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Joseph L. Shaefer  

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  • Is It Too Late To Buy European Equities?
    Thu, Apr. 16 BUD, RDS.A, RDS.B 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Many pundits are already calling this a crowded trade.
    • I disagree!
    • A strong US dollar makes European multinationals more competitive.
    • Ultimately, it's all about the earnings.
  • Market Crash? Here's How I'm Beginning To Protect My Positions
    Wed, Apr. 15 AAPL, MSFT, GOOG 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Just because the bull is old, it doesn't mean it's ready to die.
    • Just because the market is over-bought, doesn't mean it has to decline.
    • But the intelligent investor might do well to at least think about protecting against the "possibility!"
  • What Special Forces Can Teach Us About Investing
    Thu, Mar. 19 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Seriously, we can learn much from SF:
    • Don't hurry when you should be moving low and slow.
    • "Improvise, Adapt and Overcome.".
    • And so many more...!
  • NORW:​ A Solid Country, Solid Stocks And A Great Price
    Mon, Mar. 16 NORW 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Norway is one the few nations with a credit rating of AAA.
    • That's higher than the U.S. for good reason.
    • NORW's portfolio holds some remarkable companies.
    • At this price, what's not to like?
  • If You Could Buy Only 2...
    Fri, Mar. 6 RSP, PFODX 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The prevailing wisdom is that individual investors should let index funds do the work for them.
    • I think that's wrong, but IF I could only do a single 60/40 split, as too many writers recommend.
    • ...here is the one I would suggest for your due diligence!
  • Is India The Next China?
    Thu, Feb. 26 INCO, MINDX 33 Comments

    Summary

    • No, it isn't.
    • But it may prove to be better for your portfolio!
    • Here's why.
  • Bull Markets Climb A Wall Of Worry -- So Where Are We Now?
    Fri, Feb. 20 ACWDX, AKREX, BSJF 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
    • Bull markets end when no one is any longer worried about anything.
    • There plenty to worry about right now.
    • Does that mean we should expect a good market going forward?
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio, Step 2 Of 2
    Thu, Jan. 22 ACWDX, DBEF, DES 19 Comments

    Summary

    • In step 1, we focused on asset classes and how asset allocation can make us better investors.
    • Now we take a look at how these asset classes are correlated to each other (or not!).
    • And we offer for your due diligence the ETFs and funds we believe are superior to the "usual suspects'.
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1)
    Mon, Jan. 19 67 Comments

    Summary

    • Why obsess about what will happen this coming week?
    • That's the job of people who get paid by the word.
    • Why not take the road less traveled and ignore 90% of the hullabaloo?!!
  • How Is January 2015 Different From January 2014?
    Thu, Jan. 15 DIA, SPY, QQQ 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Is it really that different? Not so far. And that would be a "good" thing.
    • Let’s take a look at a chart of each before we listen to those who proclaim “This is A New Bear!”.
    • It might be. But 10 days or 20 days of much-needed correction do not make it so….
  • Where Is The Market Going? Separating The Signal From The Noise
    Thu, Jan. 8 16 Comments

    Summary

    • No one "knows" where the market will close tomorrow, let alone this year.
    • That doesn't stop gurus, seers, and writers from telling us which indicators will give us that inside edge.
    • Read enough of them -- or even two -- and you realize you're right back where you started.
    • Instead, just concentrate on these important questions for your portfolio strategy.
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It?
    Dec. 16, 2014 BP, CRR, NE 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Oil has sunk like a stone in water.
    • Simultaneously, the market seems to be giving us the correction it meant to give us in October.
    • The US economy is doing great absent any Fed intervention so I think this might be just a short-term pullback in the market. (We'll see!).
    • No matter the market, I think oil stocks are way oversold. A low price for oil begets lower supply which lessens the supply/demand imbalance and raises prices.
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0
    Dec. 3, 2014 COP, CRR, EC 32 Comments

    Summary

    • OPEC has badly over-estimated its pricing power.
    • ...and seriously underestimated American ingenuity, entrepreneurship and technology.
    • Here's how we are investing with this in mind. The price of oil itself is cyclical.
    • But great companies in this sector simply deal with that cyclicality to survive and thrive.
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3)
    Nov. 27, 2014 BP, CNQ, EC 109 Comments

    Summary

    • The oil and gas sector has gone down in 2014 while the rest of the market has gone up.
    • The confluence of OPEC’s meeting, winter in the Northern Hemisphere and global refineries coming back online may change this!
    • In Parts 1 and 2, we discussed Equipment Manufacturers, Storage and Transport Firms, Drillers and other Service Providers, and Supply and Demand Factors.
    • Now we’ll talk about Big Oil - the integrated firms - Canadian contenders, Energy ETFs, and 4 Special Situations.
    • The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree with our analysis, the time to buy is now.
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II)
    Nov. 15, 2014 ATW, COP, ESV 93 Comments

    Summary

    • “The market” has done well this year. The S&P, the best of the bunch, is up just a smidgen over 10%.
    • The sector that has the greatest history of “reversion to the mean” is the Energy sector.
    • We discussed the Equipment Manufacturers and the Storage and Transport Firms in Part I.
    • Now let’s review Supply & Demand Factors in Oil & Gas, and the Drillers and other Service Providers.
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part I)
    Nov. 14, 2014 BHI, EVEP, OKE 126 Comments

    Summary

    • “The market” has done well this year. The S&P, the best of the bunch, is up over 10%.
    • How about you? If you haven’t kept pace, here’s a rock-solid sector that has hit a temporary speed bump.
    • If history is any guide - and it is - these great companies won’t stay cheap for long.
    • The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree, the time to buy is now.
  • Possible Market-Moving Events Week Of Oct 27-Oct 31, 2014
    Oct. 28, 2014 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Use this guide to help you make Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation decisions.
    • Geopolitical as well as economic events influence market direction and volatility. Here are the biggest "known" events occurring this week.
    • We are long-term investors - but at critical market turns, the short term is also key!
    • The items in bold are the ones we believe are most likely to have the greatest market effect this week.
  • We Warned You Early About This Correction, What Are We Doing Now?
    Oct. 17, 2014 PCI, PCY, PFODX 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Two of my last three articles warned of the coming correction.
    • It’s here.
    • So - what’s the best thing to do today?
  • Don't Do Something (Anything!) - Just Sit There (Calmly)
    Sep. 28, 2014 PFODX, RSIVX, PCY 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Truth or Dare: Do you really believe that trees grow to the heavens?
    • That stock markets do best when everyone loves them and investors are fully invested?
    • If so, don't waste your time here! We believe this is the time to protect what you've gained.
    • Here's how:
  • Four For The Long Term, Two For Today
    Sep. 12, 2014 CFRHF, HESAY, PRDSY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • High end luxury goods makers are currently dead in the water.
    • A few have grabbed the fickle attention of investors, but there are six that are flat or down.
    • ... some of which have withstood the zig-zags of fashion foibles for as long as 100 years!
  • Build A 'Whatever Happens' Portfolio... Now
    Editors' Pick • Aug. 15, 2014 PCY, PHDG, VNQ 101 Comments

    Summary

    • Since no one "knows" what the market will do, we have created a "whatever happens" portfolio.
    • Comprised of different asset classes, we are positioned for almost any scenario.
    • We are in the funds, ETFs and stocks with the highest volume and liquidity so we can move quickly as the market tells us to!
  • What A Wonderful Market (And Where This Leads Us)
    Jul. 7, 2014 VWO, EWC, EWA 12 Comments

    Summary

    • I don't "know" what the market will do this week or this month and neither does anyone else.
    • I'd like to see a continued rise, but history and experience say there will soon be an Uh-Oh Moment.
    • Here's how we're investing for uncertainty: keeping dividend and income holdings as a cushion and buying from among this very small universe of ETFs.
  • Stop Blaming The Weather: It's Just Plain A Lousy Recovery
    Jun. 18, 2014 DIA, SPY, QQQ 29 Comments

    Summary

    • The winter of 2014 was harsh for much of the country.
    • The rest of the country had a milder-than-normal winter!
    • Our economy isn't sluggish because of the winter; it's sluggish because of more important causes.
    • Here's what some of them are; here's how we're investing as a result.
  • Afraid Of A Market Decline? Consider These Alternatives
    May. 25, 2014 DBA, DJP, HYD 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has churned all year. Today, the Dow is up just 0.2% after 5 months of "new highs"!
    • The S&P is up 2.8%, the NASDAQ 0.2%, and the small cap Russell 2000 is still underwater.
    • If you are concerned that "a market that can't go up will go down," here are some excellent alternatives.
  • Ding! Ding! Ding! Can You Hear The Bell Signaling A Top?
    May. 15, 2014 VQT, HYLD, DBA 36 Comments

    Summary

    • On March 3, 2009, we advised the bear was ending. It did.
    • Today, we are advising that we believe the bull is dying for this cycle.
    • Below is our logic -- along with our recommendations to protect your portfolio and possibly enjoy a gain.
  • Markets Go Up And Down. What To Buy Now... And Later!
    Apr. 21, 2014 VQT, PHDG, SPY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is priced for perfection.
    • Expecting significant improvement from these lofty valuations is a fool's errand.
    • How we are positioning for a possible decline.
    • ... and what we plan to buy as it unfolds.
  • Are Earnings Important? Yes, But... Revenues Count For More!
    Mar. 17, 2014 IXC, XLY, XLV 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Too many companies are increasing earnings solely by layoffs and other cost-cutting.
    • There are a few sectors and industries, however, that are growing revenues.
    • A company can only "cut" so far; we need to invest in those firms that grow revenues and earnings.
    • Here are our favorite sectors that do both.
  • Crimeus Interruptus
    Mar. 17, 2014 10 Comments

    Summary

    • What Russia does in Crimea is important -- this week.
    • Next month? Not so much.
    • A year from now? What was all the fuss about?
    • Don't let transitory events derail your investment strategy.
  • Are You 'Relatively' Successful? There's A Smarter Way To Invest...
    Feb. 4, 2014 TDIV, DIA, SPY 8 Comments
  • Controlled Burns Lead To New Growth (In Markets As Well As In Forests)
    Jan. 31, 2014 IBM, CSCO, MSFT 4 Comments
  • 2013 Was Great! Are There Any Bargains Left For 2014? (Part II)
    Jan. 2, 2014 RYN, EVEP, TGT 14 Comments
  • 2013 Was Great! Are There Any Bargains Left For 2014? (Part I)
    Jan. 2, 2014 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments