Left Thursday night for a little R&R in the wine country. Just catching up with the Insta. Re AT... Even the best analysis can be be for naught when our DD is stymied by outright fraud, deception and opacity. Even the once-best like AT can take us for a ride. Ouch. We can "hope" for a rebound but as Jesse Livermore warned nearly 100 years ago, "When I have to depend upon hope in a trade I get out." I'm out of AT and will re-deploy the diminished capital where it stands a far better chance of growing than it does in AT.
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
LeBear, Great analogy of the current state of the US (dare I extrapolate to "government"?) as a certain cruise ship adrift at sea with we individuals, companies, and investors having to yet again pull it to shore and safety... Wish I'd thought of and written that!
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
Hello Artful,
Not all roads lead to Rome, but enough do that you can enjoy a successful strategy that fits you, I can have another, and someone else can have a third. Just as your way has worked for you for 40+years, so has mine and, probably like you, I'm not about to mess with success now!
Why You Must Change Your Strategy For 2013: Here's How... [View article]
southgent --
Thank you for your consistently Thorough Well-Researched Unemotional and Accurate comments and responses. It's a pleasure to read them, whether you agree with me or not!
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
Thanks, Artful. Pleasure to hear from you as well. I believe buy and hold is fruitless in secular Bears but worthwhile in secular Bulls. For that reason I will continue to do my best to analyze "more likely" and "less likely" scenarios. It isn't prediction to me, it's essential defensive thinking!! :->>
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
No wall of worry, no secular bull! I agree it looks bleak but certainly way less bleak than when Jimmy Carter left office with an economy in shambles and foreign policy disasters to match. We got through that. And the Depression. And the Panic of 1907, Reconstruction, the Civil War, and on and on. Somehow we Americans manage to muddle through and pull the pendulum back in the other direction after an excess like the current one. You and I have communicated in these pages enough that I know we shake our heads at what is, but still believe the glass is half full, not half empty!
Why You Must Change Your Strategy For 2013: Here's How... [View article]
And, even more sadly, more and more individuals think they must trade like the institutions to be successful. Au contraire -- let them play their game; we have our own.
This is as good a spot as any to compliment you on the Sri Lanka blog and particularly on the even-handed exchange of information there. Even when some commenters say some version of "What kind of idiot are you for thinking of investing there?" you are willing to listen and patiently explain the rest of the story.
For those of us who spent waaaay too much time in 3rd-world hell holes back in the day, a fresh perspective like yours reminds us that the world has changed, some places more than others. (I still keep a few Burmese kyat around to remind me that governments decide "official" exchange rates but the quick and the discreet often do considerably better!)
And for those of us who prefer to slide in sideways from time to time in frontier markets, there is always the diversification afforded by MFs, CEFs and ETFs. I recently started buying some MAINX which counts John Keells among their holdings. Sri Lanka is just 1% of their portfolio, but that's 50% more than they currently have in Japan! (Mongolia is 2.7%...)
ENOR has great holdings, as well -- including some companies I only know of because of my frequent visits there. But be careful when buying and especially when selling; while NORW typically trades 30-40,000 shares a day, keeping the bid/ask spread pretty tight, ENOR has so far only attracted about 6000 share a day trading volume...
TB, I'm on the road home so I don't have access to my copy of "Flat Tax Revolution: Using a Postcard to Abolish the IRS" by Steve Forbes but the title says it all: 1) Filing via postcard (every taxpayer and corporation pays 17%, no deductions, no credits, no special interest goodies) and 2) (better yet!) Abolish the IRS.
Some $400 billion currently going to lawyers, accountants and tax software could be used to fund entrepreneurs and other, rather more productive, enterprises...
"Flat" isn't the same as "FAIR" or any other proposal; but ANY of them would be better than the frustrating morass we are now in...
Thank you, Maya. I'm at the TD Ameritrade Institutional Conference and, counterintuitively perhaps, have barely had a chance to check the market. Heard Condaleeza Rice yesterday; Simpson and Bowles today. Appreciate your thoughts on our old favorite Enbridge and I'll keep researching to find the best of the aggregation, transport, and storage companies alongside you!
Long time no hear, Old Trader... Glad to see your comment on my article; we've had some great discussions in the past!
Norway isn't a "sector" in the Standard & Poor's traditional sense but my logic is that it comprises an important global sector of well-managed firms growing their market share globally in a nation with superb regulatory oversight and excellent corporate transparency. That's a "sector" I'll willingly embrace!
QC #254, February 22, 2013 [View instapost]
Even the best analysis can be be for naught when our DD is stymied by outright fraud, deception and opacity.
Even the once-best like AT can take us for a ride.
Ouch. We can "hope" for a rebound but as Jesse Livermore warned nearly 100 years ago, "When I have to depend upon hope in a trade I get out."
I'm out of AT and will re-deploy the diminished capital where it stands a far better chance of growing than it does in AT.
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
Great analogy of the current state of the US (dare I extrapolate to "government"?) as a certain cruise ship adrift at sea with we individuals, companies, and investors having to yet again pull it to shore and safety... Wish I'd thought of and written that!
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
Not all roads lead to Rome, but enough do that you can enjoy a successful strategy that fits you, I can have another, and someone else can have a third. Just as your way has worked for you for 40+years, so has mine and, probably like you, I'm not about to mess with success now!
Good investing,
JS
Why You Must Change Your Strategy For 2013: Here's How... [View article]
Thank you for your consistently
Thorough
Well-Researched
Unemotional and
Accurate comments and responses. It's a pleasure to read them, whether you agree with me or not!
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
The One Move You Must Prepare To Take - While Others Are Wringing Their Hands [View article]
QuickChat #253, February 5, 2013 [View instapost]
2013 -- Breakout Or Comeuppance? [View article]
Why You Must Change Your Strategy For 2013: Here's How... [View article]
QuickChat #252, January 17, 2013 [View instapost]
This is as good a spot as any to compliment you on the Sri Lanka blog and particularly on the even-handed exchange of information there. Even when some commenters say some version of "What kind of idiot are you for thinking of investing there?" you are willing to listen and patiently explain the rest of the story.
For those of us who spent waaaay too much time in 3rd-world hell holes back in the day, a fresh perspective like yours reminds us that the world has changed, some places more than others. (I still keep a few Burmese kyat around to remind me that governments decide "official" exchange rates but the quick and the discreet often do considerably better!)
And for those of us who prefer to slide in sideways from time to time in frontier markets, there is always the diversification afforded by MFs, CEFs and ETFs. I recently started buying some MAINX which counts John Keells among their holdings. Sri Lanka is just 1% of their portfolio, but that's 50% more than they currently have in Japan! (Mongolia is 2.7%...)
2013 -- Breakout Or Comeuppance? [View article]
QuickChat #252, January 17, 2013 [View instapost]
1) Filing via postcard (every taxpayer and corporation pays 17%, no deductions, no credits, no special interest goodies) and
2) (better yet!) Abolish the IRS.
Some $400 billion currently going to lawyers, accountants and tax software could be used to fund entrepreneurs and other, rather more productive, enterprises...
"Flat" isn't the same as "FAIR" or any other proposal; but ANY of them would be better than the frustrating morass we are now in...
QuickChat #252, January 17, 2013 [View instapost]
2013 -- Breakout Or Comeuppance? [View article]
2013 -- Breakout Or Comeuppance? [View article]
Norway isn't a "sector" in the Standard & Poor's traditional sense but my logic is that it comprises an important global sector of well-managed firms growing their market share globally in a nation with superb regulatory oversight and excellent corporate transparency. That's a "sector" I'll willingly embrace!