Seeking Alpha

Joseph L. Shaefer

 
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  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part II)
    Sat, Nov. 15 ATW, COP, ESV 79 Comments

    Summary

    • “The market” has done well this year. The S&P, the best of the bunch, is up just a smidgen over 10%.
    • The sector that has the greatest history of “reversion to the mean” is the Energy sector.
    • We discussed the Equipment Manufacturers and the Storage and Transport Firms in Part I.
    • Now let’s review Supply & Demand Factors in Oil & Gas, and the Drillers and other Service Providers.
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part I)
    Fri, Nov. 14 BHI, EVEP, OKE 120 Comments

    Summary

    • “The market” has done well this year. The S&P, the best of the bunch, is up over 10%.
    • How about you? If you haven’t kept pace, here’s a rock-solid sector that has hit a temporary speed bump.
    • If history is any guide - and it is - these great companies won’t stay cheap for long.
    • The time to do your due diligence is today - and if you agree, the time to buy is now.
  • Possible Market-Moving Events Week Of Oct 27-Oct 31, 2014
    Tue, Oct. 28 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Use this guide to help you make Portfolio Strategy & Asset Allocation decisions.
    • Geopolitical as well as economic events influence market direction and volatility. Here are the biggest "known" events occurring this week.
    • We are long-term investors - but at critical market turns, the short term is also key!
    • The items in bold are the ones we believe are most likely to have the greatest market effect this week.
  • We Warned You Early About This Correction, What Are We Doing Now?
    Fri, Oct. 17 PCI, PCY, PFODX 23 Comments

    Summary

    • Two of my last three articles warned of the coming correction.
    • It’s here.
    • So - what’s the best thing to do today?
  • Don't Do Something (Anything!) - Just Sit There (Calmly)
    Sun, Sep. 28 PFODX, RSIVX, PCY 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Truth or Dare: Do you really believe that trees grow to the heavens?
    • That stock markets do best when everyone loves them and investors are fully invested?
    • If so, don't waste your time here! We believe this is the time to protect what you've gained.
    • Here's how:
  • Four For The Long Term, Two For Today
    Fri, Sep. 12 CFRHF, HESAY, PRDSY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • High end luxury goods makers are currently dead in the water.
    • A few have grabbed the fickle attention of investors, but there are six that are flat or down.
    • ... some of which have withstood the zig-zags of fashion foibles for as long as 100 years!
  • Build A 'Whatever Happens' Portfolio... Now
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Aug. 15 PCY, PHDG, VNQ 101 Comments

    Summary

    • Since no one "knows" what the market will do, we have created a "whatever happens" portfolio.
    • Comprised of different asset classes, we are positioned for almost any scenario.
    • We are in the funds, ETFs and stocks with the highest volume and liquidity so we can move quickly as the market tells us to!
  • What A Wonderful Market (And Where This Leads Us)
    Mon, Jul. 7 VWO, EWC, EWA 12 Comments

    Summary

    • I don't "know" what the market will do this week or this month and neither does anyone else.
    • I'd like to see a continued rise, but history and experience say there will soon be an Uh-Oh Moment.
    • Here's how we're investing for uncertainty: keeping dividend and income holdings as a cushion and buying from among this very small universe of ETFs.
  • Stop Blaming The Weather: It's Just Plain A Lousy Recovery
    Wed, Jun. 18 DIA, SPY, QQQ 29 Comments

    Summary

    • The winter of 2014 was harsh for much of the country.
    • The rest of the country had a milder-than-normal winter!
    • Our economy isn't sluggish because of the winter; it's sluggish because of more important causes.
    • Here's what some of them are; here's how we're investing as a result.
  • Afraid Of A Market Decline? Consider These Alternatives
    Sun, May. 25 DBA, DJP, HYD 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The market has churned all year. Today, the Dow is up just 0.2% after 5 months of "new highs"!
    • The S&P is up 2.8%, the NASDAQ 0.2%, and the small cap Russell 2000 is still underwater.
    • If you are concerned that "a market that can't go up will go down," here are some excellent alternatives.
  • Ding! Ding! Ding! Can You Hear The Bell Signaling A Top?
    Thu, May. 15 VQT, HYLD, DBA 36 Comments

    Summary

    • On March 3, 2009, we advised the bear was ending. It did.
    • Today, we are advising that we believe the bull is dying for this cycle.
    • Below is our logic -- along with our recommendations to protect your portfolio and possibly enjoy a gain.
  • Markets Go Up And Down. What To Buy Now... And Later!
    Mon, Apr. 21 VQT, PHDG, SPY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • The market is priced for perfection.
    • Expecting significant improvement from these lofty valuations is a fool's errand.
    • How we are positioning for a possible decline.
    • ... and what we plan to buy as it unfolds.
  • Are Earnings Important? Yes, But... Revenues Count For More!
    Mon, Mar. 17 IXC, XLY, XLV 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Too many companies are increasing earnings solely by layoffs and other cost-cutting.
    • There are a few sectors and industries, however, that are growing revenues.
    • A company can only "cut" so far; we need to invest in those firms that grow revenues and earnings.
    • Here are our favorite sectors that do both.
  • Crimeus Interruptus
    Mon, Mar. 17 10 Comments

    Summary

    • What Russia does in Crimea is important -- this week.
    • Next month? Not so much.
    • A year from now? What was all the fuss about?
    • Don't let transitory events derail your investment strategy.
  • Are You 'Relatively' Successful? There's A Smarter Way To Invest...
    Tue, Feb. 4 TDIV, DIA, SPY 8 Comments
  • Controlled Burns Lead To New Growth (In Markets As Well As In Forests)
    Fri, Jan. 31 IBM, CSCO, MSFT 4 Comments
  • 2013 Was Great! Are There Any Bargains Left For 2014? (Part II)
    Thu, Jan. 2 RYN, EVEP, TGT 14 Comments
  • 2013 Was Great! Are There Any Bargains Left For 2014? (Part I)
    Thu, Jan. 2 SPY, DIA, QQQ 2 Comments
  • Who Are The Best Forecasters For 2014? And Beyond?
    Dec. 31, 2013 SPY, DIA, QQQ 26 Comments
  • 5 Depressed Companies Ready For A Rebound: Worthy Of A December Buy
    Dec. 13, 2013 AEO, ISRG, LQDT 3 Comments
  • Natural Resource Partners: Left For Dead, A Stirring Lazarus
       • Nov. 14, 2013 NRP 8 Comments
  • Trinity Industries: They've Been Workin' On The Railcars
    Oct. 25, 2013 TRN 9 Comments
  • The Chemical And Mining Co. Of Chile Is A DOG! I Think We'll Adopt It...
    Oct. 25, 2013 SQM 25 Comments
  • Why I'm Now Buying IBM (And Other 'Old' Tech Companies)
    Oct. 22, 2013 AAPL, ORCL, CSCO 10 Comments
  • Thinking Of Investing With A Hedge Fund? Consider These ETFs Instead
    Sep. 26, 2013 XLV, XLU, HUSE 6 Comments
  • Tesco: A Defensive Selection For A Rough Patch In The Markets
    Aug. 17, 2013 TSCDY 6 Comments
  • Is It Time To Take Some Chips Off The Table?
    Jul. 11, 2013 TBF, TBT, SPY 85 Comments
  • Afraid You've Been Too Conservative And Missed The Market?
    May. 13, 2013 SPY, QQQ, DIA 16 Comments
  • There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard
    May. 12, 2013 SPY, DIA, QQQ 34 Comments
  • Trend Anticipation Strategy: What We Are Buying And Holding Now
    May. 12, 2013 QABA, RDS.A, SLB Comment!
  • Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy
    Apr. 14, 2013 RCL, PACD, RTN 8 Comments
  • Economic Malaise Not Affecting These Countries (Or Companies)
    Mar. 10, 2013 AZN, BHI, BP 14 Comments