It is an xlnt site, Maya. I've been a bit out of touch with the 'Gades while in Norway looking for interesting ideas. I have an account here but typically only write for SA about firms that have liquidity in the US. I have started to dupe some SA articles at investing.com and really like their resources. (I seldom do anything exclusive to any one website.) If I see anything interesting but illiquid in US I may caveat it a such and mention it only in passing because, as Phil Ochs used to sing, "I'm sure it wouldn't interest / any body / outside of a small circle of friends..."
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
Actually, sir, for about 6 months about a year ago or so Seeking Alpha forced new subscribers to subscribe to 20 authors or assigned them 20 at random. SA is in the business of using page views as a selling point for advertisers with click-throughs. I don't begrudge them that; they were simply feeling their way trying to maximize their returns.
However, I specifically asked NOT to be included in that process because I believed it to be disingenuous. I believe a contributor should gather viewers not because they are "assigned" them -- which for many authors amounted to many thousands of subscribers every month -- but because they like the articles or are referred by others. I am honored to have so many loyal readers who actually "read" what I write, whether they agree with a particular article or analysis or not. But if you keep searching, you will find contributors with 70,000 and 80,000 followers. Whether those are real or remnants of the assignment process I don't know.
I do know that if you try your best to present interesting ideas in a literate fashion, you will gain a loyal following here -- and I wish you nothing but the best as a relatively new contributor in doing so! With respect, JS
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
HSGFX may work well if you "know" when to be defensive. But caveat emptor -- Lipper gives it the lowest rating for total return and consistent return, though its highest for preservation LONG TERM. In the past year however, HSGFX returned -11.67% versus the S&P's 27.60%...
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
History. My own of 40 years and the market charts of 114 years. We'll see. No one has a crystal ball. That's why I turn to the long history of markets.
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
Yours is a fine question / springboard for discussion. You are quite correct that the markets are 'always' subject to subjective interpretation. I wrote an article for SA on Election Day 2012 in the midst of huge pessimism saying what we were buying, not selling. In that case I was correct. In another SA article published Mar 6, 2009, I predicted the end of the cyclical bear while most were predicting a further 2000 points down on the Dow. I've also had my share of misses. In all cases, however, my goal is to mitigate the extremes and take our bite out of the middle. So far that's worked well for us.
As for the empirical evidence you are looking for, I just spent 15 minutes looking for one of my previous SA articles where I showed the chart of the Dow since 1890 (courtesy of my colleague in the business Sy Harding.) I couldn't find it and am about to board a plane so I will instead note that I place this chart on page 6 in EVERY issue of The Investor's Edge (R) to keep our subscribers focused on the long term. I can't find it on SA, but I provide a complete (recent but not current) issue for download at our website http://bit.ly/123y9Op if you'd like to see what I see. While I'm airborne, frequent readers here at SA may be able to provide you with the url to the old article...
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and so, it sees, are the published earnings figures... :<)
The Shiller PE Ratio, at 24.26, is actually at a high seldom seen in the last 100 years. (http://bit.ly/QqZ06c) And while earnings can be manipulated, revenue is a little tougher. And corporate revenues are DOWN across the board; the earnings increases of late are coming from layoffs and belt-tightening. (Or if your tin foil hat is on, from outright falsifications.)
I am no Cassandra. I've been doing this for 40 years now and I simply know that when NCGW (Nothing Can Go Wrong) in the market -- it will. If trees still don't grow to the clouds, I'd like to have some spare cash to take advantage of a better entry price...
GE has every right to decide who they want to lend to.
And we have every right to never buy another appliance, seek another loan, or buy any other consumer electronic, home improvement, healthcare, lighting or houseware item from them again. And to vote against every local electric, gas, water, nuclear, marine or aviation plant that has the GE ("Government Entity") brand on it.
Fair's fair.
Of course, you and I are making our decision as citizens with our own money and conscience. Immelt is using shareholders' money to pay for his sycophancy...
Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy [View article]
That's true. We've only done Transatlantic repositioning cruises, so we got the $250 each time. PLUS, if you are active duty or retired military, you can get the same (up to) $250 shipboard credit!
Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy [View article]
Sheesh!! You'd think if were going to have a typo, it could at least have been something like "ernings" rather than "earnings" or some such. You are correct. My original ms said $800 million and $800 MILLION IT SHOULD BE!
A tip of the hat, and thank you for your eagle eye...
QC #257, May 10, 2013 [View instapost]
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
However, I specifically asked NOT to be included in that process because I believed it to be disingenuous. I believe a contributor should gather viewers not because they are "assigned" them -- which for many authors amounted to many thousands of subscribers every month -- but because they like the articles or are referred by others. I am honored to have so many loyal readers who actually "read" what I write, whether they agree with a particular article or analysis or not. But if you keep searching, you will find contributors with 70,000 and 80,000 followers. Whether those are real or remnants of the assignment process I don't know.
I do know that if you try your best to present interesting ideas in a literate fashion, you will gain a loyal following here -- and I wish you nothing but the best as a relatively new contributor in doing so!
With respect,
JS
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
:>))
Afraid You've Been Too Conservative And Missed The Market? [View article]
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
As for the empirical evidence you are looking for, I just spent 15 minutes looking for one of my previous SA articles where I showed the chart of the Dow since 1890 (courtesy of my colleague in the business Sy Harding.) I couldn't find it and am about to board a plane so I will instead note that I place this chart on page 6 in EVERY issue of The Investor's Edge (R) to keep our subscribers focused on the long term. I can't find it on SA, but I provide a complete (recent but not current) issue for download at our website http://bit.ly/123y9Op if you'd like to see what I see. While I'm airborne, frequent readers here at SA may be able to provide you with the url to the old article...
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
JS
There Is No Alternative? That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard [View article]
The Shiller PE Ratio, at 24.26, is actually at a high seldom seen in the last 100 years. (http://bit.ly/QqZ06c) And while earnings can be manipulated, revenue is a little tougher. And corporate revenues are DOWN across the board; the earnings increases of late are coming from layoffs and belt-tightening. (Or if your tin foil hat is on, from outright falsifications.)
I am no Cassandra. I've been doing this for 40 years now and I simply know that when NCGW (Nothing Can Go Wrong) in the market -- it will. If trees still don't grow to the clouds, I'd like to have some spare cash to take advantage of a better entry price...
QC #256, April 12, 2013 [View instapost]
And we have every right to never buy another appliance, seek another loan, or buy any other consumer electronic, home improvement, healthcare, lighting or houseware item from them again. And to vote against every local electric, gas, water, nuclear, marine or aviation plant that has the GE ("Government Entity") brand on it.
Fair's fair.
Of course, you and I are making our decision as citizens with our own money and conscience. Immelt is using shareholders' money to pay for his sycophancy...
Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy [View article]
Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy [View article]
Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy [View article]
Unsure About Markets? Why These Great Companies Are A Good Buy [View article]
A tip of the hat, and thank you for your eagle eye...
Best,
Joseph