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Joseph L. Shaefer

 
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  • QuickChat #275, November 3, 2014 [View instapost]
    Maya, my apologies. I was writing Part II of the Energy article I posted on SA this morning and transferring my notes between computers. Everything after "Morning, Maya" was supposed to go in that Part II which I'll submit within the hour. It was the much more condensed thought, not the verbiage, that was supposed to go in my reply to you! So picks will come soon and if SA doesn't get it done today I'll send them to you on this QC tomorrow... As for the Terrible Towel, do you think we could now design one for the oil patch? I'd take 3 and 1 there in a Buffalo/Miami minute... :>))
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part I) [View article]
    I need to nip this misconception in the bud!
    I wrote facetiously: "If you're looking solely for current income you might buy Niska Gas Storage (NYSE:NKA) which pays at a 30% yield - but has lost 69% of its value over the last 12 months. I can name another dozen that pay double-digit yields, though I personally wouldn't buy a one of them for myself or our clients." I DO NOT SUGGEST NKA AS ANYTHING BUT A BAD JOKE. That's why I said, perhaps not clearly enough, " I ...wouldn't buy a one of them for myself or our clients."
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #275, November 3, 2014 [View instapost]
    I'm behind on writing about oil & gas for SA. My WSJ op-ed of Veterans Day, thanking veterans, no matter where they served, and family, who often bear as heavy a mental burden as those of us deployed, took my time. I'll try to get that analysis out today but not before I specifically thank all on this QC, many of whom I've communicated bcc with, for your and your family's service to this great nation. So great that even the current "leadership" will not be able to destroy it (try as they will...)
    Nov 13, 2014. 02:41 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #275, November 3, 2014 [View instapost]
    Time to play a little catch-up after a too-long absence from the 'Gades QC, Mercy. I already own PFXF, having switched from bonds to pfds for the anchoring position in our portfolios and last week started buying NE (and its confusing cousin in name only, NBL, for its Leviathan and many other plays.) I responded to your msg to me about PGSVY on the previous QC before I realized it was now history. I did the 10 knuckle push-ups this morning I promised to do to atone for my absence.
    Finally, since misery loves company, I'm taking a small position in EXXI today... :>))
    PS -- One reason I don't visit as often is that I have to wade through everyone's personal political proselytizing, predilections, pronouncements and peccadilloes to find something of investing interest. Like there aren't over 500,000 blogs for that kind of chatter already???
    Nov 12, 2014. 12:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Mea culpa, Mercy! Between voting, a Board meeting, 3 days of ski patrol refreshing, and polishing a WSJ article, I'm just getting back to my favorite Insta. I will do 10 knuckle pushups this morning in atonement...

    No, I buy s-l-o-w-l-y, a chunk at a time, so my first tranche of PGSVY was at 5.09, my next at 5.40 and I am currently awaiting a pullback to make my next buy. I think it was quite rude of other investors to see the obvious value here and push it up 20%. Now if only they have the courtesy to let it drop back to 5.60 or so, I can continue the march!
    Nov 12, 2014. 11:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    I may be early, D-inv, but I'm nibbling right now. In July, at 150, I wouldn't even give it a second glance. But at 52 and 13 x earnings, P/B at 1.5, a PEG of 9 and hovering just under the Graham #, and the rest of the world waking up to the potential of fracking, it looks as if the current malaise (and downturn in sales and earnings) may be temporary. Early indications are that the producers who switched to pure sand for fracking in order to save money are seeing lower production compared to peers still using proppants. I think CRR has legs. (OK, they may be a little wobbly still, but so were Secretariat's when he was this young!)
    Nov 2, 2014. 09:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Mercy, as you might suspect, given my ties to Norway and long-time rejection of Peak Oil, PGS is one of my firm's favorite old holdings that I, too, am about to re-enter. At 0.5 times book, 0.8 times sales, and now just below its Graham #, I'm hard-pressed to find a reason not to buy. (Perversely, I often look for reasons NOT to buy -- and am quite happy if I can't find any!) The US ADRs trade about 75,000 shares/day. Of course, that's on a $5 ADR...
    Nov 1, 2014. 07:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Warned You Early About This Correction, What Are We Doing Now? [View article]
    Ah, Telenor. A great company which most investors think is "Norwegian." They do have Norwegian engineering which takes them to the absolute top tier in competitiveness but as you know, MJ, 75% of their business comes from the other 30 markets they serve. It's a world and world-class company. After this shakeout, I may well join you in owning it again!
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Warned You Early About This Correction, What Are We Doing Now? [View article]
    Thank you for the elucidation, sir!

    Though I dare say, if their $500,000 portfolio "only" declined to $460,000 rather than the $450,000 of a 10% correction, there are some investors who would not mind an article suggesting they might want to protect themselves.

    You may believe it is a "nothing happens" event to lose $40,000, but some of us believe we worked too hard to make that amount to consider it nothing!

    Best of success in your investing endeavors,
    JS
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Warned You Early About This Correction, What Are We Doing Now? [View article]
    Hi Philo,

    I suggested you look at "IWM" which is all 2000 of the small caps in the Russell 2000. An easy mistake to make -- "IWN" is the value subset of that index. And after what I believe will be counter-rallies like today and a resumption of the short-term correction, I will be looking to *BUY* IW"N" or some of its components. Protecting through downturns is just protecting; buying faster-growing value small caps is where we've traditionally made our best returns!
    Oct 17, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #274, October 9, 2014 [View instapost]
    Regarding energy plays and the current market.

    I'm at a crossroads. I believe the market is over-priced and over-long and expect a stair-step correction. But for 40 years, I've always made money buying energy integrateds, E&Ps, drillers, equipment providers, field services, and transportation and storage firms (mostly pipelines.) My solution is to keep a large dollop of inverse ETFs while beginning to buy the now-falling energy sector.

    I especially like some of the deep-water drillers for next year. With SDRL's CFO claiming 2015 will be ugly, the industry is nicely depressed, with no one expecting much. Yet Pemex, which has kept 90% of the "proven and probable" reserves for themselves, has identified 109 exploration tracts for Round 1 bidding. All of those 109 tracts, not all at once of course, will need at least a jackup and some an ultra-deep rig. Brazil has so mis-managed its finances that it needs a nice big find to assure developed world bankers to keep lending for offshore. And so it goes around the world. The Bakken is nice but I imagine the remaining elephant discoveries (eclipsing a couple hundred or more Bakken rigs) will be found where we have least explored: offshore.

    As for currently declining oil prices, to everything there is a season. Every year, after the driving, construction, air conditioning and growing/harvesting seasons are drawing to a close, a "glut" collects and the linear thinking is that prices have nowhere to go but down. Until, of course, Europe, China, Japan, or the US experience a normal-to-heavy winter and the need for energy to heat our homes and workplaces and keep the lights on during the darker shorter days increases. To everything there is a season...
    Oct 10, 2014. 10:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Do Something (Anything!) - Just Sit There (Calmly) [View article]
    Artful Dodger, you certainly are living up to your chosen moniker! You wrote some platitudes without substance and when auto44 pointed out two rather important facts, you said you don't waste your time on people who are not serious!
    If you have a contribution to the literature or would care to share your performance results as those of us who contribute here do, I encourage you to write an article or state what you are buying or doing right now -- as I have done with this article expressing my concerns above, just before the market began at least a temporary decline.
    I wish you much success with your investing,
    JS
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    Tim and Mercy,

    I wasn't as smart as Mercy. Not only did I not start buying SDRL until the 19-23 range, I sold it in the mid-30s as it continued to climb. But the old adage of bulls and bears making money, pigs harvesting losses is ever-present in my thinking. I have a client who decided to buy more on his own all the way to 39 and change. In the portfolio we manage, he was out, and he gloated over the fact that in the funds he manages he was getting 10% yield and the stock was moving up. Regrettably he sold himself on the idea that he should continue buying on any dips, and did. He is so far underwater now that he needs NOx to breathe.

    Since I believe a market shakeout is long overdue, I won't re-purchase SDRL yet but, FWIW, the topic of our next Investor's Edge is going to be two very depressed industries: drillers and metals, specifically offshore drillers, more specifically deeeep offshore drillers. SDRL will be in that mix, though if they entire group continues to decline other, less leveraged firms are likely to be our ultimate first choices.
    Sep 29, 2014. 01:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #273, August 15 2014 [View instapost]
    I lightened up on, but did not sell all, PCI 7-14 days ago as I saw disturbing downside volume. FWIW, after Gross left and PCI declined further I loaded up again for every client for whom it would NOT trigger a wash sale. (I re-bought for those who held it in IRAs and those who had a profit on the sale; I have to wait 30 days after the sale date for the others.)

    My logic, as I wrote in my current SA article, is "PCI took a hit today as Bill Gross resigned / was fired / exited his role as CEO of PIMCO and took over / landed on his feet / was rescued by Janus Funds. Whoopee. We don't buy our bond funds because one in-the-limelight individual leaves a firm. In fact, Mr. Gross is not one of the five team managers of this fund. Indeed, all his departure from PIMCO did today was increase the discount from NAV closer to 10% and increase the (monthly payout) annual dividend yield closer to 8.5%."

    The lead manager for PCI wasn't Bill Gross, but a guy named Dan Ivascyn, Morningstar's Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year for 2013. Today, PIMCO named him the replacement for Bill Gross.

    Ya pays yer money and ya takes yer chances...
    Sep 29, 2014. 12:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Do Something (Anything!) - Just Sit There (Calmly) [View article]
    And a good day to you, Silverman!

    RiverPark is a fund family that takes managers who have been successful elsewhere and establishes mutual funds that allow them to do what they do best -- manage portfolios -- while RiverPark deals with the administrative and operational issues. RSIVX is one such fund. It is managed by David Sherman who was an executive and director with Leucadia National until 1996, when he left to found Cohanzick Management, LLC, the Sub-Adviser to RSIVX. He's been doing what he does for 18 years at Cohanzick.
    Sep 29, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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