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Joseph L. Shaefer  

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  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1) [View article]
    I mentioned this above but it bears repeating...

    When I transferred the chart, the text box giving the source did not come over with it. Mea culpa. Here is the source of the chart (NovelInvestor.com) -- updated through the end of year...
    http://bit.ly/1C2sNYl
    Jan 21, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1) [View article]
    asifseemab has it correctly -- As I'll note when I publish Step 2, when I transferred the chart, the text box giving the source did not come over with it. Mea culpa. Here is the source of the chart -- updated for the end of year...
    http://bit.ly/1C2sNYl
    Jan 21, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1) [View article]
    Thank you, Catmanrog. And Congratulations! You have found a strategy that works well for you, you stick to it, and you don't need to spend countless hours obsessing over minutiae. I like your self-description here on SA -- and the names you list as well!
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1) [View article]
    There are many different ways to skin a cat, sir!

    If you are one of the few who can hold their common stocks in the face of onslaught bears like 2001 and 2008, there is no question in my mind that top quality firms will always come back. Most investors, however, benefit from greater diversification in order to stomach such a downturn invested 100% in one asset class. For most, a wipeout of that magnitude sours them at precisely the worst time to sell and they don't re-enter until nearer the worst time. That's the benefit, for most, of a slow and steady well-diversified portfolio.
    Jan 19, 2015. 04:04 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1) [View article]
    Nick, that's why I indicated here where we diverge from the "standard" AA models. We're willing to look at the macro-trends and apply some Kentucky windage. We also keep 10-15% of our portfolios outside the AA box to take advantage of some of these special situations -- but no more than that!
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A 'Lifetime' Portfolio (Step 1) [View article]
    My pleasure, sir. A picture is often worth a boatload of words!
    Jan 19, 2015. 03:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Is January 2015 Different From January 2014? [View article]
    Endurance, thank you for yyour comment. You may not have noticed the other gray swans listed above to add to your litany!

    There are always differences in external events. Perhaps you overlooked, just above, "How is this January different from last January? Every month in the market beats to its own rhythm, as does ever single trading day." We will always find different events to point to from year to year as the market climbs its wall of worry or doesn't. In January 2014 it was simply a different set of concerns and cautions.

    Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The more things <seem to> change, the more they stay the same.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Market Going? Separating The Signal From The Noise [View article]
    Another first comment at SA... Welcome!

    Allow me to re-phrase the above if you are concerned about all that ponderous analysis...
    -- Do you invest in the USA? That would be the geo/political region. Canada, Colombia, Croatia? Same same.
    --Do you believe the US economy is in good shape or on the right track to being in good shape? Do you think the USA is a nation that respects property and shareholder rights and the rule of law? That would mean you have at least a basic understanding of the economics and politics that would affect your investing here. Voila!
    I submit that if one doesn't think this through before investing in the USA, Botswana, Bangladesh or Belarus, they may as well just hand their money over to some broker and say, "Please don't hurt me."
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Alex, to further muddy the waters...
    PGS:NO is the US way of saying the symbol is *PGS* on the Oslo Børs. (Børs is the Norwegian word for the now-evolved-into-English "bourse" which means an organized marketplace where goods [and more recently stocks] are exchanged. It originally comes from Ter Buerse, the inn owned by the Van der Buerse family in Bruges in what is now Belgium. Bruges, and particularly Ter Buerse was a crossroads of trading between the Mediterranean, mostly Italian, merchants and the Hanseatic merchants of what is now Baltic Germany back in the 14th century.)
    *PGEJF* are the ordinary shares which trade in the US with dangerously light volume. I share Mercy's aversion to anemic liquidity and unconscionable spreads so in this country I buy...
    *PGSVY* which is still relatively small volume but 20,000 shares a day is OK if you are buying or selling small amounts with limit orders.
    Now -- aren't you sorry you asked? :>)
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:37 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Market Going? Separating The Signal From The Noise [View article]
    Well-said, Market Map, particularly your recognition of the (luxury of!) time to test the data! If one doesn't have years of personal experience, learn from others' experience, time and testing. The academics and research boutiques are not at all parsimonious with their findings if we but seek it out and ignore the noise of the commissioned salespeople touting their latest can't-miss stock.
    I always wait at least a week after writing for our Investors Edge subscribers, but you all have inspired me to get busy this weekend and post our most recent page 1 article here, complete with those academics' asset allocation and correlation coefficient charts. (That may sound complex but it's really just common sense with an academician's penchant for fancy titles. :>)
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Market Going? Separating The Signal From The Noise [View article]
    I most certainly did. And we followed our own advice and were subsequently stopped out of just about every position for either a small profit or a small loss when the market did a V-shaped rebound shortly thereafter. But we made that call based upon *years* of history and experience, not two days of data! :>)
    I'm honored you chose this for your first comment...
    Jan 8, 2015. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mercy, hearkening back to the previous Concentrator where you said you were avoiding the Norwegian oils, here's one of those contrarian POVs!

    I'm long PGSVY and STO.
    PGSVY at 5
    STO 1st tranche at 22 and change, next at 18.20, most recent at 16.65, blends just over 18.
    These aren't trades; I'll add more if the price declines. I'm OK having a little "dead money" that pays me divs of > 3x what Treasuries pay -- and which I consider just about as safe.
    I'm either "no fool like an old fool" or "crazy like a fox." I'll know which in a year! :>)
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Long PGSVY and STO.
    PGSVY at 5
    STO 1st tranche at 22 and change, next at 18.20, most recent at 16.65, blends just over 18.
    These aren't trades; I'll add more if the price declines. I'm OK having a little "dead money" that pays me divs of 3x + what Treasuries pay -- and which I consider just about as safe.
    I'm either "no fool like an old fool" or "crazy like a fox." I'll know which in a year! :>)
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    Hi Mike,

    Actually,Mike, almost all brokerage custodians of IRAs will allow the purchase of options. You must "qualify" based upon your stated experience, income level and goals but their logic is that buying an option is no more speculative than buying an equity. In both cases, your loss is limited to the amount you have invested.
    With long options you are trading leverage (good, if these stocks rebound) for time (limited to, in the cases above, 1 year or 2 years whereas a stock investment is "good" for many years as long as the company remains listed and in business.)
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    :>)

    Mercy is forever young.

    I'm just an old soul!
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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