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Joseph L. Shaefer  

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  • Where Is The Market Going? Separating The Signal From The Noise [View article]
    I most certainly did. And we followed our own advice and were subsequently stopped out of just about every position for either a small profit or a small loss when the market did a V-shaped rebound shortly thereafter. But we made that call based upon *years* of history and experience, not two days of data! :>)
    I'm honored you chose this for your first comment...
    Jan 8, 2015. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #277, January 7, 2015 [View instapost]
    Mercy, hearkening back to the previous Concentrator where you said you were avoiding the Norwegian oils, here's one of those contrarian POVs!

    I'm long PGSVY and STO.
    PGSVY at 5
    STO 1st tranche at 22 and change, next at 18.20, most recent at 16.65, blends just over 18.
    These aren't trades; I'll add more if the price declines. I'm OK having a little "dead money" that pays me divs of > 3x what Treasuries pay -- and which I consider just about as safe.
    I'm either "no fool like an old fool" or "crazy like a fox." I'll know which in a year! :>)
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Long PGSVY and STO.
    PGSVY at 5
    STO 1st tranche at 22 and change, next at 18.20, most recent at 16.65, blends just over 18.
    These aren't trades; I'll add more if the price declines. I'm OK having a little "dead money" that pays me divs of 3x + what Treasuries pay -- and which I consider just about as safe.
    I'm either "no fool like an old fool" or "crazy like a fox." I'll know which in a year! :>)
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    Hi Mike,

    Actually,Mike, almost all brokerage custodians of IRAs will allow the purchase of options. You must "qualify" based upon your stated experience, income level and goals but their logic is that buying an option is no more speculative than buying an equity. In both cases, your loss is limited to the amount you have invested.
    With long options you are trading leverage (good, if these stocks rebound) for time (limited to, in the cases above, 1 year or 2 years whereas a stock investment is "good" for many years as long as the company remains listed and in business.)
    Dec 31, 2014. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    :>)

    Mercy is forever young.

    I'm just an old soul!
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    What a wonderful blast from the past, Mercy. CUBA was a big deal when I lived in So Florida nearly 40 years ago. I think you were wise to scalp. Because of its name people who don't do DD are rushing to buy. It is really a Caribbean Basin fund, at least for now, with under-performing Colombian airline Copa its biggest holding and other names like Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Lines among the top 10. The cruise lines have been good investments but adding Havana as a port of call isn't going to double their stocks!

    Like you, I am looking forward to the announcement. I have been "on" Cuba (Guantanamo) but never "in" Cuba. I think both our economies will benefit from a thaw -- AND it is a long-overdue geopolitical plus!
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat #276, November 27, 2014 [View instapost]
    Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (Charles Mackay, 1841...)
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    I wouldn't want to leave the impression this is as easy as opening and closing a door. But the oil and gas companies are really good at this game; they have had to be in order to survive with such volatile-trading products. So they will keep a skeleton staff on some that are pumping minimally, then open the valves on those first; double down on staff at x number more; open them; hire in anticipation of the trend continuing to open more, etc. They have the ability to increase and decrease incrementally, well by well, field by field, state by state.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    auto, interesting facts I intended to include in the article but it was way too late at night and I left them out. The top 10 *nat gas* producers in the USA are:
    #1 ExxonMobil -- thanks to XOM's acquisition of XTO (the old Cross Timbers) in 2010, XOM produces more than any other firm.
    #4 BP -- BP is in 80 countries so we tend to forget how big it is in the US
    #7 ConocoPhillips -- it may have interests in 30 countries but it's still homegrown US oil & gas
    #8 Chevron -- CVX is no slouch in natgas either!

    So we can have our cake and eat it, too. We're buying what are thought of by most investors as Big Oil with these companies, but they are really "two-fers." At these prices we're buying a whole lot of natgas on the cheap, as well.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    True -- and that's why you see internationals BP, TOT, and SU as separate options purchases. Personally, I *want* to own an ETF that has XOM and CVX as its touchstones, with the other larger US firms right behind them.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    Of course, easyrob. We didn't buy them all at once, but the range was: a high of 7.70 and a low of 6.90. We are therefore down slightly on the ones purchased at the higher end of the range...
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    PS, Mercy --

    I see that Jakob Stausholm, board member of Statoil, bought 17,400 shares of STO at a price of 131.51 NOK per share yesterday. That's 50% more than he held the day before yesterday...

    (He probably wishes he'd waited one more day -- but, like us, he is likely building a portfolio for the future, not trying to guess the lows!)

    PS -- The furthest option I find is for July, hardly a LEAP...
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    Too early -- and not at this point selling anything. If we have become slightly longer term investors than we initially expected, the discipline and lack of trading will serve us well, I believe.
    We have only a token position in STO right now; just as I was writing it up this deluge began and I chose others to begin buying. Yes, I agree their 2015 doesn't look brilliant unless--
    1. Their Marcellus, Eagle Ford and Bakken properties prove more fecund and/or lower cost to produce than they are currently projecting, a distinct possibility, or
    2. An unexpected geopolitical event occurs that raises the price of oil globally. It could be as extreme as a terror attack taking production offline in part of Saudi's Ghawar or as benign as Venezuela exporting way less to prevent the overthrow of the Maduro government.

    I have to hold to my 15% in any one sector discipline, but at any cheaper price I'd at least have to buy a few STO LEAPs!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    Well-said and all true, Thucydides. Your standards of research and analysis bring credit upon your namesake!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas: USA 1, OPEC 0 [View article]
    You know, I wondered about that report, which came straight from the state of North Dakota. Wannabes, I guess! And I knew that if anyone shared my skepticism and had the actual numbers, it would be one of my friends or readers from the Great State of Texas! :>))

    Thank you!
    Dec 5, 2014. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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