replacing its founder. Amongst China-linked exposure, we note the renewed surge in relative performance of the IPOX China . Driven by a good week in Financial and Dec. 2012 IPO PICC (1339 HK: +2.65%), for example, the index extended its YTD lead vs. benchmark FTSE China 25 (XIN0I) to a massive +747 bps., underlying the asset allocation potential of newly issued stocks amid index construction issues currently inherent in the FTSE China 25 (XIN0I). In developed Asia-Pacific, we note a new all-time high in HK Financial and IPOX heavyweight AIA Group (1299 HK: +5.16%) as well as Trade Me (TME AU: +13.07%) after solid earnings and DJ S&P Indexes inclusion.

    · IPOX Indexes Comparative Price Returns:

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)Week2012YTD 13
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (NYSEARCA:USD)1.4224.175.77
    IPOX Global 30 (IPGL30)1.3519.577.04
    MSCI World (MXWD)-0.0213.444.08
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)1.4929.1710.06
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)1.4328.869.04
    S&P 500 (SPX)0.1713.416.45
    IPOX Europe 50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)-0.626.094.57
    IPOX Europe 30 (IXTE) (EUR)-0.840.034.84
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)0.168.782.32
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)1.3928.775.81
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)-0.0210.974.08
    IPOX China 201.3119.535.19
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)1.1918.933.09
    FTSE China 25 (XIN0I)0.1913.48-2.28

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/Spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    · Notable IPOX Indexes Movers:

    IPOX IndexNameSizeChangeTicker
    U.S. 100VeriskLarge+8.38%VRSK US
    Global 50AIALarge+5.16%1299 HK
    Global 50HCALarge+3.36%HCA US
    U.S. 100GrouponMid-10.84%GRPN US
    IPOX Europe 50African BarrickSmall-4.96%ABG LN
    IPOX Asia-PacificCalbeeMid-3.31%2229 JT

    · IPOs Traded (Week: 02/25/2013):

    CompanyTickerReturn/IPO/week
    Roma Group8072 HK50.00%

    · Upcoming global IPOs (Week: 03/04/2013):

    CompanyCodePricingComment
    Xinchen China Power1148 HK3/5Auto Parts Manuf.
    Artisan PartnersAPAM US3/6Asset Management

    Auto-Parts manufacturer Xinchen China Power (1148 HK) is expected to price its IPO of 25% of the company at between HKD 2.20-2.80 or a P/E of 7.59-9.66. A pricing towards the low end is particularly attractive when compared to global IPO incumbents (e.g. 060980 KS). After few failed attempts, U.S. domiciled asset manager and P/E-backed Artisan Partners (APAM US) seeks to take advantage of the "window of opportunity" for U.S. IPOs: The firm, which - despite big average fund flows into U.S. equities in YTD 2013 - has seen virtually no net client inflows YTD according to the SEC filing, seeks to raise USDm 333 valuing the firm at between USDbn 1.86-2.00 or 4x revenues. Performance of notable U.S. incumbents since IPO mixed: CMLS US: -22.61%, ART US: -88.73%, OZM US: -60.11%, FIG: -60.82%, MN US: +31.63%.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Mar 04 2:35 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The IPOX Week (02/25/2013): Broad Retreat On Spike In Risk, China Plunge !!!

    IPOX Indexes Weekly Summary

    · After option expiration, IPOX Indexes lag as global risk spikes. China-linked exposure plunges anew.

    · IPOX-U.S. linked ETF (NYSEARCA:FPX) retreats on broad weakness as investors take profits after earnings.

    No significant deal flow lined up.

    IPOX Returns, Notable Company Movers:

    · All IPOX Indexes fall, IPOX China (NYSE:CNI) outperforms: Amid a spike in global risk with the VIX U.S Volatility Index (VIX: +13.72%) surging and profit taking after the big run-up, all IPOX Indexes retreated on the week. On the global level, the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) Index lost -1.75% to +4.26% YTD, -129 bps. more than benchmark MSCI World (MXWD). Weakness was broad-based and extended across the IPOX regions: In the U.S., the IPOX-linked First Trust U.S. IPO Fund (fund ticker: FPX) shed -1.43% to +8.45% YTD with worldwide hotel operator Marriot International (MAR US: -14.39%), cloud-related Fusion-IO (FIO US: -9.48%), residential mortgage service producer Nationstar Mortgage (NSM: -9.38%) or electric carmaker Tesla Motors (TSLA: -5.71%) in focus. While social network operator heavyweight Facebook (FB: -4.18%) retreated anew on secondary stock selling, discount retailer Dollar General (DG: +2.22%), vitamin retailer GNC (GNC: +5.67%), Solarcity (SCTY: +2.55%), Burger King Worldwide (BKW: +8.50%) or HomeAway (AWAY: +13.11%) bucked the weakness. Profit taking also pressured the IPOX Europe, with the IPOX Europe 30 (IXTE: +0.06%) lagging. Amid the revival in the European IPO market with Germany's private-equity backed chemicals company and DAX-30 candidate EURbn 14 Evonik Industries reviving plans for an April 2013 IPO, IPOX Europe's German-domiciled heavyweights Brenntag (BNR GY: +0.36%) and takeover candidate Kabel Deutschland (KD8 GY: +1.90%) hit a new weekly post-IPO high. Big moves across Asia-Pacific markets caused the IPOX Asia-Pacific (IPTA: +0.15%) to also lag benchmarks. While China-linked exposure slumped, Japan continued to trade firm on perceived policy actions. Amongst IPOX's Japanese exposure, snack-food maker USDbn 2.9 Calbee (2229 JT: +4.09%) closed the week at yet another fresh post-IPO high. Strong earnings from IPOX Asia-Pacific heavyweight Italian fashion maker Prada (1913 HK: +5.63%) underline the positive momentum in the luxury retail space. Notable is the continued slide in China-linked exposure with the FTSE China 25 (XIN0I: -4.35%) extending the three-trading week drop to a big -7.43%. While outperforming the benchmark, big declines in Financial stocks including broker CITIC Securities (6030 HK: -10.37%) or Ag Bank of China (1288 HK: -5.44%) also contributed to a slump in the IPOX China 20 (CNI: -3.09%). Longfor Properties (960 HK: +1.94%) rose against the trend. Amid a Goldman-Sachs (GS US)- led secondary offering aimed at increasing liquidity, China luxury retail shopping site operator Sequoia-backed USDbn 1.2 VIP Shop (VIPS US: -1.93% and +444.0% gain based on the first close) - one of only two IPOs of a U.S. IPO in 2012 - held most of its spectacular post-IPO gains last week.

    · IPOX Indexes Comparative Price Returns:

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)Week2012YTD 13
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (NYSEARCA:USD)-1.7524.174.29
    IPOX Global 30 (IPGL30)-1.8319.575.61
    MSCI World (MXWD)-0.4613.444.10
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)-1.4329.178.45
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)-0.9928.867.50
    S&P 500 (SPX)-0.2813.416.27
    IPOX Europe 50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)-0.316.095.22
    IPOX Europe 30 (IXTE) (EUR)0.060.035.73
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)0.418.782.15
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)0.1528.774.36
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)1.3110.974.89
    IPOX China 20-3.0919.533.83
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)-4.6018.931.88
    FTSE China 25 (XIN0I)-4.3513.48-2.46

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    · Notable IPOX Indexes Movers:

    IPOX IndexNameSizeChangeTicker
    U.S. 100Marriott Vac.Small-14.39VAC US
    Global 50Citic SecuritiesLarge-10.376030 HK
    U.S. 100Fusion-IOSmall-9.48FIO US
    Global 50YandexMid-8.03YNDX US
    Global 30FacebookLarge-4.18FB US
    U.S. 100HomeAwaySmall+13.11HOME US
    U.S. 100SSN&CSmall+11.58SSNC US
    Global 30PradaLarge+5.631913 HK
    Asia-PacificCalbeeMid+4.082229 JT
    Asia-PacificMGM ChinaMid+2.052282 HK

    Upcoming global IPOs (Week: 02/25/2013):

    CompanyCodeDayComment
    Roma Group8072 HK02/25Priced just above low end.

    Roma Group (8072 HK) is a micro-cap provider of valuation and advisory serviced related to natural resources. The firm seeks to sell 25% for HKDm 100 to expand its R&D efforts.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Feb 26 8:17 AM | Link | Comment!
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