View Joseph L. Shaefer's Articles BY TICKER:
Is It Too Late To Buy European Equities?
- Many pundits are already calling this a crowded trade.
- I disagree!
- A strong US dollar makes European multinationals more competitive.
- Ultimately, it's all about the earnings.
Market Crash? Here's How I'm Beginning To Protect My Positions
- Just because the bull is old, it doesn't mean it's ready to die.
- Just because the market is over-bought, doesn't mean it has to decline.
- But the intelligent investor might do well to at least think about protecting against the "possibility!"
What Special Forces Can Teach Us About Investing
Thu, Mar. 19 • 25 Comments
- Seriously, we can learn much from SF:
- Don't hurry when you should be moving low and slow.
- "Improvise, Adapt and Overcome.".
- And so many more...!
NORW: A Solid Country, Solid Stocks And A Great Price
- Norway is one the few nations with a credit rating of AAA.
- That's higher than the U.S. for good reason.
- NORW's portfolio holds some remarkable companies.
- At this price, what's not to like?
If You Could Buy Only 2...
- The prevailing wisdom is that individual investors should let index funds do the work for them.
- I think that's wrong, but IF I could only do a single 60/40 split, as too many writers recommend.
- ...here is the one I would suggest for your due diligence!
Is India The Next China?
- No, it isn't.
- But it may prove to be better for your portfolio!
- Here's why.
Bull Markets Climb A Wall Of Worry -- So Where Are We Now?
- Bull markets climb a wall of worry.
- Bull markets end when no one is any longer worried about anything.
- There plenty to worry about right now.
- Does that mean we should expect a good market going forward?
How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio, Step 2 Of 2
- In step 1, we focused on asset classes and how asset allocation can make us better investors.
- Now we take a look at how these asset classes are correlated to each other (or not!).
- And we offer for your due diligence the ETFs and funds we believe are superior to the "usual suspects'.
How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1)
Mon, Jan. 19 • 67 Comments
- Why obsess about what will happen this coming week?
- That's the job of people who get paid by the word.
- Why not take the road less traveled and ignore 90% of the hullabaloo?!!
How Is January 2015 Different From January 2014?
- Is it really that different? Not so far. And that would be a "good" thing.
- Let’s take a look at a chart of each before we listen to those who proclaim “This is A New Bear!”.
- It might be. But 10 days or 20 days of much-needed correction do not make it so….
Where Is The Market Going? Separating The Signal From The Noise
Thu, Jan. 8 • 16 Comments
- No one "knows" where the market will close tomorrow, let alone this year.
- That doesn't stop gurus, seers, and writers from telling us which indicators will give us that inside edge.
- Read enough of them -- or even two -- and you realize you're right back where you started.
- Instead, just concentrate on these important questions for your portfolio strategy.
Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It?
- Oil has sunk like a stone in water.
- Simultaneously, the market seems to be giving us the correction it meant to give us in October.
- The US economy is doing great absent any Fed intervention so I think this might be just a short-term pullback in the market. (We'll see!).
- No matter the market, I think oil stocks are way oversold. A low price for oil begets lower supply which lessens the supply/demand imbalance and raises prices.
Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0
- OPEC has badly over-estimated its pricing power.
- ...and seriously underestimated American ingenuity, entrepreneurship and technology.
- Here's how we are investing with this in mind. The price of oil itself is cyclical.
- But great companies in this sector simply deal with that cyclicality to survive and thrive.
The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3)
- The oil and gas sector has gone down in 2014 while the rest of the market has gone up.
- The confluence of OPEC’s meeting, winter in the Northern Hemisphere and global refineries coming back online may change this!
- In Parts 1 and 2, we discussed Equipment Manufacturers, Storage and Transport Firms, Drillers and other Service Providers, and Supply and Demand Factors.
- Now we’ll talk about Big Oil - the integrated firms - Canadian contenders, Energy ETFs, and 4 Special Situations.
- The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree with our analysis, the time to buy is now.
The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II)
- “The market” has done well this year. The S&P, the best of the bunch, is up just a smidgen over 10%.
- The sector that has the greatest history of “reversion to the mean” is the Energy sector.
- We discussed the Equipment Manufacturers and the Storage and Transport Firms in Part I.
- Now let’s review Supply & Demand Factors in Oil & Gas, and the Drillers and other Service Providers.
The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part I)
- “The market” has done well this year. The S&P, the best of the bunch, is up over 10%.
- How about you? If you haven’t kept pace, here’s a rock-solid sector that has hit a temporary speed bump.
- If history is any guide - and it is - these great companies won’t stay cheap for long.
- The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree, the time to buy is now.
Possible Market-Moving Events Week Of Oct 27-Oct 31, 2014
Oct. 28, 2014 • 3 Comments
- Use this guide to help you make Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation decisions.
- Geopolitical as well as economic events influence market direction and volatility. Here are the biggest "known" events occurring this week.
- We are long-term investors - but at critical market turns, the short term is also key!
- The items in bold are the ones we believe are most likely to have the greatest market effect this week.
We Warned You Early About This Correction, What Are We Doing Now?
- Two of my last three articles warned of the coming correction.
- It’s here.
- So - what’s the best thing to do today?
Don't Do Something (Anything!) - Just Sit There (Calmly)
- Truth or Dare: Do you really believe that trees grow to the heavens?
- That stock markets do best when everyone loves them and investors are fully invested?
- If so, don't waste your time here! We believe this is the time to protect what you've gained.
- Here's how:
Four For The Long Term, Two For Today
- High end luxury goods makers are currently dead in the water.
- A few have grabbed the fickle attention of investors, but there are six that are flat or down.
- ... some of which have withstood the zig-zags of fashion foibles for as long as 100 years!
Build A 'Whatever Happens' Portfolio... Now
- Since no one "knows" what the market will do, we have created a "whatever happens" portfolio.
- Comprised of different asset classes, we are positioned for almost any scenario.
- We are in the funds, ETFs and stocks with the highest volume and liquidity so we can move quickly as the market tells us to!
What A Wonderful Market (And Where This Leads Us)
- I don't "know" what the market will do this week or this month and neither does anyone else.
- I'd like to see a continued rise, but history and experience say there will soon be an Uh-Oh Moment.
- Here's how we're investing for uncertainty: keeping dividend and income holdings as a cushion and buying from among this very small universe of ETFs.
Stop Blaming The Weather: It's Just Plain A Lousy Recovery
- The winter of 2014 was harsh for much of the country.
- The rest of the country had a milder-than-normal winter!
- Our economy isn't sluggish because of the winter; it's sluggish because of more important causes.
- Here's what some of them are; here's how we're investing as a result.
Afraid Of A Market Decline? Consider These Alternatives
- The market has churned all year. Today, the Dow is up just 0.2% after 5 months of "new highs"!
- The S&P is up 2.8%, the NASDAQ 0.2%, and the small cap Russell 2000 is still underwater.
- If you are concerned that "a market that can't go up will go down," here are some excellent alternatives.
Ding! Ding! Ding! Can You Hear The Bell Signaling A Top?
- On March 3, 2009, we advised the bear was ending. It did.
- Today, we are advising that we believe the bull is dying for this cycle.
- Below is our logic -- along with our recommendations to protect your portfolio and possibly enjoy a gain.
Markets Go Up And Down. What To Buy Now... And Later!
- The market is priced for perfection.
- Expecting significant improvement from these lofty valuations is a fool's errand.
- How we are positioning for a possible decline.
- ... and what we plan to buy as it unfolds.
Are Earnings Important? Yes, But... Revenues Count For More!
- Too many companies are increasing earnings solely by layoffs and other cost-cutting.
- There are a few sectors and industries, however, that are growing revenues.
- A company can only "cut" so far; we need to invest in those firms that grow revenues and earnings.
- Here are our favorite sectors that do both.
Mar. 17, 2014 • 10 Comments
- What Russia does in Crimea is important -- this week.
- Next month? Not so much.
- A year from now? What was all the fuss about?
- Don't let transitory events derail your investment strategy.
- Are You 'Relatively' Successful? There's A Smarter Way To Invest...
- Controlled Burns Lead To New Growth (In Markets As Well As In Forests)
- 2013 Was Great! Are There Any Bargains Left For 2014? (Part II)
- 2013 Was Great! Are There Any Bargains Left For 2014? (Part I)