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Joseph Krueger

 
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  • The Future of Biotech: Party Like It's 1999 [View article]
    Biotech should be pronounced "buy-our-tech"....but its definition is more vague and there are lots of blurry lines. In this article I use it to refer to companies which use biology to create drugs/processes which are used in the practice of medicine . There of of course other application of biotechnology (agriculture, industrial processes, etc). Although it does not fit the strict definition, the term "biotech" in medicine is now commonly used to encompass pharmaceuticals, biologicals, medical devices, stem cells, and genomics; equivalent to the use of "car" (meaning sedan, truck, SUV, van, etc) to describe a vehicle. This is reflective of the necessary trend of integrating biotechnology into pharmaceuticals.
    Jan 17, 2010. 03:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poniard Pharmaceuticals: Oversold, Undervalued, Poised for Short Squeeze [View article]
    Alot has changed since the November trial announcement for the better. They raised an extra $14M in cash (dilutive, yes) and will update on the CRC and PCa trials; which from the data we have seen already, look promising and will move into phase III in my opinion.
    Meanwhile the short position is still quite large. No new short positions will enter. Who would short at this level? With no shorting pressure and some investor based rallying, the shorts will be forced to cover, just putting fuel on the rally fire. We do need a catalyst for the above mentioned investor rally to spark the short squeeze, but I think two conference presentations on two critical phase II trials just one month apart (end of Jan, beginning of March) is sufficient catalyst. Add on potential talks with the FDA and potentially announcing a partner for the phase III CRC and PCa trials, then you have lots of upward pressure. I see little downside at this point.
    Jan 11, 2010. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chembio Diagnostics: A buyer's delight [View instapost]
    Thanks hoopdreamer, so noted. Anyone who reads my blog and would like to discuss anything related to my blog is free to email me at (jskstocks at gmail dot com) and I will try to respond. Thanks for your interest.
    Oct 31, 2009. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chembio Diagnostics: A buyer's delight [View instapost]
    This is true, but the stock is showing good strength at this level, TA is excellent, there has been considerable accumulation over the last month or so. Its low volume and low float could be considered a very positive attribute- any good news will send it soaring. I expect good news in the conference call Nov 4, as the statements CEMI made in their last 10Q were very bullish- unusually bullish for a company to make in my opinion. Interestingly, the conference call is about 2 weeks before anyone expected it to come, and I am hoping it is because they have big news to announce.


    On Oct 30 10:14 AM Trader_Joe wrote:

    > Nice article..this stock looks so awesome but has a very very low
    > volume and the number of common shares and float is very less too.
    > But until the volume picks up it may go no where.
    Oct 30, 2009. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penny stocks or penny slots? [View instapost]
    Without mentioning any stock directly, I agree that penny stocks are especially susceptible to shorting and negative campaigning. As I mentioned, it is relatively easy for a group of traders to move them in either direction (up or down) given their relatively low trading dollar volume. So one has to keep in mind the motives of "pumpers" and "bashers" as they truly can control the price of penny stocks. This is one of the liabilities of trading penny stocks, and I will discuss these types of things in part 2 of this article.


    On Oct 26 02:02 AM bradenton wrote:

    > Nice article!!! I've made most of my money on penny stocks since
    > the mid-1990s. Since the early 2000s with precious metal stocks and
    > now Biotech stocks. I have only lost on 2 stocktrades in my life.
    > Currently I hold YMI and CTIC longterm (purchased below .60 cents)
    > and MBST which is about to take off!! I'd advise everyone to get
    > into MBST today!!! Sepsis is one of the biggest medical issues and
    > Medasorb's product is gonna be a HUGE SCORE!!
    > Pay attention to floated shares, cash position and product! Also
    > you failed to mention that many stocks such as CTIC are targeted
    > by Hedge Funds who make money shorting stocks (notice paid bashers
    > in chatroom).
    Oct 26, 2009. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penny stocks or penny slots? [View instapost]
    Frank, you can run through a maze faster than any gerbil I know, and that makes you one smart rodent. For that, I will follow you!


    On Oct 25 10:29 PM Frank the Gerbil wrote:

    > Being the gerbil that I am, I once swallowed a penny thinking it
    > was a small gerbil cookie. Be that as it may, I enjoyed your article.
    > Kudos to humanoids like yourself that can author something intelligently.
    >
    > Frank
    Oct 26, 2009. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medicure: Buried Alive [View instapost]
    I did read the 10Q. Their cash position is about where I expected, but I was dissapointed that we did not see more agressive growth in Aggrastat sales. They also have not restructured the payment due in November, and that is still hanging over their head. They still need to raise more cash to continue. I was hoping an impressive boost in Aggrastat sales would give them a PPS boost and give them the ability to raise more capital. Most likely they will gain another extention...but we really need more Aggrasat sales to give them positive cash flow.


    On Oct 14 11:20 PM Go MDUJ wrote:

    > Thanks for the insightly. Did you read the financial 1st quarter
    > release today? Not as bad as I expected. we should see .15 range
    > soon!
    >
    > Good luck!
    Oct 15, 2009. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soligenix: The Next Cell Therapeutics Comeback Story? [View instapost]
    Thanks for the correction- I was trying to explain the clinical data is less technical terms for the average reader and made several mistakes.
    You are apparently a know a great deal about the details of the orBec trial and the type of insight you offer is quite valuable. As I mentioned in an above comment, I think the take home message for investors should be that the primary enpoint was indeed the wrong endpoint, and the new endpoint of the current phase III trial is one that was previously met in the first trial. A very nice preview of success.

    On Oct 07 08:44 AM halochief007 wrote:

    > In this study, orBec® did not achieve statistical significance in
    > the study’s primary endpoint ([p-value 0.1177]) (it would likely
    > need a p value of 0.1 or less, so it almost made it).
    >
    > Joseph that statement that you made was incorrect. They needed a
    > p value of .05 to get approval. The problem is, they used the wrong
    > endpoint. The prior management used an endpoint that put emphasis
    > on when a patient failed not if they failed. Unfortunately 8 of the
    > treatment failures on Orbec ocurred in the first ten days, before
    > the drug had a chance to work. It isn't important when they fail
    > it is only important if they fail.
    > If you go through the data in the prior trial it also shows that
    > Orbec worked well in mismatched donor transplants and Non myeloablative
    > transplants which are performed in older and sicker patients that
    > can't undergo normal chem regimens. Since it is almost a death sentence
    > to give bone marrow transplants to a unrelated donor or a patient
    > that underwent a non myeloablative treatment doctors do not recommend
    > the transplant. Since Orbec seems to work extremely well in these
    > patients based on the prior phase 3 trial, doctor will be able to
    > perform transplants in these patients and that will increase the
    > size of the market.
    Oct 10, 2009. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medicure: Buried Alive [View instapost]
    Thanks for the very valuable nformation and correction about Merck- I missed that and I will correct that. It reassuring that Iroko has also shown fast growth in Aggrastat sales in the EU as Medicure has here in the US.
    I will research further into the Aggrastat comparison studies and update the blog with any relevant info- thanks for the tip. This would certainly drive Aggrastat sales also if improved efficacy could be a claim. One of the main drivers I feel will be the cost, as I mentioned. In the EU, with their nationalized health care system, cost may be an important factor in choosing Aggrastat over competitors. Certainly with the likely changes to made to the US health care system, this would also be a determining factor in choosing Aggrastat over competitors. A doubling in Aggrastat sales would make MCUJ profitable- and given the growth we have seen in the last 2 years and the above mentioned factors, that is certainly possible in my opinion.


    On Oct 07 12:29 PM Viking99969 wrote:

    > from Viking: thanks for a very complete overview but a couple of
    > slight corrections re: Aggrastat if I might?
    > 1) Merck sold the Ex-US Aggrastat commercial rights to privately-held
    > Iroko Pharma of Philadelphia approx. 20 months ago. Rumor has it
    > that Iroko has done very well in markets outside of the core Europe
    > base and is growing sales at a very brisk rate. Hard to know actuals
    > when sales partners like Chiesi for Europe are all privately held.
    >
    > 2) Aggrastat (a "GPIIb/IIIa") has had the most studies published
    > in the last 3 yrs compared to competitors and there is a very complete
    > meta-analysis of Aggrastat studies just published in the EHJ.
    >
    > Like the 1st "commenter," thank you for sharing an insightful commentary!
    Oct 7, 2009. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Opportunity Amongst Uncertainty (OTC:MCUJ) [View instapost]
    A follow-up to your article.
    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    Oct 6, 2009. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soligenix: The Next Cell Therapeutics Comeback Story? [View instapost]
    Thanks for that insight. The strength the current management and the strength of the Sigma Tau investment speaks alot to what twe can anticipate the future to be. The current endpoints for the OrBec GVHD trial are likely to be met, based on the strength and significance of these endpoints from the last trial. Obviously that is what Sigma Tau is betting on.....I too think it is a good bet.


    On Oct 03 09:01 PM halochief007 wrote:

    > Chris Shaber the CEO has run three or four phase three studies and
    > all have have met their primary endpoint. He and Evan Myrianthopolous
    > have skin in the game so they try to do financings with the least
    > dilution possible, unfortuately sometimes the market doesn't cooperate.
    > This last financing led by Sigma Tau for about 4.4 million dollars
    > was done at market with only 50 percent warrant coverage. Pretty
    > strong in this day and age. It shows you that the investors in the
    > deal are looking toward the future.
    > I hope this helps.
    Oct 5, 2009. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soligenix: The Next Cell Therapeutics Comeback Story? [View instapost]
    I also bought quite a few CTIC lottery tickets at about 5 cents, and I was suprised when they announced the pixantrone phase III results the stock moved from 5 cents to 12 cents in about 10 days. Quite underwhelmed with the response, I sold then as I feared the next PR would be about bankruptcy and the sale of all their assets. As well, knowing the competition for pixantrone out there from big pharma fishing for the same indications pixantrone was (Dasatinib, Rituximab, Velcade, 20 others; not to mention that Zevalin itself was competition.) I didnt see how CTIC has a chance (I still dont); so I sold. We all know what happened shortly after that....this is the inspiration for my article.
    Anyway, SNGX senior management are all quite new, frankly. Many were hired just before or just after the failed orBec trial in 2007. Before them, the company has a long history of slow cash burn, clean balance sheet, and virtually no dilution, all indications that they were quite competent in the business end of things. Forbes has a profile of the current CEO that is most impressive, and whose experience is right in line with what is needed for approval (regulatory affairs experience) and their liposome drug delivery systems. people.forbes.com/prof... Robert Brey, the chief scientific officer, was also the VP at Endorex and brings vaccine experience to the table. Brian Hamilton, the cheif medical officer, came from Astra Zeneca and is a recognized expert on GVHD and the use of steroids. A poster even told me about the VP of accounting, Chris Schnittker, who he had personal experience with at Micromet and thought highly of. Finally Sigma Tau's investment is the most comforting- it is substantial, and Claudio Cavazza is known as a brilliant scientist and savvy investor. They seem to have a "dream team" assembled and a solif plan to bring orBec and other pipeline drugs to market. Follow the money, as they say, and the money is going into SNGX....


    On Oct 02 02:13 AM kastlem wrote:

    > I was in CTIC from 5 cents until selling the last of my position
    > recently. Pity as Pix is excellent and has a wider market than just
    > 3rd line refractory NHL (trials for 1st line to replace Doxorubicin
    > ongoing, also being trialed for MS and I would expect MG eventually).
    > Opaxio was never a favorite of mine, Brostallicin looks good so far.
    > Management is a major problem there, no secret. As a long time RN
    > specializing in Neonatal ICU I was also in DSCO as their synthetic
    > product Surfaxin is IMPO is superior to bovine preps currently in
    > use. If they can get Aero-Surf to market, it will revolutionize that
    > market for those preemies who do not require long term intubation,
    > reduce BPD/RDS etc. Anyway, point is I got out due to management
    > which turned out to be a correct decision (new CEO now as you probably
    > know, safe to be back in the proverbial water since that change:-).
    > Clearly even with a great pipeline management can make or break a
    > company. Can you shed any light on how effective management at SNGX
    > is?
    Oct 2, 2009. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soligenix: The Next Cell Therapeutics Comeback Story? [View instapost]
    Thanks for the critique- I appreciate feedbak positive or negative; rewrites are always necessary. The article was no meant to be negative but to be fair- SNGX at first glance has many reasons to be written off, but any closer look reveals some exciting potential. The reason I spent so much time comparing SNGX to CTIC was to demonstrate how investor opinion (as reflected by stock price) can be so wrong- both in the case of CTIC and SNGX. The take-home message is that CTIC investors have placed incredible value on potential assets that, in my opinion, pale in comparison to potential assets of SNGX. The first phase III trial of orBec were quite successful in all aspects except for the main endpoint of the trial. The desing of the new phase III trial nearly guarantee sucess and FDA approval as the endpoints the second round is based on were successful the first round. I think this point is clear by Sigma Tau's investment of up to $30MM in gaining an indication for orBec. As well, the SNGX balance sheet is devoid of long term debt, they continue to receive significant support for their vaccine pipeline research from NIH, and they have very enticing IP for drug formulation that could result in significant revenue. Meanwhile, CTIC, with its market cap over 10X or SNGX, has a drug (pixantrone) with limited use and a single pipeline of opaxio. In my opinion, SNGX should be worth at least as much as CTIC, and that is the point I was tring to make. I agree the article is quite long, but in the end, hopefully the reader learns an awful lot about SNGX as part of their own due diligence.

    On Oct 01 12:23 PM kastlem wrote:

    > Just wanted to add: Do not take my above comment above wrongly! I
    > would not have bothered with it if I did not see real potential for
    > Joseph to become a highly valued blogger in biotech. I apologize
    > to Joseph for putting the critique here (and yes, I didn't have my
    > glasses on and made a few typos above LOL! ). Now I am following,
    > I look forward to seeing more from him, and will refrain from offering
    > further such criticisms in this forum.
    Oct 1, 2009. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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