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Josef Schuster
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Josef Schuster is the founder of IPOX Schuster LLC, a data driven financial technology firm specializing in Financial Products Design related to global IPOs and spin-offs (www.ipoxschuster.com). Our philosophy involves the classification of global IPOs ans spin-offs as a separate asset class.... More
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  • The IPOX Week (2/11/13): Indiscriminate Demand For U.S. IPOs - China Plunge Mitigates Another Great Week In IPOX U.S. !!!

    IPOX Indexes Weekly Summary

    · IPOX Indexes mixed: Effects of more gains in IPOX U.S., IPOX EU mitigated by APAC, China weakness.

    · U.S. IPOs debut strongly.

    No significant deal flow as markets celebrate Chinese New Year. Feb. Option Expiration week ahead.

    IPOX Returns, Notable Company Movers:

    · IPOX Indexes close mixed, IPOX U.S.-linked ETF (TICKER: FPX) at new record:On the global level (IPGL50), more relative strength in the IPOX U.S. (IPXU, IPXT) and IPOX Europe (IXTE, IPXUJPEU) was unable to offset weakness amongst developed and emerging Asia portfolio members (IPTA, CNI). The IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50), capturing the performance of a selected list of the largest 50 global IPOs and Spin-Offs over a four-year rotational cycle, retreated -0.92% to +5.71%, 39 bps. more than benchmark MSCI World (MXWD).

    · IPOX-U.S. linked ETF continues record run.:

    The cross-section of individual stock returns in the IPOX universe was again characterized by a large skew in individual returns: For example, China's online luxury e-tailor VIP Shop (VIPS US), one of only two China IPOs in the U.S. last year, surged another +35.04% on stake building. Good earnings and online-gambling optimism propelled beleaguered Zynga (ZNGA US: +28.95%) to a multi-week high, while an upward revision in forecasts propelled IPOX heavyweight Japan Pan Airlines (9201 JT: +16.45%) to a fresh post-IPO high. Notable is the continued relative strength in IPOX Europe (IXTE, IPXUJPEU) which recorded another week of strong absolute and relative gains. NZ online market-place and IPOX APAC (IPTA: -0.94%) member TradeMe (TME AU: +4.15%) surged ahead of news on its inclusion in the country's main benchmark index. Mainland China-linked stocks traded in H.K. retreated with Financials and Property developers pushing the FTSE China 25 Index (XINOI: -4.62%) back to near unchanged for the year. Index spreads of key Chinese benchmarks continued to widen in favor of IPOX China (CNI: -2.40%) which has now extended the YTD relative lead versus XIN0I to a big 464 bps.

    · IPOX Indexes Comparative Price Returns:

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)Week2012YTD 13
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (NYSEARCA:USD)-0.9224.175.71
    IPOX Global 30 (IPGL30)-0.6719.576.91
    MSCI World (MXWD)-0.5313.444.74
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)0.8029.179.46
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)0.5328.868.37
    S&P 500 (SPX)0.3213.416.43
    IPOX Europe 50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)0.756.094.82
    IPOX Europe 30 (IXTE) (EUR)0.580.034.82
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)-0.538.781.88
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)-0.9428.774.22
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)0.9510.974.65
    IPOX China 20 (NYSE:CNI)-2.4019.534.96
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)-1.5718.934.93
    FTSE China 25 (XIN0I)-4.6313.480.32

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    · Notable IPOX Indexes Movers:

    IPOX IndexNameSizeChangeTicker
    IPOX CHINAVIP ShopSmall+35.04%VIPS US
    IPOX U.S.ZyngaMid+28.95%ZNGA US
    IPOX APACJapan AirlinesLarge+16.45%9201 JT
    IPOX EUGlobal PortsLarge+10.65%GLPR LI
    IPOX U.S.Rest. HardwareMid+7.87%RH UN
    IPOX CHINAChina MinshengLarge-11.26%1988 HK
    IPOX CHINALongfor Proper.Large-7.19%960 HK
    IPOX U.S.Burger KingMid-7.14%BKW US
    IPOX APACSands ChinaLarge-6.79%1928 HK
    IPOX GLOBALAg Bank ChinaMega-6.39%1288 HK

    · Significant IPOs Traded (Week: 02/04/2013)/Others:

    CompanyTickerReturn/IPO/week
    Asiacell CommunicationsTASC IQ6.14%
    Worree E&L153490 KS3.27%
    PanAsialum2078 HK-17.68%
    Time Watch Investment2033 HK2.22%
    Boise CascadeBCC US31.24%
    ExOne Co./TheXONE US67.22%
    Iones Co.114810 KS12.89%
    New Source Energy PartnersNSLP US-2.55%
    Health Insurance InnovationHIIQ US-2.14%
    Zais FinancialZFC US-6.12%
    LinxLINX3 BZ18.52%

    11 notable IPOs priced last week with the average (median) IPO gaining +10.27% (+3.27%). While the weekly APAC/Hong Kong IPO vintage (2078 HK, 2033 HK, etc.) traded mixed, the key U.S. deals (BCC US, XONE US) underlined the strong U.S. equity risk appetite and indiscriminate demand enforced by positive feed-back with the respective deals pricing at the top end and trading significantly higher thereafter. While to "OGX-overhang" led Brazil's energy explorer QGOG to postpone its NY IPO, software solutions provider small-cap Linx (LINX3 BZ: +18.52%) had a successful start as a publicly traded firm.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Feb 13 8:31 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The IPOX Week (2/4/13): IPOX Strategies Rise With Benchmarks, IPOX U.S. -linked IPO ETF (Ticker: FPX) Beats In January !!!

    IPOX Indexes Weekly Summary

    · IPOX Indexes rise with benchmarks.

    · IPOX U.S., IPOX Asia-Pacific extend record run, big divergence in individual stock returns after earnings.

    Key U.S. IPOs debut strongly, more deal flow ahead.

    IPOX Returns, Notable Company Moves:

    · IPOX Indexes Comparative Price Returns:

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)Week2012YTD 13
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (NYSEARCA:USD)0.9124.176.69
    IPOX Global 30 (IPGL30)0.7619.577.63
    MSCI World (MXWD)0.7513.445.30
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)0.8629.178.60
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)0.6028.867.80
    S&P 500 (SPX)0.6813.416.10
    IPOX Europe 50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)-0.276.094.04
    IPOX Europe 30 (IXTE) (EUR)-0.420.034.21
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)-0.738.782.42
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)1.1728.775.21
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)1.0310.973.67
    IPOX China 20 (NYSE:CNI)2.5619.537.55
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)1.3918.936.61
    Hang Seng Enprs. (HSCEI)1.7815.096.81

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    · Notable IPOX Indexes Movers:

    IPOX IndexNameSizeChangeTicker
    IPXOFreescale Semi.Mid-Cap+23.23%FSL US
    IPXOFortinetMid-Cap+13.27%FTNT US
    IPGL30Phillips 66Large-Cap+10.46%PSX US
    IPTACalbeeMid-Cap+9.32%2229 JT
    IPGL50Telefonica DELarge-Cap+8.18%O2D GY
    IPXOFusion-ioMid-Cap-19.31%FIO US
    IPXOServiceNowMid-Cap-9.74%NOW US
    IXTEEDP Reno.Mid-Cap-7.28%EDPR PL
    IPGL30FacebookLarge-Cap-5.74%FB US
    IPGL50Santander Mex.Large-Cap-4.85%BSMX US

    · Significant IPOs Traded (Week: 01/28/2013)/Others:

    CompanyTickerReturn/IPO/wk(%)
    Gladstone LandLAND US0.00%
    TRI Pointe HomesTPH US11.76%
    Chinalco Mining Corporation3668 HK-5.71%
    ZoetisZTS US19.27%
    LEG ImmobilienLEG GR0.11%

    7 IPOs debuted with the average (median) IPO gaining +4.70% (+0.11%). Real-estate related deals (LAND US, LEG GR, TPH US) got easily done. The strong reception to the week's biggest deal, the IPO of USDbn 15.5 Pfizer-spin-off Zoetis (ZTS US) with the company able to price the deal above range, underlines significant (risk) appetite for U.S. IPOs. H.K.'s only deal, the IPO of Chinalco Mining (3668 HK: -5.71%) fell from its final offering price on the week.

    · Upcoming global IPOs/Others - U.S. IPOs in focus:

    CompanyCodeDateComment
    PanAsialum2078 HK2/5/Priced above middle of range.
    Time Watch2033 HK2/5/Priced @ top end of range.
    Boise CascadeBCC US2/6/P/E backed, sells 28.37%
    Health Ins. Inn.HIIQ US2/7/Tech-IPO linked to heath care
    New Source E.NSLP US2/7/Oil&Gas Unit MLP
    QGOG Constell.QGOG US2/7Brazilian Oil&Gas explorer.
    ZAIS FinancialZFC US2/7Srvs. linked to resid. Mortg.
    AutoGenomicsAGMS US2/8Small, Healthcare products.

    Eight notable global IPOs are scheduled for the upcoming week. While the OGX (OGXP3 BZ: -66.12% since IPO) "overhang" must enter pricing expectations for Brazils QGOG (QGOG US), we expect initial pricing sentiment for all other deals to be driven by indiscriminate positive feed-back with focus on BCC US, HIIQ US and NSLP US.

    · IPOX Indexes extend gains :On the global level, the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) rose +0.91% to +6.69% YTD. In the cross-section, a good average earnings picture and relentless stock market momentum pushed the IPOX U.S. (IPXT, IPXO) and IPOX Asia-Pacific (IPTA) to new all-time closing highs. For example, the IPOX U.S.-linked First Trust U.S. IPO Index Fund (NYSEARCA:FPX), which captures USDbn 608 of U.S. stock market capitalization amongst a diversified set of 100 U.S. IPOs and Spin-Offs over the past four years, extended its gains for the month of January, rising +8.03% vs. +5.12% for the S&P 500-linked ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). Amid a surge in trading volume and assets and a beta of 0.93, the Fund NAV has increased by +40.01% since 1/1, 2012 vs. +20.51% for the ETF linked to the S&P 500 and +25.70% for the ETF linked to the S&P 400 Mid-Cap (NYSEARCA:MDY). The negative impact of big falls in select tech holdings including ServiceNow (NOW US:-9.74%), Fusion-io (FIO US: -19.31%) and Facebook (FB US: -5.74%) was more than mitigated by a big week in the 11/12 U.S. refinery spin-offs with Berkshire holding Phillips 66 (PSX US: +10.46%) closing at a post-spin-off high. We note continued relative strength in the IPOX Europe universe (IXTE, IPXUJPEU) with 12/12 IPO Telefonica Deutschland (O2D GY: +8.18%) leading the way. Amid strong earnings, red-hot Japanese Snack-food maker USD 2bn Calbee (2229 JT: +9.32%) reclaimed the spot-light in the IPOX Asia-Pacific Universe (IPTA).

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Feb 06 11:59 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The IPOX Week (11/19/12): IPOX Outperformance Reaches Highest In 2012 !!!

    Weekly Summary:

     

     

    ·
    · IPOX U.S. leads IPOX Global to massive weekly relative gain: Continued uncertainty regarding the U.S. Fiscal cliff, option expiration effects or continued relative weakness in U.S. technology pressured the main benchmarks for another week, with select IPOX Strategies seemingly insulated. On the global level, the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) fell just -0.19% to +15.37% YTD, with the YTD spreads vs. the MSCI World (MXWD) rising by +164 bps to +941 bps, the highest YTD 2012. Relative strength was driven a big week in U.S. social networker Facebook Inc. (FB: +22.65%) after fears of a meltdown in prices following the expiration of another massive lock-up met with hedge funds revealing large stakes in the company. On the global level, strength amongst other key IPOX holdings including energy firm USDbn 119.4 Ecopetrol (EC: +2.47%), Macau-domiciled casino operator Sands China (1928 HK: +2.82) and Japans Financial Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JT: +9.28%) supported. In the cross-section of the IPOX Strategies universe, the IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT) and IPOX U.S. 100 (ETF: FPX) traded virtually uncorrelated to the major benchmarks: For example, the IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT), which tracks the performance of the largest, best performing and most liquid U.S. IPOs and spin-offs over the past four years, rose +0.53% to +17.88% YTD, extending the relative YTD gains vs. the S&P 500 (SPX), Russell 2000 (RUT) or NASDAQ 100 (NDX) by a massive +198 bps to +975 bps. (SPX), +289 bps. to +1311 bps. (RUT) or +246 bps. to +663 bps. (NDX), all new highs. Apart from big action in IPOX top stock Facebook , S&P 500 candidate General Motors (GM: -4.75%) continued to lose momentum, US hospital operator HCA Holdings (HCA: -6.50%) slumped and discount retailer Dollar General (DG: +3.64%) rose despite weakness in behemoth USD 228.7bn Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: -5.92%).

    · IPOX Strategy Returns YTD 2012:

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)WeekQ3 12YTD 12
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (NYSEARCA:USD)-0.19%+7.31%+15.37%
    MSCI World (MXWD)-1.83%+6.24%+5.96%
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)-0.15%+7.09%+18.58%
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)+0.53%+5.39%+17.88%
    S&P 500 (SPX)-1.45%+5.76%+8.13%
    IPOX Europe50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)-2.92%+11.75%+1.49%
    IPOX Europe30 (IXTE) (EUR)-3.14%+11.76%-3.13%
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)-2.97%+5.76%+3.26%
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)-2.04%+6.82%+22.31%
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)-0.68%+2.56%+3.08%
    IPOX China 20 (NYSE:CNI)-2.05%-1.96%+4.28%
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)-1.12%+3.18%+8.07%
    Hang Seng Enprs. (HSCEI)-2.03%+2.68%+3.08%

     

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    § Best in Practice: Investment Management Mandates

    All other IPOX Strategies (IPOX Europe, IPOX Asia-Pacific, IPOX China) traded lower or in line with the benchmarks: For example, the IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA) fell by -136 bps. vs. the MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC). While the broad TOPIX (TPX: +2.82%) rose, select Japanese IPOX members including snack-food producer and MSCI Japan inclusion Calbee (2229 JT: -4.36%) or pharma stock Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP: -1.76%) weakened. The IPOX Europe (IXTE, IPXUJPEU) and IPOX China (CNI, IPXUCHCP) traded broadly in line with the benchmarks.

    · Upcoming global IPOs (Week: 11/19/2012):

    CompanyCodeDateLead
    Alon USA PartnersALDW US11/19CITI, CS
    Hudson's Bay CoHBC CN11/19BMO, ML
    YY IncYY US11/20CITI, DB
    CIFI Holdings Group884 HK11/23BOCOM, CITI

    Amid a shortened U.S. trading week, a number of IPOs are set to debut: Amongst the notable deals is dividend play Hudson's Bay Co. (HBC CN), the key Canadian/US department store operator which seeks to raise around USD 400m on the TSE, valuing the firm at USDbn 2.6. Chinese social media firm YY Inc. (YY US) is the first IPO of a Chinese firm in the U.S. since March 23 and seeks to raise up to USD 100m at a total firm value between USDm 559-665 or a steep 11-13 times 2012 expected revenue. The previous two Chinese IPOs in the U.S. have traded decidedly mixed over the short term: Since 10/1, e.g., while brand name China e-tailer VIP Shop (VIPS US) has surged by +52.13%, HK consultancy Acquity Group (AQ US) has slumped by -32.38%. Ahead of the expected IPO of PICC in December, Shanghai-based property developer CIFI Holdings (884 HK) followed many other 2012 HSE IPOs by pricing at the bottom of the indicative range: The company eventually raised USDm 215 for 21.75% of total equity.

    Despite U.S. holiday week, global IPOs set to price.

    IPOX Returns, IPOs Priced and Upcoming:

    · Key IPOX Strategies fall just slightly: IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT) rises, IPOX U.S. and IPOX Global outperformance rises to highest YTD 2012.

    · IPOX heavyweight social networker Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) reverses course again, surges.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Nov 26 4:35 PM | Link | Comment!
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